Aristis Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Some thoughts on AEG: title / OD / OW (5-day) / OWeek (7-day) / (multipler from OW) Av1 333k 1,56M 2,04M 4,51M (x2,89) Av2 303k 1,44M 1,93M 4,33M (x2,24) Av3 405k 1,84M 2,57M 5,14M (x2,79) Low: Av4 500k 2,00M 2,70M 5,5M (x2,75) (everything below that would be disappointing to me... 2M+ for the OW will happen.) High: Av4 600k 2,40M 3,10M 6,00M (x2,50) title / €-gross* / $-gross* / ATP € / ATP $ / XR Av1 €29,87M $37,77M €6,62 $8,37 1,26 Av2 €30,82M $34,27M €7,12 $7,91 1,11 Av3 €40,58M $47,69M €7,89 $9,28 1,18 Low: Av4 €44,00M $49,30M €8,00 $8,95 1,12 High: Av4 €48,00M $53,80M €8,00 $8,95 1,12 *Grosses are from BOM so they should at least be *close* to the real gross. Even my high end may be low but for now I can't see the craziness happening in Europe. AIW already was big. We will see more wenn numbers are incoming Sadly Euro is weaker than for AIW, so EG has to be even stronger. (Probably I'm not conservative anymore when first numbers from Europe arrive ) 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 BOX-OFFICE @boxofficenuls 2m2 minutes ago More Avec 18 021 entrées paris 14h #AvengersEndgame réalise le 3ème démarrage de tous les temps derrière Spiderman3 et Spectre #marvel @DisneyFR Translated from French by Microsoft With 18 021 entries Paris 14h #AvengersEndgame realizes the 3rd start of all time behind Spiderman3 and spectre #marvel @DisneyFR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 (edited) So cinedirectors just did this (3,5M to) 3,8M OWeek prediction. That would be shocking, 3rd biggest 1st week ever tied with TFA (3,801M)... behind Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis (4,38M) and Les Bronzés (3,91M), both being french movies. And 48% above AIW. (--> http://www.jpbox-office.com/demarrage.php) Here's the full TOP10 forecast (CM still going strong...): 1 Avengers - Endgame 3 800 000 New 3,800 2 After 345 000 - 45 % 0,970 3 La malédiction de la dame blanche 205 000 - 35 % 0,521 4 Dumbo 170 000 - 35 % 1,965 5 Tanguy, le retour 120 000 - 45 % 0,822 6 Le parc des merveilles 120 000 - 35 % 1,056 7 Shazam ! 115 000 - 35 % 1,029 8 Simetierre 110 000 - 40 % 0,680 9 Royal corgi 90 000 - 40 % 0,522 10 Captain Marvel 85 000 - 25 % 3,256 (http://www.cine-directors.net/boxbis.htm) However, here's the *but*... They tend to be very optimistic (e.g. for Serial (Bad) Weddings 2 they predicted 2,5M and it became 2,15M, the same drop in actuals would result in 3,27M... Isn't great math though ) The numbers we have are for Paris (18k) and periphery (49,3k). For AIW they were 10,7k (AEG up 68%) and 34,4k (+43%). It went on to have 405k on OD. Having the same multipler AEG would result in: Paris 10,7k ---> 680k periphery 34,4k ---> 580k (with SM2 as comparison it's the aother way round with Paris --> 560k and periph --> 760k...) Thus OD might be around 600k. As for OW: AIW had ODx4,55 which would result in 2,7M+ (probably not happening). AEG may get ODx4 for 2,4M. (--> $21,5M) For OWeek: AIW had 725k midweek with 1st May being on Tuesday (I think...) which boosted its Mo+Tue midweek. Since it's AEG it might be able to top AIW that despite that for around 750k? and 3,15M. Total: AIW total was 2xOWeek so maybe 6,3M. title / OD / OW (5-day) / OWeek (7-day) / (multipler from OW) Av1 333k 1,56M 2,04M 4,51M (x2,89) Av2 303k 1,44M 1,93M 4,33M (x2,24) Av3 405k 1,84M 2,57M 5,14M (x2,79) Av4 600k 2,40M 3,15M 6,30M (x2,63) That would be my thoughts without knowing the CineDirectors prediction. But they probably know french BO better than me, so... Edited April 24, 2019 by Aristis 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) In case someone's interested in last WE 18.04. - 21.04. 1 522.778 --- 522.778 1 After 2 250.000 --- 250.000 1 Llorona 3 184.000 -42 1.718.519 4 Dumbo 4 149.576 -60 636.210 2 Tanguy 2 5 139.786 -54 525.040 2 Pet Sematary 6 135.686 -38 885.951 3 Wonder Park 7 130.000 -42 868.302 3 Shazam! 8 103.883 -48 388.381 2 Royal Corgi 9 97.631 --- 97.631 1 Just a Gigolo 10 81.800 -28 3.140.252 7 Captain Marvel Great OW for After. May get around 1,5M. Dumbo is still on its way to become the 4th biggest Disney LA remake behind Alice (4,54M), TJB (3,72M) and BATB (3,57M) and in front of Maleficent (2,05M) with 2,2M+. CM is just 90k shy of passing GOTG2 to become the 6th biggest MCU. It could get to 3,35M. Top10 2019: 1 6.630.781 Serial (Bad) Wedding 2 2 3.353.582 HTTYD3 3 3.140.252 Captain Marvel 4 2.250.960 Ralph2 5 2.032.323 Alita 6 1.937.893 Green Book 7 1.848.771 The Mule 8 1.733.124 Creed 2 9 1.718.519 Dumbo 10 1.688.192 Nicky Larson et le parfum de Cupidon After this WE AEG should really be 4th on this list... TOP OW 2019: 1 1.852.556 Serial (Bad) Wedding 2 2 1.125.726 Captain Marvel 3 1.020.715 HTTYD3 4 735.298 Creed 2 5 687.083 Ralph2 6 625.373 Alita 7 541.790 The Mule 8 510.579 Nicky Larson AEG will surely be first here, even increasing very little from AIW (1,84M). http://www.insidekino.de/BO/F2018.htm Edited April 25, 2019 by Aristis 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 13 hours ago, terrestrial said: BOX-OFFICE @boxofficenuls 2m2 minutes ago More Avec 18 021 entrées paris 14h #AvengersEndgame réalise le 3ème démarrage de tous les temps derrière Spiderman3 et Spectre #marvel @DisneyFR Translated from French by Microsoft With 18 021 entries Paris 14h #AvengersEndgame realizes the 3rd start of all time behind Spiderman3 and spectre #marvel @DisneyFR Meh I mean, behind Spidey 3 is ok (it was a holiday) but behind Spectre? 😕 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 13 hours ago, Aristis said: The numbers we have are for Paris (18k) and periphery (49,3k). For AIW they were 10,7k (AEG up 68%) and 34,4k (+43%). It went on to have 405k on OD. 1 hour ago, Fullbuster said: Meh Compare it with what belongs in the same 'group' and do not expect the 'impossible' and you will do without disappointments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonenash Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Fullbuster said: Meh I mean, behind Spidey 3 is ok (it was a holiday) but behind Spectre? 😕 hi spectre was also on holiday plus it had a ton tueday presales into the opening day in France doing +600K admissions opening day is very hard especially on no holidays.... But i heard the opening day could be +660K so top 8 all time if true we ll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Spoiler post is deleted on main Avengers End Game thread from page 573. However several viewed (I missed it by 5 seconds). Be advised if you are truly concerned about spoilers I'm not sure any thread is safe from trolls so be careful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 44 minutes ago, Bonenash said: hi spectre was also on holiday plus it had a ton tueday presales into the opening day in France doing +600K admissions opening day is very hard especially on no holidays.... But i heard the opening day could be +660K so top 8 all time if true we ll see. 660K+ Admission Still On Number 8th At France BO ... 😮 😮 i Thought With 660K Movie Might Enter in Top 4 Of All Time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerem4502 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 OD 692 142 admissions !!! 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) 35 minutes ago, jerem4502 said: OD 692 142 admissions !!! This is for all of France? And IW? Edited April 25, 2019 by FlashMaster659 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: This is for all of France? And IW? Yea for all France. And IW was 405,058 so Endgame’s OD is 71% over IW’s OD 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: This is for all of France? And IW? Yes OD Admissions in France .. (2nd Best Start For A Superhero Film After Spiderman3 804,354) IW Had 405,058 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said: Yea for all France. And IW was 405,058 so Endgame’s OD is 71% over IW’s OD What About in Euros ..? is it Over 8 M + ..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: What About in Euros ..? is it Over 8 M + ..? Havent seen any gross reported yet, only admissions. Will have to wait for Deadline’s or Cine-Directors report or hope that Rth pops by and gives that info. I found the following OD for some non SH movies Spectre - 850,000 (Holiday) Dead mans chest - 693,303 SW: ROTS - 641,799 The Force Awakens - 619,000 The Last Jedi - 504,000 Endgame has the 9th highest OD in terms of admissions Edited April 25, 2019 by ZeeSoh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: What About in Euros ..? is it Over 8 M + ..? No, France has low TP, probably around €5,6M and $6,2M. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) Here's the best ODs of all time in France: http://www.jpbox-office.com/1jour.php Keep in mind, that the other movies pretty much all openend on a holiday or during summer holidays, where the whole country had school off. Yesterday, many areas were already back on school. Edited April 25, 2019 by Poseidon 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linkinitouille Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) I'll also add that OD nearly always include previews. Spectre has 250k in previews in its OD, allowing it to claim the biggest opening day ever. But the best "raw" opening day is still Spider-Man 3 as the May 1st holiday release was already a world premiere and therefore had no previews. On a non-holiday without previews, Ice Age 3 claims it, but it released on the "fête du cinéma", which is a nationwide event happening in late June/early July where the ticket price is much lower for everyone (it's currently €4) - that event allowed Incredibles 2 to get into that top 10 last summer. Without any holiday, previews or fête du cinéma event, Harry Potter 5 has it (Harry Potter 7.2 had 100k in previews). I'll also add that despite all of this, there's a possibility that Welcome to the Sticks, in its nationwide opening week, might have cracked 1 million admissions on a single day, but not on its opening day (maybe Saturday or Sunday). Edited April 25, 2019 by Linkinitouille 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Aristis said: No, France has low TP, probably around €5,6M and $6,2M. Yeah Its $6 Million ... Collections Came .. Thnxx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 $ 4.2M on Friday?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...