China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Olive]

Saturday pace of FF8

F8                                 IW

10AM  186,07                 215,00

11AM  214,79                 
12PM  232,58               
1PM    261,38                          
2PM    288,42               
3PM    314,50             
4PM    338,76             
5PM    362,26             
6PM    385,93
7PM    415,87
8PM    432,17

9PM    444,66

10PM  456,66

[GOXOG]

8 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

Saturday pace of FF8

F8                                 IW

10AM  186,07                 215,00

11AM  214,79                 
12PM  232,58               
1PM    261,38                          
2PM    288,42               
3PM    314,50             
4PM    338,76             
5PM    362,26             
6PM    385,93
7PM    415,87
8PM    432,17

9PM    444,66

10PM  456,66

race starts 

[ZeeSoh]

As we saw yesterday IW was a bit slow at the beginning but then overtook FF8’s pace late afternoon/early evening. I wonder if we will see something similar today. For example, that jump for FF8 from 10 to 11 am of 28m is spectacular, I doubt IW will be able to match it. 

 

 

Also the mid point for FF8 was somewhere around 12:30ish. I think midpoint for IW may be around 1-1:30 or so

Edited May 12, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[Lordmandeep]

The record is 550 in lc for biggest day?

 

 

[bladels]

11am: 228.47M (+13.47M) if i'm seeing it right. Quite a low increase

[VanillaSkies]

Just now, bladels said:

11am: 228.47M (+13.47M) if i'm seeing it right. Quite a low increase

I mentioned this earlier as I've been following along the past few hours. IW was stuck at 215M for about 2 hours, and only started moving again around 10:20am, so I'm not confident that increase represents a full hour. Let's see what the update at 12pm looks like.

[bladels]

20 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I mentioned this earlier as I've been following along the past few hours. IW was stuck at 215M for about 2 hours, and only started moving again around 10:20am, so I'm not confident that increase represents a full hour. Let's see what the update at 12pm looks like.

It doesn't seem so hot this hour either, heading for 16-17M increase. It needs to accelerate faster if it doesn't want to trail behind F8

[jiangsen]

Another well-respected local tracking group predicting 490M for today, 1.28B for OW and 2.2B total. Makes some solid points for those who can’t read Chinese: today will likely be only day to outpace F8 before falling behind tomorrow and to a more significant degree next Monday-Thursday due to a more limited audience for sbh films than for FF films. 

 

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bSjs4DHHPp661hCGZAfWxA

[a2k]

6 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Saturday PS is upto 215 now. With FF8 multi that would mean 645m and over 100m usd the first ever single day gross for a movie if I am not wrong. 

 

But its not gonna have that multi coz rhat would mean a 65% rise over Friday and thats too much. But even with a low multi like 2.5 would give us 537 which would be a 37.69% rise over Friday. Tomorrow is looking good for now. 

 

PS is up 16% from yesterday and screen count is up 15k or about 8.2%. FF8’s PS decreased on Saturday and it still rose 17% so we should see at least a 25-30% rise and 500m gross. 

25% Sat bump would be great and locks $200

 

Using Thu/Fri from Feng, $9.4 + $61.9 + $77.4 (+25%) + $51.8 (-33.1%) = $200.5

[Gavin Feng]

8 hours ago, Quigley said:

Can someone give us a list of the 10 highest opening-day grosses?

 

with

TF5 - ￥289.6M / $42.37M

Us & Them - ￥285.6M / $45.09M

The Mermaid - ￥272.5M / $41.46M

Warcraft - ￥251.7M / $38.31M

[jiangsen]

2 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

25% Sat bump would be great and locks $200

 

Using Thu/Fri from Feng, $9.4 + $61.9 + $77.4 (+25%) + $51.8 (-33.1%) = $200.5

This looks exactly like what I just posted above. I think this is how it’ll pan out. 

[Fake]

1 hour ago, Proxima Olive said:

Saturday pace of FF8

F8                                 IW

10AM  186,07                 215,00

11AM  214,79                 
12PM  232,58               
1PM    261,38                          
2PM    288,42               
3PM    314,50             
4PM    338,76             
5PM    362,26             
6PM    385,93
7PM    415,87
8PM    432,17

9PM    444,66

10PM  456,66

FF8 added another 21M in morning till 10AM (its presales ended at 165M @3AM). IW was stuck at 215M as pointed out by VanillaSkies. What happened? 

[bladels]

12pm: 248.08M

19.61M increase vs 17.79M F8

It accelerated quite a bit in the last 10 minutes. Next hour is crucial, F8 had 28.8M increase, let's see if IW can match it.

Edited May 12, 2018 by bladels

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, Fake said:

FF8 added another 21M in morning till 10AM (its presales ended at 165M @3AM). IW was stuck at 215M as pointed out by VanillaSkies. What happened? 

I know cboo is usually high but right now it has 26462 with the film under  234 vs  Mayoans 235..

 

 

Anyhow it's picking up the pace on Mayoan,  Finished the 11-12 hour at 248.3  - for  19.83

[Fake]

FF8 vs IW

 

6AM-10AM: 21M vs 0M (???)

10AM-11AM: 28.7 vs 13.5M

11AM-12AM: 17.8 vs 19.6M

 

So basically till 11AM, FF8 added 50M since early morning while IW added only 14M. 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Fake

[TalismanRing]

Just did 6M  during 12-12:10 - for an early 36M per hour pace 

[Fake]

Picking some real pace now. 9.2M in 15 mins.

[bladels]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Just did 6M  during 12-12:10 - for an early 36M per hour pace 

Yes, it's accelerating really fast. It's 37.7M/h now

[jiangsen]

Actuals about 7M lower than yesterday’s estimates according to several trackers: 猫眼, 艺恩, 时光 and 中国电影票房 all reporting around 444M ($70M) including midnights. 

[Fake]

53 minutes ago, jiangsen said:

Another well-respected local tracking group predicting 490M for today, 1.28B for OW and 2.2B total. Makes some solid points for those who can’t read Chinese: today will likely be only day to outpace F8 before falling behind tomorrow and to a more significant degree next Monday-Thursday due to a more limited audience for sbh films than for FF films. 

 

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bSjs4DHHPp661hCGZAfWxA

I mostly agree... But i think the OW will be slightly higher at 1.34B... and multiplier will be a tiny bit higher for 2.4B finish.

Edited May 12, 2018 by Fake