China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[peludo]

21 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Could you explain me something? According to Gavin Feng SM:H earned 41.5 in monday and had 501.1 in total, and in tuesday it was  33.5 and 535.3 in total. But 501.1+ 33.5 = 534.6 not 535.3 so i assume that after verification this movie earned slightly more in monday and this situation repeated in tuesday. So actual drops are better than this presented by Gavin. Am i right?

 

(Of course i'm not criticize Gavin excellent work for this forum)

He posts (pretty accurate) estimations. The total day data are not complete in that moment. Some theaters are accounted during upcoming days (if I am not wrong). Same happens in US: official data are not published until next morning.

Edited September 13, 2017 by peludo

[a2k]

$115-125m would 1.62-1.77x the $70.8m OW for SMH.

If Apes gonna have similar legs hopefully it can do $52.5m OW / 1.71x = $90m total at least.

 

(Using $52.5 cause it was POTUS's last estimate I think...$50-55m OW)

Edited September 13, 2017 by a2knet

[fmpro]

26 minutes ago, a2knet said:

$115-125m would 1.62-1.77x the $70.8m OW for SMH.

If Apes gonna have similar legs hopefully it can do $52.5m OW / 1.71x = $90m total at least.

 

(Using $52.5 cause it was POTUS's last estimate I think...$50-55m OW)

 

Looks like OD presales for Apes will land in the 25-26 mill area. 

90-95 mill OD and 325 mill OW is my best estimate right now

[John Marston]

that's the problem with China box office. When another blockbuster opens the previous one completely dies

[jiangsen]

2 hours ago, Diana Prince said:

So the number after the service fee is the true gross that counts toward revenue here in USA? Spider-Man is a monster. If it does 115, that is still excellent. I still hope for 140 for complete vindication for the movie. No matter what, it will probably end up in the top ten grossing movies of the year. 

Hollywood studios will report the "after service fee" gross because it's more eye-catching but they don't receive a penny of that, it all goes to third party ticketing apps in China. The true gross and the one to use as comparison is "before service fees" since they just started incorporating service fees this year. 

[fmpro]

Looks like 24-25 mill for SMH today

[peludo]

15 hours ago, Diana Prince said:

So the number after the service fee is the true gross that counts toward revenue here in USA? Spider-Man is a monster. If it does 115, that is still excellent. I still hope for 140 for complete vindication for the movie. No matter what, it will probably end up in the top ten grossing movies of the year. 

If you mean top 10 in China of the year that is impossible. The 12th film of the year is already Despicable me 3 with 1.038b Yuan ($158m with current ER). If it makes more than 758m Yuan (Buddies in India gross), what seems likely according what I am reading here, it will rank #13. But we are still in September. From now until the end of the year it will probably drop several spots in the yearly ranking.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

If you mean top 10 in China of the year that is impossible. The 12th film of the year is already Despicable me 3 with 1.038b Yuan ($158m with current ER). If it makes more than 758m Yuan (Buddies in India gross), what seems likely according what I am reading here, it will rank #13. But we are still in September. From now until the end of the year it will probably drop several spots in the yearly ranking.

I think he meant worldwide. 

[POTUS 2020]

16 hours ago, a2knet said:

$115-125m would 1.62-1.77x the $70.8m OW for SMH.

If Apes gonna have similar legs hopefully it can do $52.5m OW / 1.71x = $90m total at least.

 

(Using $52.5 cause it was POTUS's last estimate I think...$50-55m OW)

Apes wont have competition its second weekend, should hold better as long as its rating isnt under 8. 

 

SMH PS going to be down 30% for Friday

Might be 17-19m friday. 80m weekend -82%.  775m total $118m

 

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I think he meant worldwide. 

If he means worldwide, he should not be worried about that. It is making close to $900m, over Wolf Warrior 2 right now (we still have to see if WW2 can make more relevant business outside China). If it ranks #4 or #5 after September, I do not see 6 or 7 films from now until the end of the year that can make it miss top 10 of the year. Just for reference, Suicide Squad ranked #10 in 2016 and did $745m, way behind than SMH.

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

If he means worldwide, he should not be worried about that. It is making close to $900m, over Wolf Warrior 2 right now (we still have to see if WW2 can make more relevant business outside China). If it ranks #4 or #5 after September, I do not see 6 or 7 films from now until the end of the year that can make it miss top 10 of the year. Just for reference, Suicide Squad ranked #10 in 2016 and did $745m, way behind than SMH.

I'm curious about the Chinese gross of Thor: Ragnarok. Are the Chinese people familiar with Thor?

[peludo]

25 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I'm curious about the Chinese gross of Thor: Ragnarok. Are the Chinese people familiar with Thor?

The Dark World grossed 342m Yuan, a bit less than Man of Steel (394m) and less than half of Iron Man 3 (754m) if we talk about SH films in 2013. But this one has Hulk and Dr. Strange.... Maybe 600m (about 90m dollars) could be a good target for it. But there are people here who know the market way better than me. That is just my asumption.

[scabab]

Is this going to make enough to pass Spider-man 3 worldwide?

[Awesomer]

40 minutes ago, scabab said:

Is this going to make enough to pass Spider-man 3 worldwide?

I'm guessing it would need to make at least $131m in China.  From what it looks like people are saying in this thread, that seems doubtful.

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, scabab said:

Is this going to make enough to pass Spider-man 3 worldwide?

 

Slim chance at this point

[ZattMurdock]

On 13/09/2017 at 5:49 AM, POTUS said:

Its probably going to be in the $120m's

Lets see the friday number. 

 

 

@ChinaBoxOffice is saying $90m up until this Thursday. Do you really think Homecoming will gross only $30m more? 

[Gavin Feng]

Something wrong with official box office system.

 

War for the Planet midnight is over 9.2m, #3 import number in Sep behind SMH and MI5.

[Gavin Feng]

SMH 23.5-24m on THU. Over $90 MILLION 7-day total

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

SMH 23.5-24m on THU. Over $90 MILLION 7-day total

What's the multiplier should desirably have this Fri-Sun so it can break into $130m? 

[fmpro]

51 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

What's the multiplier should desirably have this Fri-Sun so it can break into $130m? 

Friday is looking to be down by 20-30% from thursday and that leaves SMH almost zero chance of 130 mill total

Breaks my heart but no way around that