China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[justvision]

2 hours ago, commendable said:

No I think it will make the same amount it is mcu after all

He was not wrong either when he said "performing nearly identically to The Force Awakens". TFA grossed US$124 million in China, BP most probably will gross USD105m to USD115m.

 

But what I gather when he said "nearly identically to The Force Awakens" was referring to the pattern/path of BO performance of BP and TFA in China:

 

1) extra-ordinary/zeitgeist/cultural phenomenon level of BO performance/hype/overhype in US caused very high presale data and expectation in China.

 

2) Then the general audience in China found out for themselves TFA/BP did not relate so well to them/not so enjoyable/not so entertaining/just okay/just decent/nothing extra-ordinary, and they felt that TFA/BP were way too overhyped in US, and this quickly reflected in low audience score (Maoyan scores).

 

3) As China is probably #1 in the world now where WOM spreads quickly, thanks to Wechat/QQ etc, BO performance took a dive even on Sat and Sun, and certainly in the second week, thus the BO performance came far short of initial expectation, i.e aweful legs.

 

4) This would/will greatly affect BO performace of the sequels, TLJ for TFA, and BP2 for BP.

 

However, I don't think BP2 will be as dismal as TLJ (USD 42m). I think BP2 will drop about 20% in BO from BP, but it can still do above USD 90m, because (1) SH movies are much better received than SW in China/(ex-Japan)East Asia; (2) to even understand TLJ the audience need a good grasp of SW universe, while BP2 can be a rather self-contained movie.

Edited March 11, 2018 by justvision

[YLF]

20 minutes ago, justvision said:

He was not wrong either when he said "performing nearly identically to The Force Awakens". TFA grossed US$124 million in China, BP most probably will gross USD105m to USD115m.

 

But what I gather when he said "nearly identically to The Force Awakens" was referring to the pattern/path of BO performance of BP and TFA in China:

 

1) extra-ordinary/zeitgeist/cultural phenomenon level of BO performance/hype/overhype in US caused very high presale data and expectation in China.

 

2) Then the general audience in China found out for themselves TFA/BP did not relate so well to them/not so enjoyable/not so entertaining/just okay/just decent/nothing extra-ordinary, and they felt that TFA/BP were way too overhyped in US, and this quickly reflected in low audience score (Maoyan scores).

 

3) As China is probably #1 in the world now where WOM spreads quickly, thanks to Wechat/QQ etc, BO performance took a dive even on Sat and Sun, and certainly in the second week, thus the BO performance came far short of initial expectation, i.e aweful legs.

 

4) This would/will greatly affect BO performace of the sequels, TLJ for TFA, and BP2 for BP.

 

However, I don't think BP2 will be as dismal as TLJ (USD 42m). I think BP2 will drop about 20% in BO from BP, but it can still do above USD 90m, because (1) SH movies are much better received than SW in China/(ex-Japan)East Asia; (2) to even understand TLJ the audience need a good grasp of SW universe, while BP2 can be a rather self-contained movie.

The wom is similar to spider-man: homecoming. We can see what SM 2 does - BP  2 will drop a similar percentage or gross about the same amount as SM 2 in China. Spider man needed China more than black panther did. Im not too worried. It seems to be doing well internationally in most markets and the week-to-week holds in these markets show that there must be people going for multiple viewings. 

Edited March 11, 2018 by YLF

[XO21]

 

38 minutes ago, YLF said:

The wom is similar to spider-man: homecoming. We can see what SM 2 does - BP  2 will drop a similar percentage or gross about the same amount as SM 2 in China. Spider man needed China more than black panther did. Im not too worried. It seems to be doing well internationally in most markets and the week-to-week holds in these markets show that there must be people going for multiple viewings. 

Guardians 2 had a 9.0+ rating and it had terrible drops. It isn't just WOM, if the Marvel movies don't connect to a larger audience and play only to their fanbase it causes huge drops/bad multi. 

 

If only Marvel/CBM fans will show up to Spiderman: Homecoming sequel it'll top $100m again.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by XO21

[justvision]

4 hours ago, YLF said:

The wom is similar to spider-man: homecoming. We can see what SM 2 does - BP  2 will drop a similar percentage or gross about the same amount as SM 2 in China. Spider man needed China more than black panther did. Im not too worried. It seems to be doing well internationally in most markets and the week-to-week holds in these markets show that there must be people going for multiple viewings. 

1) BP pre-sale data outpaced SMH a lot, IIRC, at least 30%, but likely gross less than SMH in the end. This just supports my argument that BP had a lot of anticipation in China but underwhelm in the end.

 

2) Surely BP has performed extra-ordinarily well WW, but this is China Box Office thread, not BP appreciation thread. And my post was about China BO.

[fmpro]

Around 110 mill sunday

[bangbingchan]

6 hours ago, YLF said:

The wom is similar to spider-man: homecoming. We can see what SM 2 does - BP  2 will drop a similar percentage or gross about the same amount as SM 2 in China. Spider man needed China more than black panther did. Im not too worried. It seems to be doing well internationally in most markets and the week-to-week holds in these markets show that there must be people going for multiple viewings. 

BP WoM is worse than SMH.SMH is 7.4 on Douban.Bp is only 6.8.Spiderman is more popular among kids.SMH release date is too close to another $100M+ hit.It  was hit hard by Apes.That's Why SMH multiple is very low.BP don't have such competition.Bp is more similar to Marvel ver BvS in China.GA wasn't into this SH film much.Bp2 won't be next TLJ.But it won't increase much.

Edited March 11, 2018 by bangbingchan

[ZeeSoh]

BP finishes with about 110 for Sunday. A 35.3% drop from Saturday which is decent all things considered. 

 

Weekend total - 422 m OR 66.6m USD

 

A Spiderman like multi will get it to 110m final total. BP will need about 1.5x to get to 100 million. 

 

PS for tomorrow is at 5 million. Heading to about 20-25m tomorrow for a drop of about 75-82% which would be quite steep but expected

[commendable]

They need to release shawshank redemption in china

[Valonqar]

Fingers crossed it doesn't fall off the cliff so it manages $100M. 

 

Agreed that the sequel won't drop as hard as TLJ cause it's still SH genre and self-contained. 

[MrGlass2]

How is it looking like for Tomb Raider, have presales started? I see that it is doing well in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

[Premium George]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

How is it looking like for Tomb Raider, have presales started? I see that it is doing well in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Yes presales have started. It's currently outpacing Monster Hunter 3 by 10-15%.

[MrGlass2]

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

Yes presales have started. It's currently outpacing Monster Hunter 3 by 10-15%.

Worthless post.

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Worthless post.

As is yours.

[ZeeSoh]

15 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

How is it looking like for Tomb Raider, have presales started? I see that it is doing well in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Its at 1.57m PS for OD. I dont have any comparisions at this point.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Its at 1.57m PS for OD. I dont have any comparisions at this point.

Pacific Rim at 1.69m PS for OD, and it releases a week after Tomb Raider 

[YLF]

Heres a video where people interview chinese peoples response to black panther... obviously they could've selectively picked who they interviewed... but its still interesting.

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

This is probably an idiotic question, but do you guys think that Chinese audiences' distaste for BP could negatively influence the hype for IW over there, even if just a little bit? Especially if BP and Wakanda are heavily featured in the movie itself, like I presume they might.

[jiangsen]

2 hours ago, YLF said:

Heres a video where people interview chinese peoples response to black panther... obviously they could've selectively picked who they interviewed... but its still interesting.

 

 

Important to note, according to this Youtuber's profile, the video was taken in Beijing, a 1st tier international city where residents are probably exposed to diversity more than say a 5th tier city in Hubei. Basically this is the same as interviewing people in New York or LA about Call Me By Your Name vs. an audience in rural Mississippi. Also, the majority of interviewees look incredibly uncomfortable to be put on the spot, and Chinese people are notoriously reticent to express outright negative opinions in public.

Edited March 11, 2018 by jiangsen

[YLF]

21 minutes ago, jiangsen said:

Important to note, according to this Youtuber's profile, the video was taken in Beijing, a 1st tier international city where residents are probably exposed to diversity more than say a 5th tier city in Hubei. Basically this is the same as interviewing people in New York or LA about Call Me By Your Name vs. an audience in rural Mississippi. Also, the majority of interviewees look incredibly uncomfortable to be put on the spot, and Chinese people are notoriously reticent to express outright negative opinions in public.

That makes sense.

[bangbingchan]

6 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

This is probably an idiotic question, but do you guys think that Chinese audiences' distaste for BP could negatively influence the hype for IW over there, even if just a little bit? Especially if BP and Wakanda are heavily featured in the movie itself, like I presume they might.

Bp won't influence IW.Bp only effect its sequel.But it won't drop like TLJ.

Edited March 12, 2018 by bangbingchan