Big Hero 6 | November 7, 2014 | Now available on home video

[TalismanRing]

That's 1.182, not 1.82. WiR was about 9.2x the post-NYD weekend.

 

Frozen earned ~104m after a 19.58 weekend (5.3x)

 

Tangled earned either 33 after a 9.8 weekend (3.4x) or 25 after a 5.1 (4.9x). However in that case NYE/NYD happened on Fr/Sa so it's difficult to pinpoint the "post-New Year's Weekend". Probably best to ignore either case, although the 4.9x might be a good point for NEXT weekend.

 

My guess is that it ends up somewhere in that range of 5-10x. At least 25m more, but probably not anything more than 45m. So it could pass DoFP, but it's definitely not guaranteed.

 

Mustn't do math before my 3rd cup of coffee.  Thanks.

 

Well, $25m would bring it past DOFP at  $236m+ so I'd say it has a good chance

[Omni]

WiR was about 9.2x the post-NYD weekend.

 

Frozen earned ~104m after a 19.58 weekend (5.3x)

 

Tangled earned either 33 after a 9.8 weekend (3.4x) or 25 after a 5.1 (4.9x). However in that case NYE/NYD happened on Fr/Sa so it's difficult to pinpoint the "post-New Year's Weekend". Probably best to ignore either case, although the 4.9x might be a good point for NEXT weekend.

 

My guess is that it ends up somewhere in that range of 5-10x. At least 25m more, but probably not anything more than 45m. So it could pass DoFP, but it's definitely not guaranteed.

 

WIR's multiplier was greatly boosted by the late push animated films always get. Multipliers often get close to 10x when the weekend gross gets close to 1M. A few examples: Monsters University had a 4,8x from its 5.1M weekend, but about an 8.5x from its 1.4M weekend despite a 51% fall the weekend after; Lego Movie got about a 4.5x from a 4.1M weekend, but more than a 6x from its 1.4M weekend despite a disastrous 64% freefall on the following weekend; Rio 2 got an 8x from a weekend just above 1M, Despicable Me 2 managed a 9x as soon as it approached 1M, and so on. So WiR's multiplier doesn't count.

 

Frozen got a 6.3x multiplier from its post-holidays weekend, but that weekend was already deflated (30%+ drop from the previous weekend), Frozen is Frozen and it also got a boost from the singalong release. A 6.3x does rationally look completely out of reach.

 

Tangled is more comparable. 4.4x from an inflated weekend, meaning 232/233M if applied to BH6. And Tangled had great late legs, less competition, a better PTA (leading to better screen holds) and a late push to make it reach 200M. Therefore, it's sensible to assume that a multiplier around 4.5x is the absolute best case scenario for BH6.

So, 230M is a struggle, DOFP is 95% safe, reaching Maleficent needs one hell of a miracle.

[Fullbuster]

http://entertainthis.usatoday.com/2015/01/09/watch-lea-michele-kill-let-it-go-on-the-final-season-of-glee/

 

[FrozenUnicorn]

http://entertainthis.usatoday.com/2015/01/09/watch-lea-michele-kill-let-it-go-on-the-final-season-of-glee/

Yay!

... But shouldn't this be on the Frozen thread instead?

[Dingdong123]

I feel like the february home video release may cut its legs tho.

[forg]

^ it will but it already did great in the box office. Hopefully it will get good HV sales as well

[FrozenUnicorn]

I feel like the february home video release may cut its legs tho.

Yeah, same thing happened with Frozen, so I wouldn't be surprised.

[wileECoyote]

Jan 9–11-$2,243,000
(Estimate)-52.8%1,580-333$1,420$214,459,000
(Estimate)10

 

So running almost 2x of WiR after the holidays.  If it can keep it up BH6 could end up around 235-236.

[Spidey Freak]

 

Jan 9–11-$2,243,000

(Estimate)-52.8%1,580-333$1,420$214,459,000

(Estimate)10

 

So running almost 2x of WiR after the holidays.  If it can keep it up BH6 could end up around 235-236.

 

 

Is that considering the BR/DVD release?

[kitik]

It's going to finish around 225-228.

[forg]

Congrats on the Oscar nomination!

[wileECoyote]

Good news!:

Congrats on the Oscar nomination!

Bad news

11 11 Big Hero 6 Buena Vista 739 -841 -53.2% 11

Ouch. Big TC hit

[Infernus]

Congrats on the oscar nomination. The exclusion of LEGO movie was a surpirise. In all honesty though, I am rooting for The tale of princess Kaguya to win this.

[Fullbuster]

Still 22 days before the French release, damn ^^"

[wileECoyote]

Still 22 days before the French release, damn ^^"

Damn that's late.

So BH6 is sitting at 216.6. WiR did about 8M more after MLK Jr. weekend but that came with an expansion for that weekend. BH6 didnt and likely won't get one until it goes into dollar theaters.

So going by that we are looking at 224-225. Maybe there could be a DF with Strange Magic if it's attached. And even if it did, I'm not very optimistic about a good bounce since Strange Magic looks like a dud.

[TalismanRing]

WIR It had an expansion on MLK weekend which gave it a boost but lost all those theaters the w/e after.

[chuck0]

Finally saw this... the staggered international realease really has been pretty annoying

As for the movie. Liked it quite a bit. Especially the Baymax-Hiro character dynamics was very well realized. One thing that really stood out a little negative for me was the overall soundtrack. The background music just did never really work all that well together with the visuals which was a little disappointing when you consider that this is a disney movie. In the end i think i like it a little less than Wreck it Ralph. Anyways another cool thing is that i saw the name of a former collegue pop up in the credits (he worked on Hyperion )

[NYer4Life]

This movie is still playing in 1st run movie theaters in my area (while Penguins was moved to the $1 theaters about 2 weeks ago).

That's what is cutting off its legs.

I'm definitely going to see the movie when it hits the $1 theaters, but I'm not going to pay upwards of $9-$11 for a movie that's almost 3 months old.

This movie would have definitely benefited from the $1 theater bump... I just hope it's not too late.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Tangled/WIR hit dollar theaters 15 weeks in. Given how Feb 13th lines up with Presidents Day weekend, that seems about right for BH6.

[BadAtGender]

I did another tabulation about what BH6 would have grossed had it opened over Thanksgiving. As before, this is full of a lot of assumptions:

 

1. The OW is the same as its actual OW ($75,643,891), but instead moved to Nov 28-Dec 4.

2. The W/Th Thanksgiving gross is the same ratio as its actual W/Thu:Thanksgiving weekend.

3. The weekly drops from that OW are the same as its actual posted weekly drops.

 

(There might be some rounding errors below in the totals.)

 

Okay, it hypothetically earned $21,505,747 over the W/Th for Thanksgiving, then had its $75,643,891 opening week. Running total: $97,149,638. (Frozen, as a comparison, earned $102,637,436 over that period, including the 5 limited days.)

 

Then, as is typical, it fell hard on the next week, to $35,174,409. Then it had a third week drop to $27,652,609. Running total: $160,076,656. (Frozen held better in the second week drop, so was at $172,392,010).

 

But then the holidays kicked it, and it saw $29,556,529 and $40,994,905. Running total: $230,628,089. (Frozen: $277,116,204)

 

Then the holidays ended, and it crashed back to earth. $20,743,422 and $10,122,790 and $6,316,629. As of last Thursday, it would have a running total of $267,810,922, or about $50m ahead of its current total.

 

Of course, had it actually opened over Thanksgiving, it woudn't have followed the holidays with two straight 50% weekly drops. The first big drop is expected, and possibly might have been higher, but it's likely it would have recovered some (it wouldn't have lost so many theaters) and wouldn't have lost nearly as much over the MLK week. If I stop the direct weekly drops at the post-holiday week and then plug it into my flat percentage spreadsheet, it looks like with weekly drops of 40% from there on out, it would have ended up in the low $280s. (These are assumptions built on assumptions, though.)

 

While we can't really ever know what would have happened had Disney claimed the Thanksgiving slot for Big Hero 6, it seems likely that if they had it would have earned up to $60m more domestically. It definitely wouldn't have been a quiet $200m grosser.