Aug. 17-19, 2012 Studio Weekend Estimates (coming in...)

[MovieMan89]

I think Catching FIre could actually decrease. I see it as a similar effect to Spider-Man and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. Big first movies that captured the market at the right time, and subsequent sequels didn't quite match that despite doing great numbers..

Yeah I know this is how most people feel about CF right now, but I think something has to be said for THG's amazing longevity and obvious likability among the general audiences. HP1 never really had that outside of the already established Potter fanbase. SM1 certainly was well loved among the general public and SM2 still decreased, so even still CF could decrease. I just have a feeling it will be the biggest of the series though, granted it's a solid film. Edited August 18, 2012 by MovieMan89

[MrPink]

But they wont. Disney enjoys the extra $$$. Anyone would.But Nolan......(not a nolanite!)

Sure, but the point is that the Avengers 2 is easily capable of beating TDKR with 2D grosses alone.

[Ozymandias]

I didn't lose any argument. You're the one who made an idiotic comment, got called out on it and then called others "clowns" for pointing out the obvious stupidity of your point.

I already said that the word I used can be interpreted as too broad. You can't admit this because you're apparently some angry nerd that believes in absolution to the extreme. It didn't invalidate anything I said and you're grasping at straws because you just got verbally sodomized. You can join Futurist and Rallax to become the 3 stooges of this forum rofl. Edited August 18, 2012 by Shpongle

[redfirebird2008]

The Spider-Man argument is very relevant for THG2. SM1 had awesome legs and huge home video sales. The sequel received even stronger reception from critics and most fans seem to rate it higher than SM1, but it still dropped in gross. The thing THG2 has going for it is that SM1 was basically maxed out already. 70 million tickets is gigantic. There is theoretically more room to grow for THG2.

[Shawn Robbins]

Avengers already did this year by a long shot. TA is about $565m without 3D.

Assuming that 3D wasn't actually an attraction for some of those tickets -- namely kids. Not much of anyone else though...

Catching Fire definitely could. Still over a year away though.

Could, but I doubt that it will for now just based on the history of follow-ups to huge-grossers.

And where are they now then?

Clearly they didn't like it all that much.

There's nothing clear about that at all. You're basically inferring that its drop was caused by poor word of mouth. If that were true, the film's legs should have indicated it first. And even if it were true, the assumption of it being the only factor is a bit misguided in the current climate, no? Edited August 18, 2012 by ShawnMR

[lab276]

Yeah I know this is how most people feel about CF right now, but I think something has to be said for THG's amazing longevity and obvious likability among the general audiences. HP1 never really had that outside of the already established Potter fanbase. SM1 certainly was well loved among the general public and SM2 still decreased, so even still CF could decrease. I just have a feeling it will be the biggest of the series though, granted it's a solid film.

I seem to be disagreeing with you a lot today. At best CF will match THG.

[Jack Nevada]

CF will do about 360M imo

[redfirebird2008]

I already said that the word I used can be interpreted as too broad. You can't admit this because you're apparently some angry nerd that believes in absolution to the extreme. It didn't invalidate anything I said and you're grasping at straws because you just got verbally sodomized. You can join Futurist and Rallax to become the 3 stooges of this forum rofl.

Your own backtracking doesn't invalidate it, the box office numbers themselves completely obliterate what you originally said. TDKR would have made sub-300 domestic if your original argument was true. Have a nice day.

[nAlkaline]

I dont see any 2D movie beating TDKR anytime soon.

So? What's your actual point? You're just hanging your hat on a pointless argument because you want to put TDKR on a pedestal. The 2D vs. 3D argument makes no sense at all; we have the math to adjust for the impact of 3D viewings on a film's final gross, and it tells us that, 3D or not, films like TA soundly beat TDKR and will continue to do so.You want studios to release movies in a less profitable medium for what purpose? Sure, "purely" 2D films probably won't be beating TDKR in the future, because the overwhelming majority of blockbusters are going to be released in 3D.

[MovieMan89]

I think it will largely depend on how big CF's OW gets. If it gets over 190m which is entirely possible, then it could outgross TDKR with as low as a 2.3x multi.

[druv10]

Your own backtracking doesn't invalidate it, the box office numbers themselves completely obliterate what you originally said. TDKR would have made sub-300 domestic if your original argument was true. Have a nice day.

Move on red. It's pointless to argue with someone who just doesn't want to listen.

[wileECoyote]

Don't know if this was posted but looks like BOM updated:

Rank*	Title	Friday 8/17 (Estimates)	Saturday 8/18	Sunday 8/19	Monday 8/20
1	THE EXPENDABLES 2 Lionsgate 3,316	$10,500,000 -- / $3,166 $10,500,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	THE BOURNE LEGACY Universal 3,753	$5,300,000 +73.6% / $1,412 $57,861,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	PARANORMAN Focus Features 3,429	$4,560,000 -- / $1,330 $4,560,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	SPARKLE (2012) TriStar 2,244	$4,550,000 -- / $2,028 $4,550,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
5	THE CAMPAIGN Warner Bros. 3,255	$4,175,000 +69.5% / $1,283 $42,484,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
6	THE ODD LIFE OF TIMOTHY GREEN Buena Vista 2,598	$3,403,000 +72.4% / $1,310 $7,681,000 / 3	N/A	N/A	N/A
7	THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Warner Bros. 3,157	$3,125,000 +53.8% / $990 $401,901,000 / 29	N/A	N/A	N/A
8	HOPE SPRINGS Sony / Columbia 2,361	$2,750,000 +76.6% / $1,165 $28,702,000 / 10	N/A	N/A	N/A
9	DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: DOG DAYS Fox 2,737	$1,150,000 +27.7% / $420 $36,062,000 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
10	TOTAL RECALL (2012) Sony / Columbia 2,434	$1,050,000 +15.7% / $431 $49,332,000 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
11	ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT Fox 2,274	$820,000 +12.3% / $361 $148,006,000 / 36	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	BRAVE Buena Vista 641	$220,000 -3% / $343 $228,526,000 / 57	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD Fox Searchlight 236	$150,000 +55.5% / $636 $7,698,000 / 52	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	THE WATCH Fox 513	$121,000 -48.2% / $236 $32,681,000 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	THE INTOUCHABLES (U.S.-ONLY) Weinstein Company 194	$90,000 +64.1% / $464 $6,622,000 / 85	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	RUBY SPARKS Fox Searchlight 218	$83,000 +41.6% / $381 $1,578,000 / 24	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	-	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

[Ozymandias]

Your own backtracking doesn't invalidate it, the box office numbers themselves completely obliterate what you originally said. TDKR would have made sub-300 domestic if your original argument was true. Have a nice day.

I love how the original debate we were having has completely disappeared because you lost and then you went back and tried to change what I said to something else once you realized that. Hilarious.

[nAlkaline]

Assuming that 3D wasn't actually an attraction for some of those tickets -- namely kids.

Ridiculous argument. I don't think anyone can reasonably say that the amount of people that want to see a movie purely because it's in 3D is relevant. Everyone, kids included, don't care if a terrible movie is in 3D. Say you tell kids that a movie is coming out. It's a serious expose on Shakespeare in Victorian England and the impact of the social environment on his writing. But WAIT, it's in 3D. Kids won't give a damn about the format, if the movie doesn't interest them first. People went to see Avengers because the concept was cool and executed well, not because of the 3D.This conversation will never happen:Kid: I want to see TA.Parent: Why?Kid: It's in 3D!This will.Kid: I want to see TA.Parent: Why?Kid: It's got the Hulk, IM, CA, and Thor wrecking shit up.Sure, the visuals may push people who will go see it to see it in 3D, but we know the 2D/3D split and can adjust for it with the numbers.The only film that you can argue about this absurd 3D effect is Avatar, and that's a completely different ballgame. That movie sold itself on the next generation of film visuals alone. TA did not...and certainly not in any manner to change the facts of its adjusted performance against TDKR. It whipped it, fair and square. Edited August 18, 2012 by nAlkaline

[MovieMan89]

The Spider-Man argument is very relevant for THG2. SM1 had awesome legs and huge home video sales. The sequel received even stronger reception from critics and most fans seem to rate it higher than SM1, but it still dropped in gross. The thing THG2 has going for it is that SM1 was basically maxed out already. 70 million tickets is gigantic. There is theoretically more room to grow for THG2.

Agreed. I just said I have a feeling CF will be the biggest of the series. Just like I had a feeling THG would be bigger than BD2. That doesn't mean that looking at statistics really supports that claim though. Still it is possible. Edited August 18, 2012 by MovieMan89

[redfirebird2008]

I didn't change anything. You said what you said dude. Keep spinning all you want, but this is pretty black and white:

[John Marston]

If TDKR had opened with 180m the same multiple it has would allow it to get to 500m. I think it could have done that

[Shawn Robbins]

Yeah but there were 3 this year that really stood out more than usual.The Dark Knight Rises - Most people had it at 190-200m OW/575-600m which was just ridicuously outlandish. TDK had 6 months of dead celebrity hype and a villain that is bigger than Batman himself. There was no way TDKR was gonna increase in admissions or even gross on its own merits.Prometheus - Most people had it over 200m, yet that would've been astronomically high for an R-rated horror film... but then again Prometheus was sold as something it wasn't.Expendables 2 - Most people had this around 120-150m. Its one of the internets favorite movies + the addition of much more superstars in it.

Eh, TDKR doesn't really belong in that group. Until there's a relative comparison to make (and there probably never will be), those arguments don't hold any weight. All we know for a fact is what the film was tracking for and how it performed relative to its market, which was on par with TDK. It might not have hit $600m like some speculated, but implying that its run so far has been completely natural just fails to hold any perspective. It has an invisible asterisk beside it. Always will, and unfortunately nothing can change that.Prometheus was just a flat-out awful film ... to a lot of people. I was one of those that bought into the hype of Scott returning to his roots. Bad move.Expendables 2, eh. Think that's a bit exaggerated. Aside from Baumer and maybe a few people on this forum, general expectations were never much higher than $100-110m for it. Certainly not in the industry. And again, the market climate prevents a real apples-to-apples comparison on that one right now. Edited August 18, 2012 by ShawnMR

[#ED]

I would only put the trilogy itself on pedestal.

[MovieMan89]

Prometheus was just a flat-out awful film ... to a lot of people.

Leave Prometheus alone!!!