Cooper Legion Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $1,534,547 ($1,857,351) 227,256 (280,746) 1,511 54.73% 2 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $523,552 ($88,066,645) 77,547 (12,334,230) 1,025 18.67% 3 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $206,513 ($6,755,158) 30,939 (946,304) 793 7.36% 4 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $185,523 ($7,351,576) 26,106 (978,873) 607 6.61% 5 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $116,645 ($3,704,137) 16,460 (515,906) 362 4.16% 6 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $61,485 ($62,964) 7,916 (8,163) 33 2.19% Daily drops: F2 -18.6% J3 -44% FvF -29% KO -36% Looks like losing some non-CGV screens to Start-up increased the CGV ratio a bit. Guess same happens today with Ashfall, will consider that in projection. F2 has 8641 CVS PS, considering everything I will project 55k, but it could go lower. Ashfall has 62k CGV PS, so it may go for a ballpark 450k OD here. Start-up 91% Egg, fine but I think it will be hurt by Ashfall and hold worse than F2 through holidays. KOBIS PS: Ashfall Final 275k Cats D-05 47.8k Forbidden Dream keeps having sneaks, will resist it when we’re closer 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 10 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said: Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $1,534,547 ($1,857,351) 227,256 (280,746) 1,511 54.73% 2 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $523,552 ($88,066,645) 77,547 (12,334,230) 1,025 18.67% 3 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $206,513 ($6,755,158) 30,939 (946,304) 793 7.36% 4 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $185,523 ($7,351,576) 26,106 (978,873) 607 6.61% 5 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $116,645 ($3,704,137) 16,460 (515,906) 362 4.16% 6 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $61,485 ($62,964) 7,916 (8,163) 33 2.19% Daily drops: F2 -18.6% J3 -44% FvF -29% KO -36% Looks like losing some non-CGV screens to Start-up increased the CGV ratio a bit. Guess same happens today with Ashfall, will consider that in projection. F2 has 8641 CVS PS, considering everything I will project 55k, but it could go lower. Ashfall has 62k CGV PS, so it may go for a ballpark 450k OD here. Start-up 91% Egg, fine but I think it will be hurt by Ashfall and hold worse than F2 through holidays. KOBIS PS: Ashfall Final 275k Cats D-05 47.8k Forbidden Dream keeps having sneaks, will resist it when we’re closer The first time more than 50% drop for weekday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said: The first time more than 50% drop for weekday Thursday Nov 28 was -52.6% weekly. Wed Dec 4 -70% weekly. Both special circumstances, and so is this. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Not to be too self-congratulatory, but I feel like I’ve been nailing the 00:20 projections even on days where it’s a bit tricky 😎 Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $2,976,576 ($3,039,182) 440,729 (448,828) 1,966 63.38% 2 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $909,590 ($2,814,195) 132,424 (419,276) 1,133 19.36% 3 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $359,253 ($88,621,268) 53,321 (12,388,505) 790 7.64% 4 Sin-bi-a-pa-teu Geuk-jang-pan Ha-neul-do-ggae-bi Dae Yo-reu-mun-gan-deu South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $146,829 ($170,308) 22,817 (26,016) 559 3.12% 5 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $71,598 ($6,846,288) 11,364 (958,356) 477 1.52% 6 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $77,259 ($7,448,266) 11,163 (990,538) 329 1.64% 7 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $47,197 ($3,761,999) 6,630 (522,914) 158 1% 8 SORRY WE MISSED YOU France Dec 19, 2019 $15,151 ($35,747) 2,470 (5,486) 66 0.32% 9 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $10,337 ($3,056,545) 1,865 (464,534) 59 0.22% Final number low 54ks Now I know there is a certain crowd who will feel tempted to just look at a single number (the weekly %) and mash that button, but this is a strong day for Frozen that gives me great confidence in passing 14M, and in my next post I’ll go into more detail about how to look at today and where things are likely headed from here. 10 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Guys I feel worried.. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 (edited) 36 minutes ago, pepsa said: Guys I feel worried.. Nevermind guys. Pepsa has a a verylevel head, so if they are worried, we’re missing Avatar. Prepare to fall off a cliff Spoiler Okay, the real post is here 😛 There was over 600k of new business today from this week’s openers, and F2 weathered that pretty well. For instance here are today’s daily drops: F2 -31.5% Start-up -42% (from Wed OD, so a bit skewed) J3 -63.6% ! FvF -57% ! KO -59.5% ! A Little Princess -64% ! Things got gutted, but F2 has the right combination of PSA and WOM to take the smallest hit. Further skewing the weekly num is the fact that last Thursday was inexplicably really good. Let’s check out some holds vs 2 weeks ago: F2 Mon -59.4% (-36.3% avg weekly) F2 Tues -50.8% (-29.85% avg weekly) F2 Wed -55.7% (-33.45% avg weekly, despite Start-Up OD) F2 Thurs -66.6% (-42.2% avg weekly, despite Ashfall’s 450k OD!) FvF Thurs -77% (-52% avg weekly despite 98% egg, because of Ashfall) KO Thurs -76.5% (-51.5% avg weekly despite 97% egg, because of Ashfall) So, the day is good. Now let’s turn to the future. Ashfall has an 87% egg, not a disaster but also certainly not a holiday breakout in the making. SK may love Cats, never can tell for sure how things translate across cultures, but it is reputedly horrible. So there is a good chance imo that F2 will be the movie of the winter overall and hold really nicely over the next 2,3 weeks. CGV PS for Friday are 12k and my modeling+ a dash of conservatism is giving 82k, same Fri bump as last week. Start-up has just 15k PS, so F2 may close that gap even faster than I expected. Rough, rough guess atm is around 200k Sat, 170k Sun for 450k wknd and a 12.85M cume from a 760k week. That will take about 40% weekly drops to hit 14M, but with the worst of competition in the rear view mirror and next week start of break, I think more than that is achievable. Oh, KOBIS PS: Cats D-04 68.6k Edited December 19, 2019 by Arendelle Legion 6 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somoset Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Sounds like ASHFALL reviews/score isn't very good. 87% egg which is just above BATTLESHIP ISLAND.... Will START-UP have longer legs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Somoset said: Sounds like ASHFALL reviews/score isn't very good. 87% egg which is just above BATTLESHIP ISLAND.... Will START-UP have longer legs? Start-up Friday doesn’t look very good to me, or PS for Sat and beyond. Its reviews aren’t great either, just okay. If Cats scores 80s or below as seems likely, Frozen will reap the holiday bounty in my estimation. F2 was 8.4% of F2+Start-up+Ashfall gross today (Start-up D2/Ashfall D1/ F2 D 29). My hunch is that that will rise to 33% shockingly fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 (edited) SK is not getting TROS this week because Disney wants to let F2 get all the money a little longer? Edited December 19, 2019 by MrGlass2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said: SK is not getting TROS this week because Disney wants to let F2 get all the money a little longer? TROS will make less total than Frozen’s 5th week. Disney maybe delayed it so that local competition didn’t squish it like a bug, but on the other hand that didn’t stop them in the equally hopeless China market, so 🤷♂️ Edited December 19, 2019 by Arendelle Legion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somoset Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said: TROS will make less total than Frozen’s 5th week. Disney maybe delayed it so that local competition didn’t squish it like a bug, but on the other hand that didn’t stop them in the equally hopeless China market, so 🤷♂️ TROS doesn't really have strong competition in China, South Korea did. Also the local titles in December have always steamrolled every Star Wars film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 @Arendelle Legion Any update for F2 at midday Firday? Can it survive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 1 minute ago, PKMLover said: @Arendelle Legion Any update for F2 at midday Firday? Can it survive? Friday looks really weak, maybe 73k? I’m waiting for Sat before readjusting stuff much, but might need to lean more on holidays than I was hoping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said: Friday looks really weak, maybe 73k? I’m waiting for Sat before readjusting stuff much, but might need to lean more on holidays than I was hoping. When will the holiday start in SK? from next monday? the whole next 2 weeks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 9 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said: Friday looks really weak, maybe 73k? I’m waiting for Sat before readjusting stuff much, but might need to lean more on holidays than I was hoping. I wouldn't worry too much about Friday. Presales are over 86K which is fantastic news for Saturday and Sunday. It's going to be near 12.8M after Sunday. I'm almost tempted to say lock for 14M admissions but I won't, with NY's holidays coming 75%+ chance, its first Hollywood release to hit that milestone. Out of this world performance!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 52 minutes ago, druv10 said: I wouldn't worry too much about Friday. Presales are over 86K which is fantastic news for Saturday and Sunday. It's going to be near 12.8M after Sunday. I'm almost tempted to say lock for 14M admissions but I won't, with NY's holidays coming 75%+ chance, its first Hollywood release to hit that milestone. Out of this world performance!!! Friday is quite awful at around 69k, +28% bump from the deflated Thurs. Sat looks even worse with 31k CGV PS leading to perhaps 145k admits, though I hope walkups beat that forecast by a lot. Seems like whole weekend is going to suffer from the competition and be down low 60% The silver lining is that with not that much of the presales going to Sat+Sun after all, they must be for the holiday weekdays instead — gotta go somewhere. Cats is coming out Tuesday and has 100k PS sales, but as long as it bombs in reception I still expect frozen to have a great next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said: Friday is quite awful at around 69k, +28% bump from the deflated Thurs. Sat looks even worse with 31k CGV PS leading to perhaps 145k admits, though I hope walkups beat that forecast by a lot. Seems like whole weekend is going to suffer from the competition and be down low 60% The silver lining is that with not that much of the presales going to Sat+Sun after all, they must be for the holiday weekdays instead — gotta go somewhere. Cats is coming out Tuesday and has 100k PS sales, but as long as it bombs in reception I still expect frozen to have a great next week. When will the holiday start there? From next monday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said: When will the holiday start there? From next monday? Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misafeco Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 I work for a Korean company since March, I have very good work relationship with a couple of them. Our advisor is a great guy, sadly he goes back home after he spent 1 year here. A very interesting culture too, I don't like their food though. At least what we can get in the canteen for lunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Dec 20, 2019 Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $3,149,609 ($6,269,739) 424,845 (883,159) 1,934 57.67% 2 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $1,232,561 ($4,086,360) 164,604 (587,725) 1,102 22.57% 3 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $510,133 ($89,516,768) 68,617 (12,457,645) 775 9.34% 4 Sin-bi-a-pa-teu Geuk-jang-pan Ha-neul-do-ggae-bi Dae Yo-reu-mun-gan-deu South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $130,351 ($301,334) 18,713 (44,718) 562 2.38% 5 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $132,646 ($7,615,514) 16,824 (1,007,732) 321 2.42% 6 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $104,917 ($6,981,762) 14,869 (973,368) 495 1.92% 7 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $74,441 ($3,854,053) 9,619 (532,734) 165 1.36% 8 SORRY WE MISSED YOU France Dec 19, 2019 $13,199 ($50,588) 1,970 (7,703) 66 0.24% 9 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $8,318 ($3,078,657) 1,425 (466,063) 46 0.15% 10 Asterix: The Secret of the Magic Potion France Dec 12, 2019 $5,448 ($58,544) 1,201 (10,696) 25 0.09% 11 Countdown U.S. Dec 12, 2019 $8,044 ($501,524) 1,094 (70,150) 68 0.14% 12 COLD WAR Poland Feb 07, 2019 $6,252 ($198,679) 766 (27,829) 2 0.11% 13 The Queen's Corgi Belgium Dec 24, 2019 $5,867 ($16,451) 756 (2,940) 4 0.1% 14 The Truth France Dec 05, 2019 $4,510 ($194,482) 736 (30,492) 40 0.08% 15 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $5,274 ($1,744,092) 709 (245,333) 35 0.09% 16 Forbidden Dream South Korea Dec 26, 2019 $4,486 ($68,239) 651 (13,577) 3 0.08% 17 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $3,413 ($17,964,177) 543 (2,477,696) 11 0.06% 18 Moonlit Winter South Korea Nov 14, 2019 $3,444 ($770,255) 493 (112,416) 27 0.06% 19 Jeronimo South Korea,U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $3,176 ($83,411) 478 (12,706) 4 0.05% 19 The Two Popes U.S.,Argentina,U.K.,... Dec 11, 2019 $3,357 ($57,934) 478 (8,896) 16 0.06% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...