China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[baumer]

3 hours ago, GOXOG said:

those you quoted just opinion from member and they re not even experts in China thread,should have gone for Gavin,Olive,Potus...

 

Okay, POTUS said 210-260

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

 

I'm just talking about stuff like this.  Unrealistic or not, this is the kind of stuff that was being talked about even a month ago.

I'm proud to say I've always said there was a chance it would go below $200m. Everything about this movie has been so atypical of China Box Office patterns and trends. 

 

I am somewhat surprised it's made it here, but it's a fantastic achievement regardless. Given pretty much all superheroes make the same $90-120m in China over the last three indicates the audience isn't expanding. Despite the fact that Ultron and Civil War were expectedly larger than $120m total, IW doing over $120m in its OW is far more than could've ever been expected given the Chinese GA don't flog to supes as much as U.S.

[abra]

SUNDAY	F8	LAST HOUR F8	IW	LAST HOUR IW	F8-IW
8AM					-
9AM		-		-	-
10AM		-		-	-
11AM		-		-	-
12PM	154,96	-	161	-	-6,04
1PM	181,2	26,24	178	17,00	3,2
2PM	206,38	25,18	200,48	22,48	5,9
3PM	229,75	23,37	220,89	20,41	8,86
4PM	250,1	20,35	237,88	16,99	12,22
5PM	269,77	19,67	253,28	15,40	16,49
6PM	298,2	28,43	268,04	14,76	30,16
7PM	330,17	31,97	284,46	16,42	45,71
8PM	351,68	21,51	301,54	17,08	50,14
9PM	367,88	16,20	315,42	13,88	52,46
10PM	378,54	10,66		-	-

 

[UserHN]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

 

I'm just talking about stuff like this.  Unrealistic or not, this is the kind of stuff that was being talked about even a month ago.

Those quotes are talking about China TOTALS. IW will make $300M+ TOTAL even with bad legs like BP.

[baumer]

Anyway, this isn't my fight.  I'm just here for the numbers.  I hope it gets to 350.  I also hope it doesn't pass TFA WW. 

[pensivepenguin]

Just now, baumer said:

 

It has the opening weekend record, everyone is happy about that.  I'm just saying there were some outlandish numbers being talked about for this film and they didn't pan out.  For those of us who don't come to the China forum all that often, it just looks like IW came in a little below some of the biggest predictions.  It set the record and you can be happy with that while still wondering why some people had it going so high.  

Clearly not, as you can see.

[GOXOG]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Okay, POTUS said 210-260

and he state he is optimistic about it and to hit 260 it need a lot of condition,and yes he can over predict sometimes but others like olive gavin zeesoh go for more realistic around 200M though

[MT50000]

Needs to make 11.5 next hour? Or does it have beyond 10pm?

Edited May 13, 2018 by MT50000

[Deja23]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

 

I'm just talking about stuff like this.  Unrealistic or not, this is the kind of stuff that was being talked about even a month ago.

Those were predictions for the total, not just the OW. Some thought it wouldn’t get past $250m total in China, which is reasonable. In my Summer Game, I had Avengers at $260m total. I never really bought the OW being over $200m because of how unpredictable China BO is. Even local movies with the OD record end up falling off in the subsequent days so it’s fine to make lofty predictions, but acting like they were locks and IW is an underwhelming disappointment is weird imo. After the way the last several superhero movies behaved in China, it’s obvious presales aren’t going to correlate to OW for superhero movies compared to other genres. 

[bladels]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Again, he's not freaking out.  He just said he's surprised it didn't hit 200, or just barely squeaked by.  I think that's fair.  I don't think anyone is disappointed with the opening weekend record.  

Ugh, I have to disagree with that. You should check his older comments. He's much calmer now, which is a relief.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

Anyway, this isn't my fight.  I'm just here for the numbers.  I hope it gets to 350.  I also hope it doesn't pass TFA WW. 

Will mostly depend on other OS territories. They're holding the best so far in comparison to North America. If OS-China gets to $1.07B then it's game over for TFA. 

[GOXOG]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It has the opening weekend record, everyone is happy about that.  I'm just saying there were some outlandish numbers being talked about for this film and they didn't pan out.  For those of us who don't come to the China forum all that often, it just looks like IW came in a little below some of the biggest predictions.  It set the record and you can be happy with that while still wondering why some people had it going so high.  

it just like domestic club,people predicts too.Doesnt mean any number throw around should consider target.im nothing against thylos being disappointed but he set himself up for that.And the way he keep telling everyone this is disappointing number.............

Edited May 13, 2018 by GOXOG

[MT50000]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Will mostly depend on other OS territories. They're holding the best so far in comparison to North America. If OS-China gets to $1.07B then it's game over for TFA. 

Not sure about China, but I'm optimistic IW does better than $650m DOM, more like $680.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Just now, MT50000 said:

Not sure about China, but I'm optimistic IW does better than $650m DOM, more like $680.

Yeah for now I assume Domestic+China gets to $1 Billion so OS-China will need to make up the difference. But yeah I can see Infinity War holding better in North America and (less realistic) in China too. 

[Olive]

Superhero movies still lack attraction to older people (40 +) and audience in small towns.

And IW's WOM is good, but not good enough to broaden its target audience.

[MT50000]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah for now I assume Domestic+China gets to $1 Billion so OS-China will need to make up the difference. But yeah I can see Infinity War holding better in North America and (less realistic) in China too. 

Do you know how the typical legs of a SH film in China go?

Like how much to expect by Thursday, and by the end of the second weekend ect?

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, Proxima Olive said:

Superhero movies still lack attraction to older people (40 +) and audience in small towns.

And IW's WOM is good, but not good enough to broaden its target audience.

Do you think it will settle at $199M OW?

[meriodejaneiro]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

 

I'm just talking about stuff like this.  Unrealistic or not, this is the kind of stuff that was being talked about even a month ago.

 

10 minutes ago, GOXOG said:

those you quoted just opinion from member and they re not even experts in China thread,should have gone for Gavin,Olive,Potus...

But do you realize those expectations/opinions were for TOTAL China run, right? not China opening weekend. 

[UserHN]

Just now, MT50000 said:

Do you know how the typical legs of a SH film in China go?

Like how much to expect by Thursday, and by the end of the second weekend ect?

BP (which has 8. 0 rating on Maoyan) had a little more than 1.6x multiple. Homecoming (8.1) had almost 1.7x multiple. JL (8.6) and Ragnarok (8.9) both had more than 2x multiple. IW has 8.6 so I'm expecting around 1.8x - 1.9x multiple.

[GOXOG]

1 minute ago, meriodejaneiro said:

 

But do you realize those expectations/opinions were for TOTAL China run, right? not China opening weekend. 

yes i know that too and yes everyone can predict  but thyrlos go for the best number he can see and call this is underperforming