Estimated Wknd Numbers - BD2(141.3M) Skyfall(41.5M) Lincoln(21M)

[Gopher]

There's going to be a lot of talk here this weekend about BD2 "disappointing" so I want everyone to commit to saying that the box office is "disappointing EXPECTATIONS," which don't mean anything really. And it's still going to have an enormous opening and make a lot of revenue. But there is a question about these numbers... why is BD2 dipping now? Twilight is by far the most consistent franchise Hollywood has ever seen.

Are there people who still won't go to the movies after Aurora? That didn't stop Taken 2 and Skyfall from blowing up. Are people just sort of 'done' with Twilight now that The Hunger Games has dominated the cultural mindset? Possibly. I'm sure millions just saw this one out of obligation. Did people take the R-Patz/K-Stew breakup too seriously and refuse to see this movie out of protest? Who knows, man. Are legs/WOM going to make up for this opening in the long run? Nope, though late legs could be pretty good.

Any way you put it, Skyfall is making more than this now, which I consider perfect revenge for 2008.

Edited November 17, 2012 by Gopher

[A Marvel Fanboy]

So does this mean KS cheating RP disgusted Twilight fans ?

[Noctis]

If this ends up doing $125m, then you can definitely say the Hunger Games played a part in its disappointing performance. It took A LOT of the limelight away.

[kells]

I've seen that mentioned several times. I'm confused as to why that would have any negative impact. If anything, its free publicity; wouldn't that in fact help?

Ask J.Lo and Ben Affleck.There's any number of reasons it could have a negative impact. Oversaturation, aka the Gigli Affect. Or it could be that people find them less appealing as an idealized romantic couple knowing that their relationship is either fake or completely dysfunctional.Or it could just be Twilight fatigue. BD1 did worse than Eclipse, after all. Edited November 17, 2012 by kells

[Gopher]

Using that 66m number and BD1's holds 66m opening day (30.4m 10PM/12AM, 35.6m Friday) 33.8m Saturday (-5%) 22.3m Sunday (-34%) 122.1m weekendI don't understand this.

[Poseidon]

why is BD2 dipping now?

BD1 dipped by 20m, if BD2 opens to 130m it should lose another 20m, that's what i kind of expected in over the last few days.

As for the Aurora effect: IF there is any effect, I would assume, that movies dominated by a female audience should probably be affected more.

[Totem]

Predicted 133m/270m, hope it stays around those numbers, disappointing that the finale can't or might not be able to pass the first part of the series.

[Nasm99]

I think the fan base has been slowly eroding in NA. After 4 not very good movies I think the casual viewers are more reluctant to go see this one.

Edited November 17, 2012 by Nasm99

[Noctis]

baumer is probably punching his pillows right now.

[The Futurist]

Or maybe some Twihards realized they were way "too old for this shit".

[rainbowtrout]

The breakup might have had an impact because Twilight is really a very innocent love story and people saw the characters and real life romance as connected. Once the real life love story was shattered, I think some of the fun might have went out from watching them onscreen knowing what was going on offscreen.And the culture has gotten much sleazier since Twilight first became the big thing years ago. Now you have borderline porn being popular beach reading with Fifty Shades. Twilight movies might be too harmless for an audience that now wants bondage and stories of that ilk.

[sky]

Using that 66m number and BD1's holds66m opening day (30.4m 10PM/12AM, 35.6m Friday)33.8m Saturday (-5%)22.3m Sunday (-34%)122.1m weekendI don't understand this.

But your numbers do look like a fairly plausible result. Edited November 17, 2012 by sky

[Noctis]

After baumer was mercilessly predicting for DH2 to do as low as possible out of spite for the series and then hoped after its OW that it would hit a sub-2 multiplier...this is just too fucking good.DH2 > BD2RAWR!

[John Marston]

Maybe this very anti climactic sounding battle is turning casual fans away

[Mango]

I'd agree with those that say Hunger Games likely did take a lot of "the pop culture now" spotlight off of it.

[Jessie]

120m OW is amazing for a film as bad as this

[spizzer]

Using that 66m number and BD1's holds66m opening day (30.4m 10PM/12AM, 35.6m Friday)33.8m Saturday (-5%)22.3m Sunday (-34%)122.1m weekendI don't understand this.

Yeah, and from there, with BD1's legs (2.34 multiplier without midnights)214.6M + 30.4M 245.0M Total

[Gopher]

baumer is probably punching his pillows right now.

Here, I'll write his response for him-"you guys really have no idea. 120 million is 120 million PERIOD. it's a little below expectations but whatever. WoM is going to be great. lots of chatter coming out of the theater last night. could still hit 300 million because people will be talking about this for a while. it's going to do what DH2 never could and actually have legs. you guys were all defending TDKR when it opened and sucked. bias? "

[glassfairy]

Or maybe some Twihards realized they were way "too old for this shit".

And we have a winner. In general I never personally saw any real life hype for Twilight (and thank God for that because that would have been friendship ending shit) but I have noticed online a decrease in hype for each movie. And that's just what happens with a young fanbase. Tweens grow up and some of them grow out of things. Will Justin Bieber be selling the same in 5 years?

[Noctis]

Here, I'll write his response for him-"you guys really have no idea. 120 million is 120 million PERIOD. it's a little below expectations but whatever. WoM is going to be great. lots of chatter coming out of the theater last night. could still hit 300 million because people will be talking about this for a while. it's going to do what DH2 never could and actually have legs. you guys were all defending TDKR when it opened and sucked. bias? "

I wish I could sig all of this.