MattW Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 http://qz.com/498184/chinas-latest-patriotic-blockbuster-film-is-a-39-million-box-office-sham/ The ratios of screenings and admissions in this article suggest as much as $20m shifted from T5 to Hundred Regiments (if all screenings were equally full and if it didn't shift from any other movies as well, both big ifs). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 China Box Office #CemeteryofSplendour manages to both lull you into a trance and jar you awake with its languid, dreamy pace. Phenomenal movie #NYFF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 China Box Office #CemeteryofSplendour manages to both lull you into a trance and jar you awake with its languid, dreamy pace. Phenomenal movie #NYFF This is a Thai movie... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Nice to see MI5 doing better than Minions in China. Many expected Minions to dominate. MI5 will easily outgross Pixels of course over the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviedweeb Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Will MI5 still hit $150m? The underperformance of Minions and Pixels, although targeting different groups, seems to boad well for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 It will hit 150m with ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Yeah, if it does not match my projection this weekend and hit by LiHK next weekend, then under 500M yuan is likely. As a Minions hater, I'm really surprised by its performance.. It would truly be a shock if China doesn't even end up as the #1 OS market for Minions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 (edited) Whatever for minions. I am still not dramatically lowering my predictions for KFP3. Below 350m would still be a disappointment for me and I am still expecting it to be among the top 2 (or at min top 3 grossers for next year). Do you guys think the top movies of next year will be below this year's top ones? That isn't even possible right now. We're you guys basing KFP3's performance on how minions will perform? Coz I definitely wasn't. I was and am still basing its performance on how much the top movies of the year are making and not on how the other animated movies are doing for this isn't in their league. And what about the fact that's it getting released nearly at the same time here as everywhere else and also on a very good date? I just read this guy who was earlier predicting 500m for it and actually fighting with all those saying otherwise saying that he doesn't think it's going above the 250-300 range anymore. How easily can you guys be wavered? It really kind of proves these guys just put out random numbers or go with the whatever others are saying and makes it more and more difficult to really take such guys seriously.. Edited September 17, 2015 by Infernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 JW MI5 Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Tues 117 117 18 Wed 107 107 17 78 -33.3% 195 31 Thur 77 -28.0% 184 30 64 -17.9% 259 41 Fri 97 26.0% 281 45 76 18.8% 335 53 Sat 168 73.2% 449 72 128 68.4% 463 73 Sun 145 -13.7% 594 96 88 -31.3% 551 87 Mon 55 -62.1% 649 105 30 -65.9% 581 91 Tues 50 -9.1% 699 113 25 -16.7% -78.6% 606 95 Wed 45 -10.0% -57.9% 744 120 22 -12.0% -71.8% 628 99 Thur 40 -11.1% -48.1% 784 126 20 -9.1% -68.8% 648 102 est Fri 60 50.0% -38.1% 844 136 25 25.0% -67.1% 673 106 proj Sat 120 100.0% -28.6% 964 155 42 68.0% -67.2% 715 112 proj Sun 90 -25.0% -37.9% 1054 170 30 -28.6% -65.9% 745 117 proj Mon 55 -38.9% 1109 179 12 -60.0% -60.0% 757 119 proj Tues 50 -9.1% 1159 187 10.5 -12.5% -58.0% 768 121 proj Wed 45 -10.0% 0.0% 1204 194 9.5 -9.5% -56.8% 777 122 proj Thur 40 -11.1% 0.0% 1244 201 8.5 -10.5% -57.5% 786 124 proj 1400 229 875 -925 137 -145 Its going to need to hold -60% this weekend to get to $150m. So far -66% looks to be in the cards unless it really pops off of Thursday Using 10-11x Day2 + OD looks like its going to work for this MI5 as other action movies. OD can be skewed and hard to tell if it will be 5x or 6x or 7x. and we're multiplying a much larger number that can throw things further off Day 2 is tighter for projecting 10x D2 +OD 900m 11x D2 +OD 975m 14-15x D2 +OD is looking to be the formula for family movies That puts Minions at 480m-505m 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Whatever for minions. I am still not dramatically lowering my predictions for KFP3. Below 350m would still be a disappointment for me and I am still expecting it to be among the top 2 (or at min top 3 grossers for next year). Do you guys think the top movies of next year will be below this year's top ones? That isn't even possible right now. We're you guys basing KFP3's performance on how minions will perform? Coz I definitely wasn't. I was and am still basing its performance on how much the top movies of the year are making and not on how the other animated movies are doing for this isn't in their league. And what about the fact that's it getting released nearly at the same time here as everywhere else and also on a very good date? I just read this guy who was earlier predicting 500m for it and actually fighting with all those saying otherwise saying that he doesn't think it's going above the 250-300 range anymore. How easily can you guys be wavered? It really kind of proves these guys just put out random numbers or go with the whatever others are saying and makes it more and more difficult to really take such guys seriously.. We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory. 250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory. 250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator This is the best analysis I've read for KFP3 and Minions in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Monster Hunt ended its run with 2438M yuan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 (edited) We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory. 250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator Yeah, animated movies still haven't reached the level of live action movies even now and yet KFP2 was the highest grossing movie of its year back on 2011... That is exactly what I'm saying. KFP3 is simply above the level of other animated movies. It is not to be compared with them or gauged by their current level. Instead it is to be compared with what the top movies of the year are making. And as for WOM, yeah it's absolutely necessary for a movie to have really good WOM to reach some numbers. My predictions are based on the belief that the movie would be a good one and especially made to suit the Chinese taste. In the end I do realize it is completely possible for it end up at much lower than I expect it to and disappoint like AOU in US but that's what I am saying-if it does end up at close to just 250 it will and should be considered a disappointment just like AOU was considered a disappointment at 450m in the US. 250-300 while a definitely possible range, will not be one I 'expect' for it but what I'll be considering as the possible 'disappointment' range for it. Edited September 17, 2015 by Infernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 My projections: Thur 13.3M -15% Fri 20M +50% Sat 56M +180% Sun 50M -11% 320-325m after Sunday. week 3 130m(Lost in Hongkong opening) week 4 50m(Several big local movies on that Wed) week 5 25m(Inside out opening) Will end up 520-530M, around what BH6 made. Thursday est MI5 - 20.4M/649M Minions - 13.5M/195M Pixels - 7.8M/31.4M Assassination - 4.3M OD 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Monster Hunt ended its run with 2438M yuan. And FF7 ended with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 And FF7 ended with? 2426m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 What's the exchange rate for the yuan and USD right now? 6.33? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 What's the exchange rate for the yuan and USD right now? 6.33? 6.36 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 (edited) I wouldn't be too disappointed if KFP3 only makes around $250-300M in China. After all, it will still be a huge feat. And with that gross, it would actually beat IA3 & IA4, WW & OS-wise, overall. Edited September 17, 2015 by MrFanaticGuy34 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I have MH at 391.1 using daily adjusted XR. was 6.21 for 80% of the revenue early in the run, 6.36-6.42 at the end FF7 was 390 and change at a consistent rate of $1=6.21 asterisk time FF7; * had only 4 full weekends * had 30 days vs 60 * was released during a slow month after busy season ^ made $15m its last 7 days. would have made at least $10-15m more * ice cream sundae served at theaters without fudge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...