China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, Bruce said:

TBALC 2 this year easily open ＄450m+，even more .

I think more like $500M OW. For all the TOP 10, will be equivalent to $1.2B or maybe $1.5B!!!!! 

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, LPLC said:

We will see that in 20 days 

 

Overcrowding or dividing GA will be a problem. But, there is only one film that can top Lunar Weekend. OMG!!! I am just more than happy 🎊

 

&I wish that we get our 1st $1B Film in single Market.

[XXR vs XXR]

Water Gate Bridge will do under $300M OW and under $700M China.

[Sophia Jane]

16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I think more like $500M OW. For all the TOP 10, will be equivalent to $1.2B or maybe $1.5B!!!!! 

＄1.5B is Impossible,＄1B is easily，＄1.2B is normal.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Bruce

[Sophia Jane]

Can't see How Dom cross ＄1.2B recent year

Except James Cameron make a new mircle as he always did.【Not must be Avatar Series,could be any movie which created by James Cameron,We all know he is a king of the world.】

Edited January 13, 2022 by Bruce

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Can't see How Dom cross ＄1.2B recent year

Except James Cameron make a new mircle as he always did.【Not must be Avatar Series,could be any movie which created by James Cameron,We all know he is a king of the world.】

Avatar Series will be the only movie series where each film gross more than $2B. JC is not just king but God of all directors !!!!

[Sophia Jane]

SW 7's all record is DOM single market will be crushed by TBALC 2,Avatar's weekend record in DOM(4th~7th) will be beaten by a Chinese film with Dangal,Zootopia level's hype.Titanic weekend record (8th－12nd）is impossible for Chinese film to beat it,it's too high,maybe never by broken by any movie.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Bruce

[Issac Newton]

We broke All-time highest grossing film in Mainland on November 2021. Now, we are going to break that record again in Spring Festival. Again, we are going to break OW record &all-time highest grossing film in Single Market. 2022 in Mainland is just more amazing &I can not explain with words 🤩🥳

[SchumacherFTW]

I love the overconfidence here. Opening weekend will be huge, but who's to say it won't fall on its face like Monster Hunt 2 or something? 

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I love the overconfidence here. Opening weekend will be huge, but who's to say it won't fall on its face like Monster Hunt 2 or something? 

I am thinking the same. I do not doubt about the potential of this sequel but I would not lock any number. The OW will probably be gigantic, but the same happened with DC3 last year, and it did not even win the CNY, but Hi, mom did. Let's wait to see the reception of the films released. There are always surprises along CNY period.

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

I am thinking the same. I do not doubt about the potential of this sequel but I would not lock any number. The OW will probably be gigantic, but the same happened with DC3 last year, and it did not even win the CNY, but Hi, mom did. Let's wait to see the reception of the films released. There are always surprises along CNY period.

No Country on earth has WOM hit harder, faster and more devastatingly than China

[Issac Newton]

Umm, WOM has affected DC3 (OW : $400M) which was unexpected. But, WaterGate Bridge is a film about Chinese History, so doubt if it's affected by WOM or factors coming from other prominent Films releasing in Spring Festival. But, just for now, we don't know how it will (because we haven't watched) Someone, once mentioned that Overcrowding &Divided GA might reduced Finals but OW will be bigger than TBALC. 

 

Even, if we don't compare individual films but overall TOP 10 of 2022 Spring Festival OW will be bigger than TOP 10 of 2021 Spring Festival OW.

 

Maoyan captured 340K anticipated Audience for WaterGate Bridge.

[Sophia Jane]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I love the overconfidence here. Opening weekend will be huge, but who's to say it won't fall on its face like Monster Hunt 2 or something? 

It is possible.

 

But you know ,TBALC is a national level film right now,many people see the movie not because they really like the movie,just because everyone watch the movie,if you don't see it,you have no topic to talking about other people during the movie released period....it's totally another level,kind like Titanic ,E.T,Frist Star Wars  phenomenon in DOM

 

A movie which everyone need to see it,not want to see it,That's the situation here in China.

 

My Grandfather(70+ years old) is not a big fan of movie,he has not been to cinema for more than 20 years,But when WW2 released in China,he soonly know WuJing is a superstar and watch WW2 with my grandmother,I asked him why you back to cinema again,he said that everybody talking about this movie,he must see it,or else he have no topic talking with his friends and neighbours.

 

That's the power of WuJing's  film,everyone watch it，a true national sensational

[Sophia Jane]

14 minutes ago, peludo said:

I am thinking the same. I do not doubt about the potential of this sequel but I would not lock any number. The OW will probably be gigantic, but the same happened with DC3 last year, and it did not even win the CNY, but Hi, mom did. Let's wait to see the reception of the films released. There are always surprises along CNY period.

DC3 and TBALC,WW2 have a big difference,WW2,TBALC is a national film,everyone know it and watch it,attracted people from all age and locations in China,DC3 is more like a young people's carnival,I can't call it as a national film,old people and Kid in China not even heard about what DC3 is,the audience is limited

Edited January 13, 2022 by Bruce

[SchumacherFTW]

12 minutes ago, Bruce said:

It is possible.

 

But you know ,TBALC is a national level film right now,many people see the movie not because they really like the movie,just because everyone watch the movie,if you don't see it,you have no topic to talking about other people during the movie released period....it's totally another level,kind like Titanic ,E.T,Frist Star Wars  phenomenon in DOM

 

A movie which everyone need to see it,not want to see it,That's the situation here in China.

 

My Grandfather(70+ years old) is not a big fan of movie,he has not been to cinema for more than 20 years,But when WW2 released in China,he soonly know WuJing is a superstar and watch WW2 with my grandmother,I asked him why you back to cinema again,he said that everybody talking about this movie,he must see it,or else he have no topic talking with his friends and neighbours.

 

That's the power of WuJing's  film,everyone watch it，a true national sensational

Totally understand what you're saying, but that only applies to the first movie right now. Obviously you can predict and project, but to say the sequel will be the biggest movie ever before any public screenings is a big statement. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Hmm. Expecting the biggest CNY film to do well. That's rookie mistake. 

 

Opening day runner up or 2nd runner up are what we need to look for.

Edited January 13, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Opening day runner up or 2nd runner up are what we need to look for.

You meant Only Fools Rush In &Nice view? Or just any film other than Water Gate Bridge, will win Lunar New Year.

[peludo]

42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm. Expecting the biggest CNY film to do well. That's rookie mistake. 

 

Opening day runner up or 2nd runner up are what we need to look for.

This. I have followed several CNY weeks and the film which was expected to be the biggest film of the week  has been surpassed by another film at the end. There are 2 obvious cases: Monster Hunt 2, which was widely outgrossed by Operation red sea and DC2 in 2018, and DC3, outgrossed by Hi, mom last year.

 

I do not doubt this can be a must see among Chinese people, but to asume the must see factor will be enough to make $900m again is risky.

 

Concerning Maoyan anticipated audience, the 340k figure of this sequel do not tell me too much. DC3, if I remember well, was over 1 million last year before release.

Edited January 13, 2022 by peludo

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, peludo said:

Concerning Maoyan anticipated audience, the 340k figure of this sequel do not tell me too much. DC3, if I remember well, was over 1 million last year before release.

I assume we need to wait for some more days to draw it's anticipation (so far it's 347K) I am afraid but let's just wait and watch. Like Last Year, where many assumed TBALC can not beat Wolf Warrior 2, I hope this time we do not need to overthinking. There are just lots of pros &cons where distinguishing which gonna work is just more than confusing.

[Sophia Jane]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

This. I have followed several CNY weeks and the film which was expected to be the biggest film of the week  has been surpassed by another film at the end. There are 2 obvious cases: Monster Hunt 2, which was widely outgrossed by Operation red sea and DC2 in 2018, and DC3, outgrossed by Hi, mom last year.

 

I do not doubt this can be a must see among Chinese people, but to asume the must see factor will be enough to make $900m again is risky.

 

Concerning Maoyan anticipated audience, the 340k figure of this sequel do not tell me too much. DC3, if I remember well, was over 1 million last year before release.

That's what I said the difference between TBALC and DC series,the former is attracted people from all age,most of old people and middle-aged people don't use Maoyan(They don't even know what it is),and kid don't use it either,That's why the "Want to See"data is lower than DC3,Actually,most movie's hype on Internet are far bigger than TBALC ,let alone DC3,because TBALC's audience is more broad-based, young people fever about the movie can't compare with DC series ,so the movie didn't get much hype on Internet,because the movie's phenomenon is appeared in the real life,DC series is a young people fever.

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Bruce