Weekend (8/10-12/12) Estimates: Bourne Legacy 40.3M; Campaign 27.4M; Hope Springs 15.6M

[Hatebox]

Jim Carrey is another star who was famously averse to sequels. He only did Ace Ventura 2 because his contract demanded it. And now, I guess, Dumb and Dumber 2 because he's not huge anymore. Batman Forever was a sequel too, of course, but he was only in the franchise once.

Edited August 12, 2012 by Hatebox

[Fake]

Wow, didn't even realize there was a $21m gap between #14 and #15 on the all-time domestic chart. Once TDKR passes TF2, it'll be between 15 and 16. Kind of a bizarre little piece of trivia.

Funny little thing, isn't it, that the gap just happens to be so close to the 400M mark?

[MovieMan89]

Book of Eli is the only movie he ever did where I thought the movie itself looked like it had a lot of box office potential. Usually the films he's in would be lucky to gross a quarter of what they do without him.

[redfirebird2008]

Funny little thing, isn't it, that the gap just happens to be so close to the 400M mark?

[lab276]

[Totem]

I love how Denzel doesn't seem to stick to one studio, I'm just curious about how he gets his work, I wonder if he finds scripts and asks studios if they want to be involved or if the studios send him scripts in the hope that he picks one of their films that is probably tailored to his specific needs.

[ecstasy]

I love how Denzel doesn't seem to stick to one studio, I'm just curious about how he gets his work, I wonder if he finds scripts and asks studios if they want to be involved or if the studios send him scripts in the hope that he picks one of their films that is probably tailored to his specific needs.

I don't know but Flight looks like it will be interesting.

[JackO]

I selfishly hope Bourne drops under 40M with the actuals. My portfolio wants tha money!

[Michael Gary Scott]

flight looks awesome. i had never heard of it before then i saw the trailer at a movie and i was like definitely must see

[Punishment]

Rank*	Title	Friday 8/10 (Estimates)	Saturday 8/11 (Estimates)	Sunday 8/12 (Estimates)	Monday 8/13
1	THE BOURNE LEGACY Universal 3,745	$14,000,000 -- / $3,738 $14,000,000 / 1	$14,800,000 +5.7% / $3,952 $28,800,000 / 2	$11,465,000 -22.5% / $3,061 $40,265,000 / 3	N/A
2	THE CAMPAIGN Warner Bros. 3,205	$10,240,000 -- / $3,195 $10,240,000 / 1	$9,555,000 -6.7% / $2,981 $19,795,000 / 2	$7,645,000 -20% / $2,385 $27,440,000 / 3	N/A
3	THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Warner Bros. 3,690	$5,640,000 +57.3% / $1,528 $376,249,000 / 22	$7,895,000 +40% / $2,140 $384,144,000 / 23	$6,005,000 -23.9% / $1,627 $390,149,000 / 24	N/A
4	HOPE SPRINGS Sony / Columbia 2,361	$4,625,000 +111.4% / $1,959 $9,078,000 / 3	$6,130,000 +32.5% / $2,596 $15,208,000 / 4	$4,845,000 -21% / $2,052 $20,053,000 / 5	N/A
5	TOTAL RECALL (2012) Sony / Columbia 3,601	$2,460,000 +19.3% / $683 $38,548,000 / 8	$3,225,000 +31.1% / $896 $41,773,000 / 9	$2,415,000 -25.1% / $671 $44,188,000 / 10	N/A
6	DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: DOG DAYS Fox 3,398	$2,850,000 +63.6% / $839 $25,204,000 / 8	$3,100,000 +8.8% / $912 $28,304,000 / 9	$2,250,000 -27.4% / $662 $30,554,000 / 10	N/A
7	ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT Fox 3,102	$2,025,000 +57.7% / $653 $139,339,000 / 29	$2,625,000 +29.6% / $846 $141,964,000 / 30	$2,100,000 -20% / $677 $144,064,000 / 31	N/A
8	TED Universal 2,208	$983,000 +46.3% / $445 $207,608,000 / 43	$1,337,000 +36% / $606 $208,945,000 / 44	$970,000 -27.4% / $439 $209,915,000 / 45	N/A
9	STEP UP REVOLUTION Summit Entertainment 1,898	$930,000 +21.2% / $490 $28,245,000 / 15	$1,075,000 +15.6% / $566 $29,320,000 / 16	$845,000 -21.4% / $445 $30,165,000 / 17	N/A
10	THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN Sony / Columbia 1,585	$620,000 +7.8% / $391 $253,963,000 / 39	$880,000 +41.9% / $555 $254,843,000 / 40	$700,000 -20.5% / $442 $255,543,000 / 41	N/A
11	THE WATCH Fox 2,461	$660,000 -12.1% / $268 $29,835,000 / 15	$850,000 +28.8% / $345 $30,685,000 / 16	$690,000 -18.8% / $280 $31,374,000 / 17	N/A
12	BRAVE Buena Vista 1,259	$524,000 +5.2% / $416 $225,967,000 / 50	$713,000 +36.1% / $566 $226,680,000 / 51	$640,000 -10.2% / $508 $227,320,000 / 52	N/A
13	NITRO CIRCUS THE MOVIE 3D Arc Entertainment 800	$400,000 +26.3% / $500 $1,382,000 / 3	$427,000 +6.8% / $534 $1,809,000 / 4	$341,000 -20.1% / $426 $2,151,000 / 5	N/A

 

[Gideon]

Total drop for Total Recall.

[acab]

Solid opening for The Bourne Legacy. I thought it would do less. Still the budget is too high and i can't see it having any special legs, especially with The Expendables 2 opening next week. The francise is in trouble.Good opening for The Campaign. It had two big stars but with an R rating and a political theme. It could gain some solid legs for the rest of the summer.Solid drop for The Dark Knight Rises.Excellent start for Hope Springs. I didn't think it would make 20m for the 5 days opening. It's going to have a leggy run.Total Recall collapsed. A failure for Sony. They overestimated the Beckinsale/Wiseman combo power, the Farrell headlining factor and the Arnold-less remake issue.

[wileECoyote]

Damn. Wanted TR to end comfortably higher than Battleship at least. At this rate, I think it'll just match it at best.

[Shawn Robbins]

http://www.boxoffice...rk-knight-rises

Sunday Update (#2): Warner Bros. estimates that The Dark Knight Rises will gross $34.2 million internationally this weekend, bringing its overseas total to $445.3 million. Rises is now pacing 28% ahead of The Dark Knight using 2008 exchange rates at the same point in time and 46% ahead at current exchange rates.

Key markets:

UK (4th w/e): £2.1m (US$3.3m) / £46.2m (US$72.2m)

France (3rd w/e): €2.3m (US$3m) / €20.3m (US$24.8m)

Brazil (3rd w/e): R$6m (US$3m) / R$40.0m (US$19.6m)

Germany (3rd w/e): €2.25m (US$2.8m) / €21.6m (US$26.3m)

Mexico (3rd w/e): Ps 35m (US$2.6m) / Ps 349m (US$26m)

Australia (4th w/e): A$2.5m (US$2.7m) / A$36.6m (US$37.7m)

Japan (3rd w/e): ¥139m (US$1.8m) / ¥1.3b (US$17.2m)

Sunday Update (8/12/12): Warner Bros. reports that The Dark Knight Rises will gross $19.5 million domestically this weekend, bringing its total to $390.15 million. Christopher Nolan's Batman finale surpassed three other franchise finales over the weekend (The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith and Deathly Hallows Part 2) to become the fifteenth highest grossing film of all-time.

[Gopher]

Just now noticed how Sith, ROTK and DH2 (all finales) ended up so close to each other with varying degrees of inflation.

[Webslinger]

The Bourne Legacy is off to a pretty good start. It was never going to reach the levels of Supremacy and Ultimatum without Matt Damon, but the fact that it opened about $3 million above The Bourne Identity's adjusted opening is a testament to the effectiveness of the marketing and the residual goodwill audiences have toward the franchise. The opening is especially solid when one considers that other sequels where the main draw was replaced, like XXX: State of the Union and The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, had disastrous performances at the box office. It's hard to say where the Bourne brand will go from here since audiences don't seem to be as satisfied with this installment, but it will make money for Universal.The Campaign is also off to a solid start. While Will Ferrell is a draw on his own, I think it helped that the advertising actually looked funny, which was not true of The Watch when it landed with a thud two weeks ago. With only one other comedy going into wide release between now and the end of September, it should see a fairly leggy run.The Dark Knight Rises held its ground against the openers, which is about the best one could ask for at this point. It's poised to surpass $400 million by Friday at the latest, and will surpass The Hunger Games as the year's second highest-grossing film next weekend. It's not the unbelievably boffo run we expected, but its total will still be huge enough that it's tough to complain.Hope Springs opened very well, especially given the relatively low theater count. While it's not on the same level as Meryl Streep's other hits in recent years (all of which had some factor that allowed them to have some level of appeal to audiences outside of Streep's target senior citizen demographic), it's hard to think of many other stars who can open a dramedy for adults to $20 million in five days. Between strong reviews and word-of-mouth, it will hang in there for a while.Diary of a Wimpy Kid continues to trail its predecessors, but it held better than those films did in their second weekends. I don't know if there are any more installments planned, but this one will be a solid enough moneymaker that Fox could probably do a fourth one if they desire.Total Recall had a disastrous second weekend. It was a given that the drop wouldn't be pretty with The Bourne Legacy arriving and the unenthusiastic word-of-mouth, but a 68% drop is still quite ugly. I doubt a domestic total around $60 million is what Sony envisioned, especially with how aggressively they marketed it.Ice Age is gaining some long legs late in its run.Ted is just about done with its very impressive run. The Amazing Spider-Man is also on its way out, having had a solid if unspectacular performance.The Watch crumbled against The Campaign. I can't say I'm surprised.The top ten this weekend was even with that of this weekend last year, thanks to the strength of Bourne's opening. Next weekend should be another "up" frame with The Expendables 2 exploding onto the scene.

[rickfox]

http://www.boxoffice...rk-knight-rises

estimates that The Dark Knight Rises will gross $34.2 million internationally this weekend, bringing its overseas total to $445.3 million. Rises is now pacing 28% ahead of The Dark Knight using 2008 exchange rates at the same point in time and 46% ahead at current exchange rates.----

some good news at last

[#ED]

Next weekend hopefully TDKR can stay above 12M.

[ecstasy]

The Bourne Legacy is off to a pretty good start. It was never going to reach the levels of Supremacy and Ultimatum without Matt Damon, but the fact that it opened about $3 million above The Bourne Identity's adjusted opening is a testament to the effectiveness of the marketing and the residual goodwill audiences have toward the franchise. The opening is especially solid when one considers that other sequels where the main draw was replaced, like XXX: State of the Union and The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, had disastrous performances at the box office. It's hard to say where the Bourne brand will go from here since audiences don't seem to be as satisfied with this installment, but it will make money for Universal.The Campaign is also off to a solid start. While Will Ferrell is a draw on his own, I think it helped that the advertising actually looked funny, which was not true of The Watch when it landed with a thud two weeks ago. With only one other comedy going into wide release between now and the end of September, it should see a fairly leggy run.The Dark Knight Rises held its ground against the openers, which is about the best one could ask for at this point. It's poised to surpass $400 million by Friday at the latest, and will surpass The Hunger Games as the year's second highest-grossing film next weekend. It's not the unbelievably boffo run we expected, but its total will still be huge enough that it's tough to complain.Hope Springs opened very well, especially given the relatively low theater count. While it's not on the same level as Meryl Streep's other hits in recent years (all of which had some factor that allowed them to have some level of appeal to audiences outside of Streep's target senior citizen demographic), it's hard to think of many other stars who can open a dramedy for adults to $20 million in five days. Between strong reviews and word-of-mouth, it will hang in there for a while.Diary of a Wimpy Kid continues to trail its predecessors, but it held better than those films did in their second weekends. I don't know if there are any more installments planned, but this one will be a solid enough moneymaker that Fox could probably do a fourth one if they desire.Total Recall had a disastrous second weekend. It was a given that the drop wouldn't be pretty with The Bourne Legacy arriving and the unenthusiastic word-of-mouth, but a 68% drop is still quite ugly. I doubt a domestic total around $60 million is what Sony envisioned, especially with how aggressively they marketed it.Ice Age is gaining some long legs late in its run.Ted is just about done with its very impressive run. The Amazing Spider-Man is also on its way out, having had a solid if unspectacular performance.The Watch crumbled against The Campaign. I can't say I'm surprised.The top ten this weekend was even with that of this weekend last year, thanks to the strength of Bourne's opening. Next weekend should be another "up" frame with The Expendables 2 exploding onto the scene.

Very nice write up. Enjoyed reading it all.

[Shawn Robbins]

Just now noticed how Sith, ROTK and DH2 (all finales) ended up so close to each other with varying degrees of inflation.