UserHN Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) 22 minutes ago, fmpro said: Looks like 11-11,5 mill for JL today and mayby 20-22 for Coco No out of this world drop for Coco but still good for a animated movie Hmm.. so it means Coco won't likely have a wild run like Zootopia and Dangal, right? Does this mean that $100 million is unlikely? Too bad. The movie is so amazing. Edited November 27, 2017 by UserHN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, UserHN said: Hmm.. so it means Coco won't likely have a wild run like Zootopia and Dangal, right? Does this mean that $100 million is unlikely? Too bad. The movie is so amazing. From my impression, and I'm not an expert in CBO, but I think $100M is still assured, the question is more whether it can do $150M+ Edited November 27, 2017 by NCsoft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 50 minutes ago, NCsoft said: From my impression, and I'm not an expert in CBO, but I think $100M is still assured, the question is more whether it can do $150M+ 65% drop is great for a toon (WoM spillover is in play) but not like zoos 50%. Could be the demo is a little younger. More importantly, if WoM is still building we'll see an increase on tuesday. $100m locked $150m jury still out until i see tues and wed numbers. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 hour ago, UserHN said: Hmm.. so it means Coco won't likely have a wild run like Zootopia and Dangal, right? Does this mean that $100 million is unlikely? Too bad. The movie is so amazing. Still feel 100 mill will happen but monday drop indicates that this will not be Zootopia 2.0.. But that will be more clear in a day or 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 Agreed. $100m still locked. $150m still possible ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) PS for tomorrow at 2.85m and will get to 3.1-3.2m. Were PS 2.7m for today? I cant remember. A bump will make saturday 100m+, up 100%+ WoW Edited November 27, 2017 by POTUS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, POTUS said: PS for tomorrow at 2.85m and will get to 3.1-3.2m. Were PS 2.7m for today? I cant remember. A bump will make saturday 100m+, up 100%+ WoW You're right. Tuesday presales for Coco and JL are bigger than Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I have no idea about how the chinese BO works but is it really so easy to predict a movie that opened with under 20m will go north of 100m just from 3-4 days of performance? It seems kind of mind bogling to me. In any case great for Coco. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainiac5 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: You're right. Tuesday presales for Coco and JL are bigger than Monday. What’s JL Number for Monday ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Joel M said: I have no idea about how the chinese BO works but is it really so easy to predict a movie that opened with under 20m will go north of 100m just from 3-4 days of performance? It seems kind of mind bogling to me. In any case great for Coco. I’m not very well versed in how Chinese BO work either but I imagine in this case, it’s a bit like how in US, we predict what’s a movie gonna do in wide release base off limited release numbers. Coco started off with small number of showtimes, but metrics like Maoyan/Douban ratings show indication of great reviews/WOM that will guarantee to spread. Thus leading to significant demand that calls for big increases in supply (showtimes/screens) to follow. Plus, there were precedents like Zootopia or Dangal that help with predicting the trend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Joel M said: I have no idea about how the chinese BO works but is it really so easy to predict a movie that opened with under 20m will go north of 100m just from 3-4 days of performance? It seems kind of mind bogling to me. In any case great for Coco. 99% of the times it is. Its all about number of screens/release date and WOM Edited November 27, 2017 by fmpro Added release date 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 7 hours ago, fmpro said: Looks like 11-11,5 mill for JL today and mayby 20-22 for Coco No out of this world drop for Coco but still good for a animated movie 20 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said: What’s JL Number for Monday ? High side for JL and low side for Coco 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lielixthe Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, Sam said: I’m not very well versed in how Chinese BO work either but I imagine in this case, it’s a bit like how in US, we predict what’s a movie gonna do in wide release base off limited release numbers. Coco started off with small number of showtimes, but metrics like Maoyan/Douban ratings show indication of great reviews/WOM that will guarantee to spread. Thus leading to significant demand that calls for big increases in supply (showtimes/screens) to follow. Plus, there were precedents like Zootopia or Dangal that help with predicting the trend. Would like to ask if this'll conversely chunk out JL's showtimes, or will Coco be eating away mostly at the holdovers instead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 And Coco + JL seems to be headed for a tuesday increase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, lielixthe said: Would like to ask if this'll conversely chunk out JL's showtimes, or will Coco be eating away mostly at the holdovers instead? Coco wont take much from JL. It will steal from all the flop local movies like Manhunt mainly 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, lielixthe said: Would like to ask if this'll conversely chunk out JL's showtimes, or will Coco be eating away mostly at the holdovers instead? Coco will kill openers and holdovers, Justice League will be slightly affected, but not as much. Justice League's WoM in China is better than recent local movies like The Brink or Manhunt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) Coco, JL and MH are all at 20% of screens. There are several small releases that are going to take 50-60% of screens. Since Coco will do 4x revenue or more than MH and JL it will hold its 20% or more. The 50%+ will come out of everything else. So far Coco has 6.1% of shows, JL has 2.3% for Friday. They will probanly keep that ratio as there percentages increase as more show post. It could settle at coco 24% and JL 8%. Then increase a bit on sat and sun. JL will reach 600m on thur, be flat on Friday DoD (10m) due to screen loss, bump 80% sat. land at 642m on Sunday. It'll crawl over 660m/$100m the following weekend Edited November 27, 2017 by POTUS 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 hour ago, POTUS said: Coco, JL and MH are all at 20% of screens. There are several small releases that are going to take 50-60% of screens. Since Coco will do 4x revenue or more than MH and JL it will hold its 20% or more. The 50%+ will come out of everything else. So far Coco has 6.1% of shows, JL has 2.3% for Friday. They will probanly keep that ratio as there percentages increase as more show post. It could settle at coco 24% and JL 8%. Then increase a bit on sat and sun. JL will reach 600m on thur, be flat on Friday DoD (10m) due to screen loss, bump 80% sat. land at 642m on Sunday. It'll crawl over 660m/$100m the following weekend monday #s for JL $1,83M ($86M total after 11 days). Thor 3 11th day was $2,41M ($98,54M total after 11 days). The gap is now at $12,5M. After day 11, Thor 3 has taken 13M (it sits at 111,57 now, might not even get to 113M final run). JL is 14M away from $100M. So JL should equals Thor 3 #s day by day for at least reaching the 100M very very very sharply. I don't understand why many of you are so sure of JL hitting 100M in China. From the opening weekend I saw it missing the mark. There must be something coming that i don't see and will push JL to the 100M mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 14 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said: monday #s for JL $1,83M ($86M total after 11 days). Thor 3 11th day was $2,41M ($98,54M total after 11 days). The gap is now at $12,5M. After day 11, Thor 3 has taken 13M (it sits at 111,57 now, might not even get to 113M final run). JL is 14M away from $100M. So JL should equals Thor 3 #s day by day for at least reaching the 100M very very very sharply. I don't understand why many of you are so sure of JL hitting 100M in China. From the opening weekend I saw it missing the mark. There must be something coming that i don't see and will push JL to the 100M mark. Thor 3 faced Justice League on its 3rd weekend, which is direct competition. JL has not that competition. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) JL has weak competition in 3rd week.Thor has JL.Coco is a surprise.But not affect JL much.There will not be another Hollywood action movie till TLJ next year.And JL will have IMAX Screens in 2 weeks.Paddington 2 will take away IMAX on December 8. Edited November 27, 2017 by bangbingchan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...