The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Lordmandeep]

I think the next part will cross a billion as well...

[peludo]

I think the next part will cross a billion as well...

 

I wish you are right. Waiting for the trailer...

[Michael Seng Wah]

Will teaser come out attaching to Man of Steel?

Hahaha~

[Gazz]

Hobbit passes $1 billion WW but fails to be the biggest box office hit of all time... must be a flop then. 

 

It's a shame that whenever I look at this thread and many others on this forum, we see talk of film devolve into gossip column like bitching on the age/ appearance of actors/actresses and imaginary rivalries between films and actors that barely have a connection at all. If only Boxoffice.com had an ignore function!

 

As for The Hobbit, well I'm glad it passed this final milestone despite how little that means anymore and I think that's about what it deserves in it's place in the franchise. It was a pleasant return to Jackson's version of Middle-Earth and I'm always up for that, but like others I find it hard to judge without having the other two films on my lap.

[kayumanggi]

Hobbit passes $1 billion WW but fails to be the biggest box office hit of all time... must be a flop then. 

 

It's a shame that whenever I look at this thread and many others on this forum, we see talk of film devolve into gossip column like bitching on the age/ appearance of actors/actresses and imaginary rivalries between films and actors that barely have a connection at all. If only Boxoffice.com had an ignore function!

 

As for The Hobbit, well I'm glad it passed this final milestone despite how little that means anymore and I think that's about what it deserves in it's place in the franchise. It was a pleasant return to Jackson's version of Middle-Earth and I'm always up for that, but like others I find it hard to judge without having the other two films on my lap.

 

We do have your honor.

[Gazz]

I was looking for the ignore function not too long ago and couldn't quite find the bugger.

 

If you could point me in the right direction it would make my forum viewing experience phenomenally better!

[snitch]

Yeah i'd use it to, fishnets has ruined this thread and many others that are Hobbit related.

[peludo]

I was looking for the ignore function not too long ago and couldn't quite find the bugger.

 

If you could point me in the right direction it would make my forum viewing experience phenomenally better!

 

Yeah i'd use it to, fishnets has ruined this thread and many others that are Hobbit related.

 

In your personal menu, where appears the options "My profile", "My content", ... the last option is "Manage ignore prefs". In that option you can ignore posts, signatures, chats, ... of each user.

[kayumanggi]

I was looking for the ignore function not too long ago and couldn't quite find the bugger.

 

If you could point me in the right direction it would make my forum viewing experience phenomenally better!

 

 

In your personal menu, where appears the options "My profile", "My content", ... the last option is "Manage ignore prefs". In that option you can ignore posts, signatures, chats, ... of each user.

 

There!

[Gazz]

Thank you both kindly.

 

Didn't realise it would be tightly tucked away in the depths of 'My Profile'.  

[Newbie]

Fishnets, and really anyone else, why on earth would you expect the Hobbit to best Fotr adjusted ww total?

 

In the 11 years since FOTR, how much as the box office changed?  Some markets have expanded, a bunch have also shrunk.

 

Look at the decade decline in box office attendance since 2001 in its biggest two markets (US and Canada)?  Its substantial.  Not even Imax, and 3 D pricing can have the studios generate that much in sales, let alone in individual tickets.  Then look at the data from the FOTR, what markets did it do great in, and what markets did it do ok in.  It did great in markets that haven't been part of a massive expansion.  Europe LOTR killed, but Europe hasn't seen a real expansion in the last decade, its been closer to the US which has shrunk.

 

Even using the date of RoTK, its been 9 years since one of these Tolkien films have been released.  What projects that have had that long between entries, manage to outperform the original in adjusted dollars?

 

Besides films that weren't blockbusters, where its much easier to manage a big increase, I can only think of one film that has had a decade plus separating the first version, and its prequel, sequel, or reboot.  And thats Star Trek, and while it was the #2 film the year it came out in 79 (Kramer vrs Kramer was bigger), it still wasn't a blockbuster.

 

So what other properties with a long stretch between original entires has managed to best its adjusted value?  What am I missing that makes the Hobbit missing it, so bad?

 

I also never expected it to make over a billion overseas (that we agree on).  I expected this number overseas (700 million), and about 50 million more US (I was expected higher then FoTR, and TT, but not RoTK).  But for me, 50 million off of a guess of a WW total of 1.050 billion isn't that big of a margin or error.

Edited March 8, 2013 by Newbie

[peludo]

Fishnets, and really anyone else, why on earth would you expect the Hobbit to best Fotr adjusted ww total?

 

In the 11 years since FOTR, how much as the box office changed?  Some markets have expanded, a bunch have also shrunk.

 

Look at the decade decline in box office attendance since 2001 in its biggest two markets (US and Canada)?  Its substantial.  Not even Imax, and 3 D pricing can have the studios generate that much in sales, let alone in individual tickets.  Then look at the data from the FOTR, what markets did it do great in, and what markets did it do ok in.  It did great in markets that haven't been part of a massive expansion.  Europe LOTR killed, but Europe hasn't seen a real expansion in the last decade, its been closer to the US which has shrunk.

 

Even using the date of RoTK, its been 9 years since one of these Tolkien films have been released.  What projects that have had that long between entries, manage to outperform the original in adjusted dollars?

 

Besides films that weren't blockbusters, where its much easier to manage a big increase, I can only think of one film that has had a decade plus separating the first version, and its prequel, sequel, or reboot.  And thats Star Trek, and while it was the #2 film the year it came out in 79 (Kramer vrs Kramer was bigger), it still wasn't a blockbuster.

 

So what other properties with a long stretch between original entires has managed to best its adjusted value?  What am I missing that makes the Hobbit missing it, so bad?

 

I also never expected it to make over a billion overseas (that we agree on).  I expected this number overseas (700 million), and about 50 million more US (I was expected higher then FoTR, and TT, but not RoTK).  But for me, 50 million off of a guess of a WW total of 1.050 billion isn't that big of a margin or error.

I think fishnets refers to TH has not surpassed FOTR DOM unadjusted, not WW adjusted. FOTR WW adjusted should be about 1.3-1.4 billion.

 

The theory about reaching 1 billion OS (at least mine), was based in sevral factors. It was hard and it had to work very good everywhere, but asuming a logical drop in attendance in developed markets (35-40%) as you well said given the attendance crisis in European markets, that drop would be compensated with inflation, 3D, expanding markets and wide better exchange rate (Euro, Yen and AUD, mainly). Just with exchange rate factor, FOTR should have done 150 million more today easily.

 

My main calculation mistakes have come from Japan (I read some 50-60 predictions, but I think no one thought it would not even reach 20. I was thinking in something close to 100, given the higher exchange rate and 3D. I recognize it was very optimistic from my side), and expanding markets: China (coming from 2004 ROTK's 10 million it was not crazy to think in 100, and it will not reach 50), Brazil and Mexico (I expected 30-35 million from both), and maybe another 15 million from Russia. From these markets it should have reached another 150 million. Adding this to a very strong drop in attendance in US, Europe and Australia (close to 50%. And even higher in some countries) has caused this number (which still is very remarkable).

 

Probably, quite bad critics (unfounded, in my opinion) about long run and 48fps have influenced in lower attendance. I hope the TH2, with a strong trailer and more action can attract more people or, at least, to reach the same amount than the first part. Then, TH3 will increase. Probably not to 1 billion OS, but 850-900. We will see.

[Newbie]

If Fishnets was talking domestic, then it really makes no sense, as teh number of tickets sold yearly have typically decline throughout time, and have certainly dropped since 2001.  Enough so that films even with getting a bump from limited Imax, and for partial higher prices for some tickets due to 3D still don't equal the sales of that year.

 

And in at least modern film, where returning to a property is common, what film with a ten year gap as beat the adjusted number of its original?  I Seriously I can only think of Trek,a nd the neither of the Trek films in question were blockbusters.

 

But by the same token I didn't understand why anyone thought the Hobbit should score outlandish numbers.  Most of the markets the LotR films did great in, weren't the markets that saw growth overseas, so I certainly saw no pattern for truly out of the world overseas performance. 

 

And even more to the point, the source material is known, is well known, and is not considered anywhere near the quality of work as Lord of the Rings (and its still considered quality, but not one of the most important works of the 20 century).

 

I wasn't that surprised by Japan, as many US films have lately done almost nothing there, and looking back at several other places like South america, it hit about 10% less then I was expecting there, but thats about it.  I mean China is going to do what, six times what Fellowship did.  I only expected 5 times better.

 

I already stated my guess was 1.05 billion, and I will be about at the end of the run about 45 million off.  But my range, was 900 million to 1.2 billion (and that is if the markets that I didn't expect anything from actually did do some real business).  I thought that upper range was very unlikely.  Just as I thought 900 would be really hard to do.

[Plain Old Tele]

Well, I wildly over-guessed it -- by around $70m domestically at least. My fatal flaw was taking the drop from ROTK admissions, and assuming it would be less than it was. I figured the significant ticket premium of inflation + 3D would basically cover the dollar amount of the reduced audience.

[John Marston]

I can understand why people are underwhelmed by its performance, hell I am still kind of underwhelmed. However, there are still two movies left for redemption and it seems lots of people are trying to make it look like a bigger failure than it is. 

[Michael Seng Wah]

I can understand why people are underwhelmed by its performance, hell I am still kind of underwhelmed. However, there are still two movies left for redemption and it seems lots of people are trying to make it look like a bigger failure than it is. 

 

Who knows that actually after 2014, Hobbits will be the first trilogy with all entries grossing more than a billion?

= NEW RECORD = Hahaha~

[peludo]

If Fishnets was talking domestic, then it really makes no sense, as teh number of tickets sold yearly have typically decline throughout time, and have certainly dropped since 2001.  Enough so that films even with getting a bump from limited Imax, and for partial higher prices for some tickets due to 3D still don't equal the sales of that year.

 

And in at least modern film, where returning to a property is common, what film with a ten year gap as beat the adjusted number of its original?  I Seriously I can only think of Trek,a nd the neither of the Trek films in question were blockbusters.

 

But by the same token I didn't understand why anyone thought the Hobbit should score outlandish numbers.  Most of the markets the LotR films did great in, weren't the markets that saw growth overseas, so I certainly saw no pattern for truly out of the world overseas performance. 

 

And even more to the point, the source material is known, is well known, and is not considered anywhere near the quality of work as Lord of the Rings (and its still considered quality, but not one of the most important works of the 20 century).

 

I wasn't that surprised by Japan, as many US films have lately done almost nothing there, and looking back at several other places like South america, it hit about 10% less then I was expecting there, but thats about it.  I mean China is going to do what, six times what Fellowship did.  I only expected 5 times better.

 

I already stated my guess was 1.05 billion, and I will be about at the end of the run about 45 million off.  But my range, was 900 million to 1.2 billion (and that is if the markets that I didn't expect anything from actually did do some real business).  I thought that upper range was very unlikely.  Just as I thought 900 would be really hard to do.

Domestically, Phantom Menace (16 years gap) and Indiana Jones 4 (19 years) dropped between 5% and 10% in admissions since last installment (both franchises equally loved as LOTR). Even if we had applied a 10% to the lower attended (FOTR), TH should have got about 50 million admissions, enough to reach 400 million.

 

In Japan, there have recently been many examples of big franchises growing since LOTR time (2001-2003): POTC, Mission Impossible, HP, MIB... For some reason, TH has not had the same appealing.

 

In order to say this could reach 1 billion OS (or at least TA/DH2 numbers), it did not need to grow in 2003 developed markets, but growing in some markets where was much lower 10 years ago: Australia (because of exchange rate. Today is about 40% higher), big expanding markets (China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico). In these 5 markets it has grown 90 million since ROTK. I expected, at least, double of that. In China, just some months ago, even no-fans were expecting in China's forum about 80-90 million for this. Release date (piracy because excesive delay and being released after New Year's Holiday, when people has no money) has killed its posibilities. We will see if this changes for next two movies.

 

Asuming that it would drop in admissions (I had calculated about 35-40%) to stay flat in dollars in developed markets, and the incredible crash in Japan, you already have 850-900.

 

Of course, this is boxoffice-fiction given we already have final numbers, and you were right and me wrong, but I do not think it was so crazy to think about those numbers.

[Noctis]

How much has TH1 decreased in admissions from RoTK?

 

40%?

[Rudolf]

Suppose they would have made The Hobbit first in 2 parts at the time LotR was actually made. Let us further assume that it would have made slightly less than what LotR actually made. What would LotR now make in 3 sequels?

 

I guess the BO chances that way would have been much bigger.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Rudolf

[htall90]

Domestically, Phantom Menace (16 years gap) and Indiana Jones 4 (19 years) dropped between 5% and 10% in admissions since last installment (both franchises equally loved as LOTR). Even if we had applied a 10% to the lower attended (FOTR), TH should have got about 50 million admissions, enough to reach 400 million.

 

In Japan, there have recently been many examples of big franchises growing since LOTR time (2001-2003): POTC, Mission Impossible, HP, MIB... For some reason, TH has not had the same appealing.

 

In order to say this could reach 1 billion OS (or at least TA/DH2 numbers), it did not need to grow in 2003 developed markets, but growing in some markets where was much lower 10 years ago: Australia (because of exchange rate. Today is about 40% higher), big expanding markets (China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico). In these 5 markets it has grown 90 million since ROTK. I expected, at least, double of that. In China, just some months ago, even no-fans were expecting in China's forum about 80-90 million for this. Release date (piracy because excesive delay and being released after New Year's Holiday, when people has no money) has killed its posibilities. We will see if this changes for next two movies.

 

Asuming that it would drop in admissions (I had calculated about 35-40%) to stay flat in dollars in developed markets, and the incredible crash in Japan, you already have 850-900.

 

Of course, this is boxoffice-fiction given we already have final numbers, and you were right and me wrong, but I do not think it was so crazy to think about those numbers.

I agree but i don't think the Indiana jones trilogy is as well loved as star wars and LOTR i think there beloved in a league of there own.