The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[baumer]

I dont need others to tell me what to say or not say, IJack is excessive, even though he means well.I can just feel however how some of you are delighted at this wednesday drop and will take any negative thing to use as ammo.

No shit. Some of us hate the movie and want it to fail. Would you rather all of us haters build a camp fire, sing some songs and perhaps break bread with each other and pray to our God so that ASM can recover nicely on Thursday?

[CJohn]

What's going to happen is at the end of Sunday, Sony's going to sit down and stare at the $130m-ish on the table and go, "Okay... how do we want to split this up for six days?"

[Shawn Robbins]

Can't disagree there, Shawn. Should be a fun Movie Moan discussion!

Indeed.

[filmnerdjamie]

What's going to happen is at the end of Sunday, Sony's going to sit down and stare at the $130m-ish on the table and go, "Okay... how do we want to split this up for six days?"

Obviously they're gonna get John Nash in to help rationalize the number fudging!

[redfirebird2008]

This is about where I have it as well. I just had dreams of 300 yesterday that were quickly squashed. Sony was just teasing me...basterds...

Yep, my $320m prediction went from extremely healthy to life support in a very short time period.

[baumer]

What's going to happen is at the end of Sunday, Sony's going to sit down and stare at the $130m-ish on the table and go, "Okay... how do we want to split this up for six days?"

:rofl:

[filmnerdjamie]

Indeed.

Phil won't see it till Saturday and Kris is seeing it today/tomorrow-ish.

[Shawn Robbins]

This is about where I have it as well. I just had dreams of 300 yesterday that were quickly squashed. Sony was just teasing me...basterds...

I'm really anxious to see the 6-day multiplier on this puppy. Transformers barely eclipsed 2.05x from its 6-day and -- while it faced Potter -- I think most of us would agree that TDKR is a significantly bigger threat to TASM than Potter was to TF1. Plus, Ice Age is going to add a third kiddie film in the market for which families and young ones to choose over Spidey.Finally... something interesting to track since early May. Edited July 5, 2012 by ShawnMR

[rahvinn87]

No shit. Some of us hate the movie and want it to fail. Would you rather all of us haters build a camp fire, sing some songs and perhaps break bread with each other and pray to our God so that ASM can recover nicely on Thursday?

Speaking for iJack:Would that really be too much to ask?

[baumer]

This is about where I have it as well. I just had dreams of 300 yesterday that were quickly squashed. Sony was just teasing me...basterds...

[MovieMan89]

I'm really anxious to see the 6-day multiplier on this puppy. Transformers barely eclipsed 2.05x from its 6-day and -- while it faced Potter -- I think most of us would agree that TDKR is significantly bigger threat to TASM than Potter was to TF. Plus, Ice Age is going to add a third kiddie film in the market for which families and young ones to choose over Spidey.Finally... something interesting to track since early May.

1.9x 6 day multi is the absolute highest it will go, imo, and that would be if WOM were great for it. Personally I'm sticking to my 1.8x 6 day multi and I even think as low as 1.7x is a possibility if WOM is below average. Edited July 5, 2012 by MovieMan89

[Shawn Robbins]

1.9x 6 day multi is the absolute highest it will go, imo, and that would be if WOM were great for it. Personally I'm sticking to my 1.8x 6 day multi and I even think as low as 1.7x is a possibility if WOM is below average.

Very reasonable. Just to err on the side of caution, I'd revise my initial projection down to $250m as the general low-end. $225m is the worst case scenario, but that truly requires the film to bleed off kids to the competition or older adults to their other selections.Truthfully, I can imagine both happening. But I won't put any stock in anything until we get real actuals. There's too much Hollywood accounting going on right now for anyone to make a reliable projection.

[filmnerdjamie]

Very reasonable. Just to err on the side of caution, I'd revise my initial projection down to $250m as the general low-end. $225m is the worst case scenario, but that truly requires the film to bleed off kids to the competition or older adults to their other selections.

Truthfully, I can imagine both happening. But I won't put any stock in anything until we get real actuals. There's too much Hollywood accounting going on right now for anyone to make a reliable projection.

Which it could judging by Ice Age 4 hitting the following weekend!

All this fudging reminds me of when WB added the midnights to the opening day gross for Superman Returns. At the time everyone balked at such a practice. Now its common. But for its time, that was deemed a major case of fucking with the facts.

Edited July 5, 2012 by filmnerdjamie

[rahvinn87]

Just out of interest, what would be considered a 'good' 6-day gross? Enough that it could be called a success.

[theultimatebiu]

Honestly, how can anyone predict anything at this point? We don't even know if we can believe the numbers that Sony reported for the past 2 days. It's really hard to extrapolate from the data Sony reported because Sony hasn't been trustworthy.

Edited July 5, 2012 by theultimatebiu

[cookie]

TASM is landing perfectly on my 250m prediction.

[baumer]

Which it could judging by Ice Age 4 hitting the following weekend!

All this fudging reminds me of when WB added the midnights to the opening day gross for Superman Returns. At the time everyone balked at such a practice. Now its common. But for its time, that was deemed a major case of fucking with the facts.

Oh wow. I forgot about that movie. Wow, that could hit Spidey next weekend.

[MovieMan89]

Very reasonable. Just to err on the side of caution, I'd revise my initial projection down to $250m as the general low-end. $225m is the worst case scenario, but that truly requires the film to bleed off kids to the competition or older adults to their other selections.Truthfully, I can imagine both happening. But I won't put any stock in anything until we get real actuals. There's too much Hollywood accounting going on right now for anyone to make a reliable projection.

What if it only does $120-125m or so for the 6 day? We can't rule that out yet after the 4th drop. Then a 1.8x multi would only put it finishing between $216-225m.

[Magic]

TASM is landing perfectly on my 250m prediction.

My prediction is the same.

[druv10]

Yes, let's change the goalline once again!

You and your goaline. :lol: