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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted
On 11/15/2018 at 7:41 AM, fmpro said:

Thursday

 

22 mill at 2,30pm

Down 12%

 

Wedensday ended at 69 mill. Today should be in the 60-61 mill area

Friday

 

29 mill at 2,30pm

Up 32%

 

Thursday ended at 62 mill. Today should be in the 85-90 mill area with a little stronger evening. 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)

Tomb Raider could beat FB2 in China as 2018 WB films go.

 

I remember the approx USD totals,

RPO $222

Rampage $156

Meg $153

TR $79

 

$45 ow * 1.75x will take FB2 close to TR.

 

AQM to come soon.

 

Edit: I forgot Smallfoot. Don't recall what it did.

Edited by a2k
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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Not sure how to read it, what is the difference between the 2 FB2 mentioned is one a typo and referring to FB1 one score ? From different day or source ?

FB1 was 33.6， under 10 indicates mediocre WOM

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Olive said:

FB1 was 33.6， under 10 indicates mediocre WOM

Ok thanks, that what I suspected, so if under 10:1 is mediocre, an under 1 is disastrous I imagine.

 

Thats too bad, I thought that franchise could have had quite a good potential there and for the first one China was the biggest market after domestic, but if the movie rely into the old material I guess that make it hard on the new market.

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Brinatico said:

You going to tell me FB2 jus going to do 3-3.5 of PS.

TR do 5+ with a mere 8.2 rated

RP1 do 6+ with good Rated

Ramp. Do 7+ with normal rated

This 3 have something in common. 

You predicted low box office and you get wrong the 3 times by a lot.

I guess that the reason of that low multiplier is that FB is more fan-driven than Tomb Raider, RPO or Rampage. Presales for a Harry Potter film should always have more weight than those others films. And a 7.8 rating does not help.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, peludo said:

I guess that the reason of that low multiplier is that FB is more fan-driven than Tomb Raider, RPO or Rampage. Presales for a Harry Potter film should always have more weight than those others films. And a 7.8 rating does not help.

yeah, on top of that it's a sequel.

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Brinatico said:

You going to tell me FB2 jus going to do 3-3.5 of PS.

TR do 5+ with a mere 8.2 rated

RP1 do 6+ with good Rated

Ramp. Do 7+ with normal rated

This 3 have something in common. 

You predicted low box office and you get wrong the 3 times by a lot.

3 to 3.5x is the range for a majority of fan driven sequels. going with the odds. higher is always a nice surprise.  Expect to high and you bring doom upon yourself in this forum.

FB2 heading to 90m+.  A little over 3x PS

Vm tracking high 80s

 

I doubt FB2 bumps more than 20% tomorrow.  Vm wins the weekend $50m to 40m

48 minutes ago, peludo said:

I guess that the reason of that low multiplier is that FB is more fan-driven than Tomb Raider, RPO or Rampage. Presales for a Harry Potter film should always have more weight than those others films. And a 7.8 rating does not help.

yup

41 minutes ago, a2k said:

yeah, on top of that it's a sequel.

yup

Edited by POTUS
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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)

Venon Projection

Wk1   1068

Wk2     480  The weekend/week looking to be -55%.  Great hold these days

Wk3     240  -50% next week, could be -40% with little competition. 

Wk4       80  Several releases on the schedule it could lose a lot screens, but could get them back and score better than -66%

Wk5       15  Final weekend. No M-Th unless extended

Total   1883/$271m

 $280m total possible if it holds -40% next weekend and -60% the following weekend. Demand burn could kick in though since its beyond the limits of single CBMs

 

Edited by POTUS
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KP1025 Box Office Gold

KP1025

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Rogerio said:

What are the predctions for OW and final?

Looks like in the $40 million range. With a low Maoyan score, it's unlikely to have a good multiplier. I'm guessing maybe around $70-75 million total, down from the $86 million of the previous film. 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Looks like in the $40 million range. With a low Maoyan score, it's unlikely to have a good multiplier. I'm guessing maybe around $70-75 million total, down from the $86 million of the previous film. 

China will fall by $10-15, Japan should fall by $10 (every film since HP1 has fallen 15% except DH2) and South Korea Day 2 is well below FB1's Day 2 after a higher OD. On the flip side France and Netherlands have started much stronger than FB1. Would be unexpected if Europe holds better than Asia. USA/Can, Aus, NZ should show drops. Considering it could drop $45-50 dom, $725 is not locked.

 

EDIT: Agree with you @Rogerio

1 hour ago, Rogerio said:

I think you´re very optimistic..

don´t think it will go much higher than 650kk

USA - probably something like 170kk

OS - China - the first did 500kk, maybe this one 420kk

China - 70kk

 

660kk

or something like that 

 

Edited by a2k
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