A Marvel Fanboy Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 (edited) 2015 Top 10 [As of Oct] Rank Tittle 片名 Distributor Total Gross (RMB) Total Gross (US$) Country 2D/3D Open 1 Monster Hunt 捉妖记 Union Pictures ¥2,433,890,000 $392,562,903 China 3D 16-Jul 2 Furious 7 速度与激情7 CFGC ¥2,426,340,000 $391,345,161 US 3D 12-Apr 3 Lost in HK 港囧 Enlight ¥1,700,000,000 $274,193,548 China 2D 25-Sep Estimates 4 Avengers: Age of Ultron 复仇者联盟2 CFGC ¥1,464,020,000 $236,132,258 US 3D 12-May 5 Jurassic World 侏罗纪世界 CFGC ¥1,420,200,000 $229,064,516 US 3D 10-Jun 6 Goodbye Mr. Loser 夏洛特烦恼 Wu Zhou ¥1,300,000,000 $203,125,000 China 2D 30-Sep Estimates 7 Jian Bing Man 煎饼侠 Wu Zhou ¥1,159,490,000 $187,014,516 China 2D 17-Jul 8 The Man from Macau 2 澳门风云2 Bona ¥974,440,000 $156,160,256 China 2D 19-Feb 9 Monkey King: Hero is Back 西游记之大圣归来 Juhe Yinglian ¥955,940,000 $154,183,871 China 3D 10-Jul 10 Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation 碟中谍5 CFGC ¥870,000,000 $135,937,500 US 2D 8-Sep Estimates Rogue Nation will be the first Mission not in yearly top 10. With Ghouls, Skptrace and Breakup Guru 2 still to come, top 10 could all be over 1B. Btw. In 2013, Detective Dee handily won the October Holiday with just 600m, but now, two years later, that number wont even be in the top 3 among October Holiday releases. October Holiday 2014 produced Breakup Buddies, a $190m blockbusters but one year later we have literally 2.5 Breakup Buddieses over the same period. Incredible. Edited October 7, 2015 by firedeep 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Asuming that US is still doing more money and its biggest films are still quite bigger than in China, if we look at the top 10 yearly, we can see that both countries have the same number of films over $200m. The next step for China will be to have 400-500 million grossers and keep the gap narrowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Asuming that US is still doing more money and its biggest films are still quite bigger than in China, if we look at the top 10 yearly, we can see that both countries have the same number of films over $200m. The next step for China will be to have 400-500 million grossers and keep the gap narrowing. US didn't have any movies over $360m last year and did 10.3B. China has 2 and possibly 3 over 360m if GML continues to blow up but will still do less than 7.5B. Too much feast or famine. Its either big over 3 weeks or it fades from theater in 10 days too often. They need more in the middle, $50-150m movies that are quality, not hype, and may take time to roll out and catch on which is tough in china with the way they pull screens quickly. There are many movies per year in the US that roll out slowly and build momo and make 50m to over 100m in 3 to 4 months, especially late fall into the Oscar season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Apparently in Sep, the Chinese market is only 13% smaller than North America. http://www.entgroup.cn/news/Exclusive/0626368.shtml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 US didn't have any movies over $360m last year and did 10.3B. China has 2 and possibly 3 over 360m if GML continues to blow up but will still do less than 7.5B. Too much feast or famine. Its either big over 3 weeks or it fades from theater in 10 days too often. They need more in the middle, $50-150m movies that are quality, not hype, and may take time to roll out and catch on which is tough in china with the way they pull screens quickly. There are many movies per year in the US that roll out slowly and build momo and make 50m to over 100m in 3 to 4 months, especially late fall into the Oscar season I am conscious of the differences of both markets. I just took the top 10 list posted by @firedeep and I did a quick comparison. I prefer to see the films over a lower amount. For instance, $50m/320 million Yuan (I prefer to take a Yuan figure instead a dollar one given the continous change of ER) . Since 2010, US has made 66-69 films per year making those $50m. China had 5 films in 2010 over 320 million Yuan, 8 in 2011, 13 in 2012, 19 in 2013, 30 in 2014. This year, for the moment, the result is 41 vs 34. I have no doubts that US will increase that amount towards the usual 65-70 films because of awards season. The question is which will be the Chinese number, 40?, 45? that would mean 10-15 films more than last year reaching a considerable amount. China continues growing and narrowing the gap. Obviously, there is still a big difference, but unless the market collapses (there is a certain risk given some doubts about the economy), the trend is clear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 This puppy wont quit. Another increase. Appling standard sunday to Monday drop to tomorrow then the usual weekend bumps, Saturday will be flat to today and the rest of the week plays out charted below. Assuming it has 35-40% holds like MH after that it gets to 1.9B. A bump on Saturday and a couple holds better than -35% and it blows thru 2B and could challenge MH. Ive never seen a run like this. GML TMK Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Wed 23 23 4 Thur 40 73.9% 63 10 Fri 50 25.0% 113 18 28 28 5 Sat 63 26.0% 176 28 28 0.0% 56 9 Sun 78 23.8% 254 40 40 42.9% 96 15 Mon 98 25.6% 352 55 40 0.0% 136 22 Tues 112 14.3% 464 73 58 45.0% 194 31 Est Wed 118 5.4% 413.0% 582 92 66 13.8% 260 42 Proj Thur 55 -53.4% 37.5% 637 103 49 -25.8% 309 50 Proj Fri 70 27.3% 40.0% 707 114 37 -24.5% 32.1% 346 56 Proj Sat 118 68.6% 87.3% 825 133 62 67.6% 121.4% 408 66 Proj Sun 110 -6.8% 41.0% 935 151 61 -1.6% 52.5% 469 76 Proj Mon 50 -54.5% -49.0% 985 159 30 -50.8% -25.0% 499 80 Proj Tue 45 -10.0% -59.8% 1030 166 28 -6.7% -51.7% 527 85 Proj Wed 40 -11.1% -66.1% 1070 172 25 -10.7% -62.1% 552 89 Proj Thu 36 -10.0% -34.5% 1106 178 22 -12.0% -55.1% 574 92 1900 205 956 154 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 (edited) Seems MINIONS has a good chance of topping IA4 in China to become 3rd highest Hollywood animated film EVER in China after KFP2 and BH6. Cool! Edited October 7, 2015 by MinaTakla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Seems MINIONS has a good chance of topping IA4 in China to become 3rd highest Hollywood animated film EVER in China after KFP2 and BH6. Amazing! Minions run is far from amazing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 MINIONS is the most hyped hollywood movie on par with AOU. Less than 450m yuan is just disappointing and embarrassing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 It definitely performed below expectations but at least has bragging rights for 3rd highest Hollywood animation until KFP3 comes out and pushes it 4th. What's amazing is that only 3 or 4 Hollywood films have exceeded 70m in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Wednesday Est Goodbye Mr. Loser:114M/593M LiHK: 36.4M/1486M Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 33.5M/577M Saving Mr Wu: 12.5M/139M Minions 3.1M/432M MI5 1.4M/868M Inside out 20m/49.1m Golden week had a whopping 68% increase over last year!(1.85b vs 1.1b) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Last Thursday LiHK did 125M and GML did 40M. In 6 days, the numbers have practically reverserved. Crazy!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hawk Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Accused of Hiding Money, China Agrees to New Rules in Secret Hollywood Summit http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/accused-hiding-money-china-agrees-830118 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Seems MINIONS has a good chance of topping IA4 in China to become 3rd highest Hollywood animated film EVER in China after KFP2 and BH6. Cool! Oh, c'mon now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynosure Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 It's also the biggest animated movie in China whose title starts with an 'M'. Staggering !!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I don't think barely beating Ice Age 4 is a big deal. Minions had 3 more years of market growth and should have done a lot more. When it fails to make even half of what most people here expected as the floor, I consider that a big underperformance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A District 3 Engineer Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Hi boys, do you think mp2 will be released on November 20 or will be pushed back to 2016? Have you read something about it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Last year Break up Buddies was down just 45% on the 8th as well as the #2 and 3 movies for GW. Here is GML compared to MH. Maybe it can make a run at it if it can out perform my projections for the next week. GML MH Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Wed 23 33 5 Thur 40 73.9% 73 12 165 165 27 Fri 50 25.0% 123 19 132 297 48 Sat 63 26.0% 186 29 188 42.4% 485 78 Sun 79 25.4% 265 42 184 -2.1% 669 108 Mon 98 24.1% 363 57 110 -40.2% 779 125 Tues 112 14.3% 475 75 103 -6.4% 882 142 Est Wed 118 5.4% 413.0% 593 93 85 -17.5% 967 156 Proj Thur 60 -49.2% 50.0% 653 105 83 -2.4% -49.7% 1050 169 Proj Fri 73 21.7% 46.0% 726 117 81 -2.4% -38.6% 1131 182 Proj Sat 118 61.6% 87.3% 844 136 121 49.4% -35.6% 1252 202 Proj Sun 110 -6.8% 39.2% 954 154 125 3.3% -32.1% 1377 222 Proj Mon 50 -54.5% -49.0% 1004 162 64 -48.8% -41.8% 1441 232 Proj Tue 47 -6.0% -58.0% 1051 169 62 -3.1% -39.8% 1503 242 Proj Wed 43 -8.5% -63.6% 1094 176 57 -8.1% -32.9% 1560 251 Proj Thu 38 -11.6% -36.7% 1132 182 44 -22.8% -47.0% 1604 258 1900 300 2438 391 7 days of increases. That's a record not soon broken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Last year Break up Buddies was down just 45% on the 8th as well as the #2 and 3 movies for GW. Here is GML compared to MH. Maybe it can make a run at it if it can out perform my projections for the next week. GML MH Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Wed 23 33 5 Thur 40 73.9% 73 12 165 165 27 Fri 50 25.0% 123 19 132 297 48 Sat 63 26.0% 186 29 188 42.4% 485 78 Sun 79 25.4% 265 42 184 -2.1% 669 108 Mon 98 24.1% 363 57 110 -40.2% 779 125 Est Tues 112 14.3% 475 75 103 -6.4% 882 142 Proj Wed 118 5.4% 413.0% 593 93 85 -17.5% 967 156 Proj Thur 60 -49.2% 50.0% 653 105 83 -2.4% -49.7% 1050 169 Proj Fri 73 21.7% 46.0% 726 117 81 -2.4% -38.6% 1131 182 Proj Sat 118 61.6% 87.3% 844 136 121 49.4% -35.6% 1252 202 Proj Sun 110 -6.8% 39.2% 954 154 125 3.3% -32.1% 1377 222 Proj Mon 50 -54.5% -49.0% 1004 162 64 -48.8% -41.8% 1441 232 Proj Tue 47 -6.0% -58.0% 1051 169 62 -3.1% -39.8% 1503 242 Proj Wed 43 -8.5% -63.6% 1094 176 57 -8.1% -32.9% 1560 251 Proj Thu 38 -11.6% -36.7% 1132 182 44 -22.8% -47.0% 1604 258 1900 300 2438 391 Edited October 8, 2015 by M F Lawrence 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 It definitely performed below expectations but at least has bragging rights for 3rd highest Hollywood animation until KFP3 comes out and pushes it 4th. What's amazing is that only 3 or 4 Hollywood films have exceeded 70m in China. The run was fine, don't listen to them. KFP2 was a phenomenon and shouldn't be compared to. To think it could do over 150-200m, let alone over 100m when no HLWD toon could do it in the 4 years since KFP2 did 96m is ludicrous. Frozen was a WW phenom, it did more OS and WW than Minions and could do just 50m last year. Minions not quite doubled IO's OS BO and it will more than double IO's china BO. Kids just went back to school. HLWD does not release big movies skewing younger a week after school is back in for an obvious reason. Sept is historically the worst BO month in Domestic and in most other countries. Was close to the bottom last year in China and dead last in 2013. MH and TMK were huge hits that just closed, tough to follow Title may have been a turn off. "Little Yellow People" sounds a bit racist to me I got caught in the hype myself instead of being analytical. Having said that... I say KFP3 doesn't break 200m. KFP2 was an all time #1 anomaly and will unlikely be beaten when adding in market increase (300m+). I don't see why it would double TMK. Maybe it beats it, but not by much. Chinese just don't do toons like other countries. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...