The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[Fake]

Just based on IMAX Pre-sales TDKR is going to kill it on Midnights. I know HP8 had 3D but still don't doubt TDKR midnight, it's going to be huge.

IMAX Pre-sales? They were always expected to be sold out.

[Walt Disney]

Just based on IMAX Pre-sales TDKR is going to kill it on Midnights. I know HP8 had 3D but still don't doubt TDKR midnight, it's going to be huge.

I don't know. Young Adult titles seem to be the ones with big midnights. TDKR should skew more to the CBM audience like TA. Unless DC fans are more young adult oriented. I'm going to assume that they're more like Marvel fans than Young Adult (Twilight, Potter) fans. So the midnights probably won't be much more than what TA and TDK did.

[JackO]

Even at the low end with 30M you're prediction is DOA.

Did you ever think that it can go outside of the range because it is a range of numbers and not an actual number?

[redfirebird2008]

Says 2hrs 45min here: [Love how we're debating over 33 seconds. ]http://boxofficemojo...?id=batman3.htm

The BBFC has seen the film and rated it. The runtime they put on there is the actual runtime, not just estimated (unlike BOM).

[filmscholar]

I don't know. Young Adult titles seem to be the ones with big midnights. TDKR should skew more to the CBM audience like TA. Unless DC fans are more young adult oriented. I'm going to assume that they're more like Marvel fans than Young Adult (Twilight, Potter) fans. So the midnights probably won't be much more than what TA and TDK did.

Two Words: FINALE FACTOR. I'm not saying it's going to do more than Potter but it will be big. I most definitely think it will outdo TDK & TA Midnight. Edited July 4, 2012 by filmscholar

[riczhang]

Did you ever think that it can go outside of the range because it is a range of numbers and not an actual number?

Not on the low end, and not on the high end either with such a big range.

[druv10]

Runtime for TDKR shouldn't have too much effect, with digital screens more showings can be added very quickly to meet demand.

[jse]

It isn't very likely but it isn't impossible. Enough hype and you can get to 35-40 million. TDK did 18.7 and I am expecting 30 million based just on natural progression of its fanbase and popularity of midnights these days.

I don't know... from where i'm standing 27.5M mids give it the OD record, 30.5M the OW record, 36.5M gives it 100M OD. But as you can PLAINLY see, these days i tend to over-predict comicbook movies . So take that with a ton of salt. In the end, it's probably the non-kid friendly factor that kills its chances at the records.

[riczhang]

Two Words: FINALE FACTOR. I'm not saying it's going to do more than Potter but it will be big. I most definitely think it will outdo TDK & TA Midnight.

For a film like TDKR when the fanbase is I'd say probably on average at least 5 years older than HP's, finale factor will help on OW, and probably for the entire week afterwards, but not really on midnights because even with the finale factor, yes it'll probably get more people into seats during midnights but not a whole lot as the audience is older, and there isn't that much of a rush. But, the finale factor will help OW huge, no doubt about it.

[Walt Disney]

The BBFC has seen the film and rated it. The runtime they put on there is the actual runtime, not just estimated (unlike BOM).

I am positive that rounding it up 33 seconds or down 27 seconds will not make a difference. If you sit through the credits, there goes your 33 seconds. If you skip a preview, there goes your 27 seconds. Whether rounding up or down won't make a difference for what we are discussing.

[Deep Wang]

3D share is where i thought they would be. But IIRC your theater's 3D shares are typically higher than the domestic average aren't they? I remember they were for TA.

They were really good for the first two weekends because there was so much demand. People wanted to see it, so they saw it anyway they could. Since this will burn off so much demand by opening on a Tuesday, I don't think the ratio will be anything more than about 40-45% all weekend at most.

[Rthmessiah]

Rth, where are ya......?

At 107 pages hiding on Asgard

[kitik]

Two Words: FINALE FACTOR. I'm not saying it's going to do more than Potter but it will be big. I most definitely think it will outdo TDK & TA Midnight.

One could also argue that this is the 8th live action Batman movie, and everyone knows the 9th will happen sooner rather than later. Yeah, it's the final film from these people, but unlike Potter, everyone knows we'll see more of the Batman character.But yeah, it'll beat Avengers midnights. For such a big movie, relatively speaking, Avengers midnights were pitiful.

[jse]

I think TDKR's problem is going ot be its length. It is about half an hour longer than TA which translates to one less show per screen.

yeah i didnt even take that into account.

[Olive]

At 107 pages hiding on Asgard

Any good news?

[JackO]

Not on the low end, and not on the high end either with such a big range.

You can keep this going on and on and on but nothing is changing over here.

[Deep Wang]

But yeah, it'll beat Avengers midnights. For such a big movie, relatively speaking, Avengers midnights were pitiful.

Uh, no they weren't.

[ZattMurdock]

At 107 pages hiding on Asgard

Do you have any estimates for where is The Amazing Spider-Man is heading, mate?

[riczhang]

One could also argue that this is the 8th live action Batman movie, and everyone knows the 9th will happen sooner rather than later. Yeah, it's the final film from these people, but unlike Potter, everyone knows we'll see more of the Batman character.But yeah, it'll beat Avengers midnights. For such a big movie, relatively speaking, Avengers midnights were pitiful.

But, it's the last of the Nolan Batmans, and frankly speaking there won't be a batman as good as TDKR for quite some time, and that finale factor will get people in seats, especially with the rumours that Bruce Wayne will die floating around. I see it for OW, just not for Midnights, the audience is too old.

[riczhang]

You can keep this going on and on and on but nothing is changing over here.

Oh I will, because I know I'm right.