anti-Pedantic Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 12/20/2021 at 9:28 PM, LPLC said: At this point, 5M admits are lock and 7M admissions are unlikely, let's try 6M admits in the end. On 12/20/2021 at 9:49 PM, LPLC said: Unlikely, AEG's first weekend was almost 800k more admissions than NWH, but be careful I'm not saying it's impossible with huge legs (3.5x legs) and with the good reviews and the right WOM it's still possible (I would say 25% chance it will happen), however I'm sure that despite the Christmas holidays, the film will be more frontloaded than you think. If it reaches 6 million admissions I will already be very happy, that's the goal we should try to aim for for On 12/27/2021 at 9:15 PM, LPLC said: 7 millions admissions are now 100% dead. The objective remains 6 millions admits. On 1/3/2022 at 10:47 PM, LPLC said: Not impossible but it's unlikely, the best scenario I can see is 6,9M just under AEG On 1/10/2022 at 9:47 PM, LPLC said: 6,75M I think On 1/24/2022 at 2:27 AM, LPLC said: I think now NWH is close to 6.6M admissions (or maybe even surpassed that mark this Sunday), 6.75M admits seems locked, now let's see if it can surpass AEG (6.943M admissions) and especially 7M admits. On 1/27/2022 at 4:14 PM, LPLC said: Let's try 7M if it's possible, no big competition and holidays in less than 3 weeks makes me optimistic Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said: Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop. It might be enoying for you to have someone low-bal a movies end total but different people have different tendencies. LPLC lowballs movies a bit often, meaning his numbers are often the low end of what the movie might do. But in some cases movie do have worse legs than expected and at that point LPLC's numbers probably are very close to the real numbers. It's not because someone likes to causious with their predicting that it's bad / not credible. Some people like to be causious, some people like to be bold, some take a road in between. As long as you take in to account people's prediciton tendencies the information they give you is still valuable. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I agree that the info is still valuable if you know whether someone is a pessimistic and you should adjust their nums up or an optimist and you should adjust their nums down -- but newer people aren't going to know and ideally shouldn't have to try to keep track of those idiosyncratic prediction tendencies of long time members. Really it is best to always aim for pure accuracy rather than either conservative or aggressiveness. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) I mean ofcourse if you want to get accurate projection, just follow me. 🤷♂️ Edited February 3, 2022 by charlie Jatinder 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: I mean ofcourse if you want to get accurate projection, just follow me. 🤷♂️ Done ✅ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: I mean ofcourse if you want to get accurate projection, just follow me. 🤷♂️ I seem to recall some rather low numbers from you as well from the first few weeks 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said: I seem to recall some rather low numbers from you as well from the first few weeks I am sorry. you may be confusing me with some variant of mine. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MG10 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: I am sorry. you may be confusing me with some variant of mine. Charlie the Conqueror, or he who predicts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anti-Pedantic Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 hours ago, pepsa said: It might be enoying for you to have someone low-bal a movies end total but different people have different tendencies. LPLC lowballs movies a bit often, meaning his numbers are often the low end of what the movie might do. But in some cases movie do have worse legs than expected and at that point LPLC's numbers probably are very close to the real numbers. It's not because someone likes to causious with their predicting that it's bad / not credible. Some people like to be causious, some people like to be bold, some take a road in between. As long as you take in to account people's prediciton tendencies the information they give you is still valuable. Not annoying, its just that he says things in absolute ways sometimes. I am just saying he should make some charts to show, not everyday but once every few weeks when he predicts. Also, Pessimism is good. Its just that He is there puttin effort in almost every thread of all countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said: Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop. 24 minutes ago, anti-Pedantic said: Not annoying, its just that he says things in absolute ways sometimes. I am just saying he should make some charts to show, not everyday but once every few weeks when he predicts. Also, Pessimism is good. Its just that He is there puttin effort in almost every thread of all countries. If you don't like someone's post you can put them on ignore. If their post is breaking a forum rule then report them. But don't tell someone what to do. They are perfectly welcome to analyse things however they want and be as pessimistic or optimistic about numbers. If you don't like someone's analysis then why not do it yourself and see how you fare? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said: Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop. Thank you for finding my old sentences, it must have taken you a long time and it allows you to realize how incredible the NWH run was Sorry you don't like my work, I'll try to do better in the next few weeks. Of course I can't always be precise because the figures change week after week and it's true that I said that after the opening weekend that 6m admissions was very possible and 7m was possible but unlikely. However, I hadn't taken into account the fact that there was no competition at all and that the holidays are coming so quickly. Without these parameters, we might not have reached this milestone. You know it's hard to predict accurately and I try to do my best and if you think I have no credibility then as the others say make your predictions and your charts yourself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said: Not annoying, its just that he says things in absolute ways sometimes. I am just saying he should make some charts to show, not everyday but once every few weeks when he predicts. Also, Pessimism is good. Its just that He is there puttin effort in almost every thread of all countries. Yes I try to be active in several threads of this forum and I don't think it's forbidden in a forum to share things or ask questions ? At worst just ignore me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 BOX-OFFICE prévisionnel (du 2 au 8 février 2022) Rang Titre Entrées Variation hebdo Cumul (Millions) Budget Nbre de salles 1 Super-héros malgré lui 580 000 New 0,580 15,4 M€ 688 2 Vaillante 250 000 New 0,250 - M€ 640 3 Les jeunes amants 160 000 New 0,160 5,1 M€ 296 4 Presque 115 000 - 25 % 0,266 3,8 M€ 443 5 Adieu Monsieur Haffmann 105 000 - 25 % 0,675 11,8 M€ 934 6 Spider-man : No way home 100 000 - 35 % 6,904 200 M$ 584 7 Les promesses 90 000 - 30 % 0,220 4,6 M€ 333 8 Nightmare alley 65 000 - 35 % 0,305 - M$ 291 9 Ouistreham 65 000 - 20 % 0,358 5 M€ 625 10 My hero academia - World heroes' mission 60 000 - 55 % 0,189 - M€ 393 Just before the holidays start, the competition arrives and "Super-héros malgré lui" should easily start first and NWH should break out of the top 5 this week after a 7th week as #1 : - We can hope for 1.5M admits in the end for "Super-héros malgré lui" - NWH should reach the 6.9M admissions milestone this week, it will exceed AEG (6.945M admissions) next week and then the final milestone of 7M admits in 2 weeks - My Hero Academia should end up around 250k admissions, obviously far from the 760k admits of Demon Slayer (I hope you like this table @anti-Pedantic) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, LPLC said: - My Hero Academia should end up around 250k admissions, obviously far from the 760k admits of Demon Slayer My Hero Academia never made up to the expectations. I have seen how it was expected to pass $10M OW in US but it finals hardly passed $12.7M. BTW, what is the comparison to it's previous films? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MG10 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, LPLC said: Thank you for finding my old sentences, it must have taken you a long time and it allows you to realize how incredible the NWH run was Sorry you don't like my work, I'll try to do better in the next few weeks. Of course I can't always be precise because the figures change week after week and it's true that I said that after the opening weekend that 6m admissions was very possible and 7m was possible but unlikely. However, I hadn't taken into account the fact that there was no competition at all and that the holidays are coming so quickly. Without these parameters, we might not have reached this milestone. You know it's hard to predict accurately and I try to do my best and if you think I have no credibility then as the others say make your predictions and your charts yourself. Not to mention that without the postponing of Morbius, Cyrano and the French film whose I don't remember the name it probably wouldn't have passed Endgame and the 7M admission. And obviously a simple user like us don't expect sudden changes in the release dates when we make predictions Edited February 3, 2022 by MG10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Issac Newton said: My Hero Academia never made up to the expectations. I have seen how it was expected to pass $10M OW in US but it finals hardly passed $12.7M. BTW, what is the comparison to it's previous films? Don't find datas sorry 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 59 minutes ago, MG10 said: Not to mention that without the postponing of Morbius, Cyrano and the French film whose I don't remember the name it probably wouldn't have passed Endgame and the 7M admission. And obviously a simple user like us don't expect sudden changes in the release dates when we make predictions Yes "Qu'est ce qu'on a tous fait au bon Dieu" (the huge French movie that you mentioned) was supposed to be released yesterday normally and its postponement will benefit NWH which will face less competition than expected, just like the postponed release of Morbius and it is true that it is difficult to make predictions when things change during the run Edited February 3, 2022 by LPLC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MG10 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 hours ago, LPLC said: Yes "Qu'est ce qu'on a tous fait au bon Dieu" (the huge French movie that you mentioned) was supposed to be released yesterday normally and its postponement will benefit NWH which will face less competition than expected, just like the postponed release of Morbius and it is true that it is difficult to make predictions when things change during the run Ah yeah thanks for the name, I see that the first two films of the "series" have grossed about $100M and $50M in France (with 12.3M and 6.7M admissions!) and were also released in Italy with decent results, really not bad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 -28%, holidays start now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 BOX-OFFICE France (du 2 au 8 février 2022) (Prévisions) Rang TITRE Entrées Variation hebdo Cumul (Millions) Budget Nbre de copies Moy / Copie 1 Super-héros malgré lui 560 000 New 0,560 15,4 M€ 688 838 2 Vaillante 260 000 New 0,260 - M€ 640 406 3 Les jeunes amants 150 000 New 0,150 5,1 M€ 296 507 4 Presque 125 000 - 17 % 0,276 3,8 M€ 485 258 5 Spider-man : No way home 110 000 - 27 % 6,914 200 M$ 591 186 6 Adieu Monsieur Haffmann 90 000 - 35 % 0,660 11,8 M€ 866 104 7 Les promesses 85 000 - 35 % 0,215 4,6 M€ 380 224 8 Nightmare alley 75 000 - 23 % 0,315 - M$ 443 169 9 Ouistreham 55 000 - 32 % 0,348 5 M€ 651 84 10 My hero academia - World heroes' mission 55 000 - 57 % 0,184 - M€ 416 132 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...