The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[riczhang]

However, I can't rule out 38 million + midnights which will keep 100 million OD in play.

How the fucking hell is it going to get to 38M+ Midnights? Even Twilight's never had such a big crowd, there's only one and that's Potter with its rabid fanbase. Batman's fanbase is definitely skewed older, which means they aren't in that much of a rush to see the movie, hence why TDK had such soft drops over OW. It's not getting anywhere near 38M+ Midnights, I'd say 25M at best, possibly 30M.

[filmscholar]

I agree that as Epic as it's going to be, 3 Hours is a little long for a Comic Book Movie. Nolan is really going out with a bang with TDKR.

[FishMB]

Come on guys use them brains before making posts

[riczhang]

What difference does that make? Trailers for Avengers would be the same length as trailers for TDKR. Avengers is 143 minutes and TDKR is 164 minutes. The fact that people keep saying TDKR is 30 minutes longer is bullshit. I've seen it posted on these boards numerous times. People forget Avengers was pretty damn long in its own right.

It's actually 165 minutes......

[ZattMurdock]

What difference does that make? Trailers for Avengers would be the same length as trailers for TDKR. Avengers is 143 minutes and TDKR is 164 minutes. The fact that people keep saying TDKR is 30 minutes longer is bullshit. I've seen it posted on these boards numerous times. People forget Avengers was pretty damn long in its own right.

Okay, it was just a question.

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah, but let's not kid one another: The pacing for TA in it's running time will be considerably different with TDKR and it's pacing for a movie with the running time it has.. I'll bet TDKR is more dialogue driven than action oriented which might seem as a bore compared to TA.. Will see in 3 weeks

There is over an hour of action in the film. TA wasn't exactly nonstop action. There is a big chunk of that film primarily focused on the arguments between the main characters.

[TLK]

How the fucking hell is it going to get to 38M+ Midnights? Even Twilight's never had such a big crowd, there's only one and that's Potter with its rabid fanbase. Batman's fanbase is definitely skewed older, which means they aren't in that much of a rush to see the movie, hence why TDK had such soft drops over OW. It's not getting anywhere near 38M+ Midnights, I'd say 25M at best, possibly 30M.

It isn't very likely but it isn't impossible. Enough hype and you can get to 35-40 million. TDK did 18.7 and I am expecting 30 million based just on natural progression of its fanbase and popularity of midnights these days.

[Deep Wang]

MOVIE	MIDNIGHTS	Tuesday	Total
Â	Â	Â	Â
SPIDER-MAN	Â	Â	Â
2D	310	666	976
3D	213	569	782
Total	523	1235	1758
+/-	Â	Â	Â
Ratio	0.41	0.46	0.44

I totally forgot to get the TF3 numbers!The ratio is pretty good, but that is not because of demand or anything. There are twice as many 3D shows as there are 2D. There was only 1/8 3D shows that was over 50% capacity. So make of that what you will.

[redfirebird2008]

It's actually 165 minutes......

164 minutes and 27 seconds.http://www.bbfc.co.uk/BFF281347/

[filmscholar]

Just based on IMAX Pre-sales TDKR is going to kill it on Midnights. I know HP8 had 3D but still don't doubt TDKR midnight, it's going to be huge.

[FishMB]

By that I mean don't make me unleash the power of the Labratasorus Rex from ASM on you guys lolololololol

[filmscholar]

It's the Holiday guys, I'm not shocked we don't have the numbers.

[jse]

life support does not equal dead. 5.5 midnights is 73% accurate. I was also correct about falling RT score.

Sure, 27M puts on life support. Average of the 30-37M range buries it.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Nice 3D share for rallax's theater. I hope it gets at least 50% though for the weekend even if that seems unlikely.

[riczhang]

164 minutes and 27 seconds.http://www.bbfc.co.uk/BFF281347/

Says 2hrs 45min here: [Love how we're debating over 33 seconds. ]http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=batman3.htm

[Fake]

It's something that's been refuted more times than I care to count. It's simply not impossible for a $100m OD if the demand is there, end of story.

Maybe theoretically, but not practically.

[JackO]

Sure, 27M puts on life support. Average of the 30-37M range buries it.

Ranges don't bury anything.

[riczhang]

Just based on IMAX Pre-sales TDKR is going to kill it on Midnights. I know HP8 had 3D but still don't doubt TDKR midnight, it's going to be huge.

IMAX can only do so much, IMAX isn't at the capacity yet where it will significantly influence midnights.

[jse]

MOVIE MIDNIGHTS Tuesday Total SPIDER-MAN 2D 310 666 976 3D 213 569 782 Total 523 1235 1758 +/- Ratio 0.41 0.46 0.44 I totally forgot to get the TF3 numbers!The ratio is pretty good, but that is not because of demand or anything. There are twice as many 3D shows as there are 2D. There was only 1/8 3D shows that was over 50% capacity. So make of that what you will.

3D share is where i thought they would be. But IIRC your theater's 3D shares are typically higher than the domestic average aren't they? I remember they were for TA.

[riczhang]

Ranges don't bury anything.

Even at the low end with 30M you're prediction is DOA.