Official France Box Office Thread

[anti-Pedantic]

On 12/20/2021 at 9:28 PM, LPLC said:

 

 

At this point, 5M admits are lock and 7M admissions are unlikely,  let's try 6M admits in the end.

 

On 12/20/2021 at 9:49 PM, LPLC said:

Unlikely, AEG's first weekend was almost 800k more admissions than NWH, but be careful I'm not saying it's impossible with huge legs (3.5x legs) and with the good reviews and the right WOM it's still possible (I would say 25% chance it will happen), however I'm sure that despite the Christmas holidays, the film will be more frontloaded than you think. If it reaches 6 million admissions I will already be very happy, that's the goal we should try to aim for for 

 

On 12/27/2021 at 9:15 PM, LPLC said:

 

7 millions admissions are now 100% dead. The objective remains 6 millions admits.

 

On 1/3/2022 at 10:47 PM, LPLC said:

Not impossible but it's unlikely, the best scenario I can see is 6,9M just under AEG

 

On 1/10/2022 at 9:47 PM, LPLC said:

6,75M I think

 

On 1/24/2022 at 2:27 AM, LPLC said:

I think now NWH is close to 6.6M admissions (or maybe even surpassed that mark this Sunday), 6.75M admits seems locked, now let's see if it can surpass AEG (6.943M admissions) and especially 7M admits.

 

On 1/27/2022 at 4:14 PM, LPLC said:

Let's try 7M if it's possible, no big competition and holidays in less than 3 weeks makes me optimistic

 

Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. 

 

If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop.

[pepsa]

5 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. 

 

If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop.

 

It might be enoying for you to have someone low-bal a movies end total but different people have different tendencies. LPLC  lowballs movies a bit often, meaning his numbers are often the low end of what the movie might do. But in some cases movie do have worse legs than expected and at that point LPLC's numbers probably are very close to the real numbers. It's not because someone likes to causious with their predicting that it's bad / not credible. Some people like to be causious, some people like to be bold, some take a road in between. As long as you take in to account people's prediciton tendencies the information they give you is still valuable.

[Legion Again]

I agree that the info is still valuable if you know whether someone is a pessimistic and you should adjust their nums up or an optimist and you should adjust their nums down -- but newer people aren't going to know and ideally shouldn't have to try to keep track of those idiosyncratic prediction tendencies of long time members. Really it is best to always aim for pure accuracy rather than either conservative or aggressiveness.

[charlie Jatinder]

I mean ofcourse if you want to get accurate projection, just follow me.

🤷‍♂️

Edited February 3, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Issac Newton]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean ofcourse if you want to get accurate projection, just follow me.

🤷‍♂️

Done ✅

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean ofcourse if you want to get accurate projection, just follow me.

🤷‍♂️

I seem to recall some rather low numbers from you as well from the first few weeks 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I seem to recall some rather low numbers from you as well from the first few weeks 

I am sorry. you may be confusing me with some variant of mine.

[MG10]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am sorry. you may be confusing me with some variant of mine.

 

Charlie the Conqueror, or he who predicts

[anti-Pedantic]

3 hours ago, pepsa said:

 

It might be enoying for you to have someone low-bal a movies end total but different people have different tendencies. LPLC  lowballs movies a bit often, meaning his numbers are often the low end of what the movie might do. But in some cases movie do have worse legs than expected and at that point LPLC's numbers probably are very close to the real numbers. It's not because someone likes to causious with their predicting that it's bad / not credible. Some people like to be causious, some people like to be bold, some take a road in between. As long as you take in to account people's prediciton tendencies the information they give you is still valuable.

 

Not annoying, its just that he says things in absolute ways sometimes. I am just saying he should make some charts to show, not everyday but once every few weeks when he predicts. 

 

Also, Pessimism is good. Its just that He is there puttin effort in almost every thread of all countries.

[ZeeSoh]

9 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. 

 

If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop.

 

24 minutes ago, anti-Pedantic said:

 

Not annoying, its just that he says things in absolute ways sometimes. I am just saying he should make some charts to show, not everyday but once every few weeks when he predicts. 

 

Also, Pessimism is good. Its just that He is there puttin effort in almost every thread of all countries.

If you don't like someone's post you can put them on ignore. If their post is breaking a forum rule then report them. But don't tell someone what to do. They are perfectly welcome to analyse things however they want and be as pessimistic or optimistic about numbers. If you don't like someone's analysis then why not do it yourself and see how you fare?

[LPLC]

13 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its okay to be wrong but how is it okay to be wrong every week when if you look at chart and compare to any movie, you can see it it was getting higher. 

 

If you keep doing it, you won't have any credibility left. Atleast make a chart or something, to show how it can drop.

Thank you for finding my old sentences, it must have taken you a long time and it allows you to realize how incredible the NWH run was

 

Sorry you don't like my work, I'll try to do better in the next few weeks. Of course I can't always be precise because the figures change week after week and it's true that I said that after the opening weekend that 6m admissions was very possible and 7m was possible but unlikely.

 

However, I hadn't taken into account the fact that there was no competition at all and that the holidays are coming so quickly. Without these parameters, we might not have reached this milestone. You know it's hard to predict accurately and I try to do my best and if you think I have no credibility then as the others say make your predictions and your charts yourself.

[LPLC]

4 hours ago, anti-Pedantic said:

 

Not annoying, its just that he says things in absolute ways sometimes. I am just saying he should make some charts to show, not everyday but once every few weeks when he predicts. 

 

Also, Pessimism is good. Its just that He is there puttin effort in almost every thread of all countries.

Yes I try to be active in several threads of this forum and I don't think it's forbidden in a forum to share things or ask questions ? At worst just ignore me

[LPLC]

BOX-OFFICE prévisionnel (du 2 au 8 février 2022)
Rang	Titre	Entrées	Variation hebdo	Cumul (Millions)	Budget	Nbre de salles
1	Super-héros malgré lui	580 000	New	0,580	15,4 M€	688
2	Vaillante	250 000	New	0,250	- M€	640
3	Les jeunes amants	160 000	New	0,160	5,1 M€	296
4	Presque	115 000	- 25 %	0,266	3,8 M€	443
5	Adieu Monsieur Haffmann	105 000	- 25 %	0,675	11,8 M€	934
6	Spider-man : No way home	100 000	- 35 %	6,904	200 M$	584
7	Les promesses	90 000	- 30 %	0,220	4,6 M€	333
8	Nightmare alley	65 000	- 35 %	0,305	- M$	291
9	Ouistreham	65 000	- 20 %	0,358	5 M€	625
10	My hero academia - World heroes' mission	60 000	- 55 %	0,189	- M€	393

 

Just before the holidays start, the competition arrives and "Super-héros malgré lui" should easily start first and NWH should break out of the top 5 this week after a 7th week as #1 :

 

- We can hope for 1.5M admits in the end for "Super-héros malgré lui"

 

- NWH should reach the 6.9M admissions milestone this week, it will exceed AEG (6.945M admissions) next week and then the final milestone of 7M admits in 2 weeks

 

- My Hero Academia should end up around 250k admissions, obviously far from the 760k admits of Demon Slayer

 

(I hope you like this table @anti-Pedantic)

 

[Issac Newton]

12 minutes ago, LPLC said:

- My Hero Academia should end up around 250k admissions, obviously far from the 760k admits of Demon Slayer

My Hero Academia never made up to the expectations. I have seen how it was expected to pass $10M OW in US but it finals hardly passed $12.7M. BTW, what is the comparison to it's previous films?

[MG10]

41 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Thank you for finding my old sentences, it must have taken you a long time and it allows you to realize how incredible the NWH run was

 

Sorry you don't like my work, I'll try to do better in the next few weeks. Of course I can't always be precise because the figures change week after week and it's true that I said that after the opening weekend that 6m admissions was very possible and 7m was possible but unlikely.

 

However, I hadn't taken into account the fact that there was no competition at all and that the holidays are coming so quickly. Without these parameters, we might not have reached this milestone. You know it's hard to predict accurately and I try to do my best and if you think I have no credibility then as the others say make your predictions and your charts yourself.

 

Not to mention that without the postponing of Morbius, Cyrano and the French film whose I don't remember the name it probably wouldn't have passed Endgame and the 7M admission. And obviously a simple user like us don't expect sudden changes in the release dates when we make predictions

Edited February 3, 2022 by MG10

[LPLC]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

My Hero Academia never made up to the expectations. I have seen how it was expected to pass $10M OW in US but it finals hardly passed $12.7M. BTW, what is the comparison to it's previous films?

Don't find datas sorry 

[LPLC]

59 minutes ago, MG10 said:

 

Not to mention that without the postponing of Morbius, Cyrano and the French film whose I don't remember the name it probably wouldn't have passed Endgame and the 7M admission. And obviously a simple user like us don't expect sudden changes in the release dates when we make predictions

Yes "Qu'est ce qu'on a tous fait au bon Dieu" (the huge French movie that you mentioned) was supposed to be released yesterday normally and its postponement will benefit NWH which will face less competition than expected, just like the postponed release of Morbius and it is true that it is difficult to make predictions when things change during the run 

Edited February 3, 2022 by LPLC

[MG10]

2 hours ago, LPLC said:

Yes "Qu'est ce qu'on a tous fait au bon Dieu" (the huge French movie that you mentioned) was supposed to be released yesterday normally and its postponement will benefit NWH which will face less competition than expected, just like the postponed release of Morbius and it is true that it is difficult to make predictions when things change during the run 

 

Ah yeah thanks for the name, I see that the first two films of the "series" have grossed about $100M and $50M in France (with 12.3M and 6.7M admissions!) and were also released in Italy with decent results, really not bad

[LPLC]

-28%, holidays start now

[LPLC]

BOX-OFFICE France (du 2 au 8 février 2022) (Prévisions)
Rang	TITRE	Entrées	Variation hebdo	Cumul (Millions)	Budget	Nbre de copies	Moy / Copie
1	Super-héros malgré lui	560 000	New	0,560	15,4 M€	688	838
2	Vaillante	260 000	New	0,260	- M€	640	406
3	Les jeunes amants	150 000	New	0,150	5,1 M€	296	507
4	Presque	125 000	- 17 %	0,276	3,8 M€	485	258
5	Spider-man : No way home	110 000	- 27 %	6,914	200 M$	591	186
6	Adieu Monsieur Haffmann	90 000	- 35 %	0,660	11,8 M€	866	104
7	Les promesses	85 000	- 35 %	0,215	4,6 M€	380	224
8	Nightmare alley	75 000	- 23 %	0,315	- M$	443	169
9	Ouistreham	55 000	- 32 %	0,348	5 M€	651	84
10	My hero academia - World heroes' mission	55 000	- 57 %	0,184	- M€	416	132