Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[John Marston]

It is also very possible that people are not interested in this as much as they were with LOTR movies. Given the lack of awards buzz and below average reviews, I don't see this displaying extraordinary legs that some are hoping for.

Reviews don't always correlate with what audiences feel

[Gopher]

On the Box Office Podcast last week we talked about this... there is indeed a cap to how a movie can open in December. Hobbit doesn't reach the cap though- Avatar and I Am Legend opened against massive snowstorms along the east coast and still sold more tickets than Hobbit OW. IAL considerably so.

[fishstick]

I think it's realistic now to suggest that Skyfall, Twilight and Hobbit will all end up with roughly the same # of admissions. Twilight might end up with more because of more kid/student tickets sold and no IMAX boost.

About time everyone, no matter what their ultimate franchise is, bow to Twilight. I certainly am. :worthy:

[jb007]

Reviews don't always correlate with what audiences feel

That is true in many cases. In this case, I would agree with the critics. Further, one of the selling points for the casual moviegoer was the high praise and supposed high quality of LOTR movies, which The Hobbit clearly lacks. Edited December 16, 2012 by jb007

[Fake]

BD2: 5.175M300M is very likely now.

[rb02]

Close enough....84.7...lolI find posts like this very myopic. Where were you 2 months ago or 2 weeks ago when people were saying this would open to 125-150 mill? Where were you 6-10 months ago when people said that if you predicted 300 mill that your box office skills were being called into question? Where were you 10 months ago when people said that this would easily hit 400 domestic and because films like MIB3 increased massively since the last one, this would more than likely do a billion overseas?Where were you?

To be honesti, I rarely even posted on the predictions thread for this particular movie and have little recollection as to what I predicted, if anything, much less what other people were predicting or their reactions to them. It looks like you're in position to serve some crow to those were making high predictions that didn't come to pass, and who ridiculed your own predictions. Great, but that has nothing to do with the fact that this movie is still going to make a shit-ton of money at the box office, and thus is far from a "bomb" or a "disaster".

[baumer]

Here is my brief analysis of The Hobbit. And this is not new, this is what I have been saying since the beginning. First, here is a post I made back in June in response to Shawn saying that for it to miss 400 is almost unthinkable:

ShawnMR, on 07 June 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

Those last two sentences are absolutely true. That said, this is still a pretty bold club. We're looking at three likely films hitting $400m this year before Hobbit even releases. Two of them without 3D (which Hobbit will have). For Hobbit to miss $400m after the past decade of anticipation and prior successes of the trilogy, something near-disastrous would have to happen (including but not limited to a VERY underwhelming movie).

Looking at it another way: To hit $400m, The Hobbit basically only has to sell a few more tickets than Kingdom of the Crystal Skull did. If one isn't willing to look at the admissions of even Fellowship of the Ring, I think the fourth Indy is a very fair comparison.

My response:

I'll preface this post first by saying that I know times have changed and this is not the 90's and Rocky and LOTR are different. But if you look at Rocky 1-4, they were huge. All hit 100 mill except 2 which hit 85 mill. They all sold more than 30 million tickets and they adjust to more than 250 mill each, with Rocky going well over 400 mill.

Then Rocky V comes out 12 years later and opens very well at 14 mill. From there it crashed and burned because people hated it. Same actors, same director as the first but Stallone changed what we loved about Rocky. The result was disastrous because the feel of the movie changed. It went on to have less than a 3 multiplier, which in 1990 was unheard of.

The point is obviously that if an audience doesn't connect with the film the way they did in the previous films, the film tanks. Is The Hobbit going to be another Rocky V? I don't know, maybe not but at this point you can't rule anything out. And because there are other films that have crashed and burned like Rocky V, calling my prediction stupid is stupid.

Rocky was one of the biggest franchises in the 70's and 80's. No franchise is immune to it.

END RANT

Now, what I witnessed with the marketing of this is that it tried to make it focus completely on the foolishness of the dwarves. Where as LOTR was about bravado and sword fights and battles and magic, the trailers made it look like the movie would concentrate on the dwarves being silly....then the poster comes out with a bunch of dwarves sitting there and one has cream pie on his face. This is the best they could come up with? A franchise about Aragorn and Legolas and Gimli and Gandalf and all the other brave ones, and they show a bunch of drunk on cake dwarves? What an absolutely ridiculous poster. Even the trailer ends with comedy as a giant beast comes crashing down on the dwarves.

Everything about the marketing in this film just looked off to me. And splitting it into three films....geeze...I'm usually not one to use this term, because I know all films are, but what a cash grab...what a fucking cash grab.

Then you have the animal deaths and put it all together and although this is going to do well, no doubt do well, it looks like it might make 800 mill instead of the 1.5-2 bill many thought.

Check out Shawn's 2012 preview...not to center him out, but his thoughts on the Hobbit echoed many others.

http://boxofficetheo...orecast-top-10/

I know this is going to do well, for sure it will, but I am glad to see it has been, at least so far, rejected on a massive level. Right now, it's just a good sized hit, which, to be honest, is what I thought it would be.

Edited December 16, 2012 by baumer

[fishstick]

Obviously majority of people who saw it this weekend were fans who saw LOTR in theaters as well.

Which explains Cinemascore`s A.

It is also very possible that people are not interested in this as much as they were with LOTR movies. Given the lack of awards buzz and below average reviews, I don't see this displaying extraordinary legs that some are hoping for.

I think you are onto something. Demo breakdown shows that OW was in fact driven by fans and that supposed GA-loving-this is really fans-loving-this.

[baumer]

To be honesti, I rarely even posted on the predictions thread for this particular movie and have little recollection as to what I predicted, if anything, much less what other people were predicting or their reactions to them. It looks like you're in position to serve some crow to those were making high predictions that didn't come to pass, and who ridiculed your own predictions. Great, but that has nothing to do with the fact that this movie is still going to make a shit-ton of money at the box office, and thus is far from a "bomb" or a "disaster".

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think this is doing well. My point is though that when I predicted a billion for it, I thought that was a good prediction and a shit load of money. Others felt I and others were off our rocker for thinking it would do such a paultry 1 billion.

[keysersoze123]

with japan losin 80% of ROTK gross(plus it will be lower in UK/Germany/France etc), I am not convinced about it hitting 1B WW. it might squeak through if it over performs in Russia/China but I am not too optimistic about that.At least compared to Japan its a blockbuster opening here in US. In Japan its going to end lower than Skyfall !!!!!!!!!!!!! ROTK almost grossed 100M in japan 9 years back.

[baumer]

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$84,775,000	--	4,045	--	$20,958	$84,775,000	1	Warner Bros. / New Line
2	Lincoln	$7,244,000	-19%	2,285	271	$3,170	$107,898,187	6	Disney / DreamWorks
3	Life of Pi	$5,400,000	-35%	2,548	-398	$2,119	$69,559,406	4	Fox
4	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2	$5,175,000	-43%	3,042	-604	$1,701	$276,865,069	5	Lionsgate / Summit
5	Wreck-It Ralph	$3,273,000	-33%	2,249	-497	$1,455	$168,778,549	7	Disney
6	Playing For Keeps (2012)	$3,247,000	-44%	2,840	3	$1,143	$10,838,092	2	FilmDistrict
7	Red Dawn (2012)	$2,394,000	-43%	2,250	-504	$1,064	$40,889,423	4	FilmDistrict
8	Killing Them Softly	$1,000,000	-64%	1,427	-997	$701	$14,132,305	3	Weinstein Company

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Silver Linings Playbook	$2,084,000	-4%	371	0	$5,617	$16,954,049	5	Weinstein Company
2	Argo	$1,145,000	-23%	667	-277	$1,717	$104,929,904	10	Warner Bros.
3	Hitchcock	$1,085,000	52%	561	380	$1,934	$3,049,212	4	Fox Searchlight
4	Anna Karenina (2012)	$998,103	-35%	409	-13	$2,440	$8,356,406	5	Focus
5	Taken 2	$290,000	-25%	339	-91	$855	$138,133,721	11	Fox
6	Pitch Perfect	$236,000	-23%	332	-55	$711	$63,859,743	12	Universal
7	The Sessions	$148,000	-32%	151	-46	$980	$5,209,051	9	Fox Searchlight
8	The Perks of Being A Wallflower	$78,000	-44%	125	-50	$624	$16,998,554	13	Lionsgate / Summit
9	Alex Cross	$73,000	-36%	175	-39	$417	$25,738,980	9	Lionsgate / Summit
10	Sinister	$72,000	97%	184	107	$391	$47,912,066	10	Lionsgate / Summit
11	The Man With the Iron Fists	$38,000	-56%	105	-76	$362	$15,607,165	7	Universal

 

[Fake]

Why is Skyfall number always last to come?

[baumer]

[Fake]

Nevermind.... Skyfall: 7M (-35%)300M is locked.

Edited December 16, 2012 by Fake

[keysersoze123]

after a crappy start, guardian is showing excellent legs. it should make 120M which is not bad considering its awful opening.

[jb007]

I think you are onto something. Demo breakdown shows that OW was in fact driven by fans and that supposed GA-loving-this is really fans-loving-this.

While it may display decent to good legs due to the holiday period, the general lack of interest in this movie and the average quality of the movie itself will ensure that this will not a mega performer.

Given that the last LOTR movie made $1.1B, 9 years ago, this movie should have been a mini TPM in its opening reception. The anticipation and interest have just not been there. It is not just the US, the lowered interest theme is being displayed all over the globe.

[Elessar]

And this.... this is why movies don't open to 100m in December.

So you are saying BD2 would not have opened to $100m on this weekend? I say it would, more, $120m at least. Edited December 16, 2012 by Elessar

[baumer]

NM made another 22 mill from here out, but BD2 is now out pacing it, so I think it might end up just north of Eclipse.

[rockNrollaDIM]

LOL WOW.That's just downright bad for The Hobbit.

[Fake]

So you are saying BD2 would not have opened to $100m on this weekend? I say it would, more, $120m at least.

Twilight is different. Also finales are different. ROTK would have easily opened with 100m+ if it had a 3-day release 10 years ago.I am not saying 100m is impossible...... it is possible.... for movies which have Must-See-ASAP-factor.TH1 doesn't qualify.