Thursday Numbers:TH1 $10.6m,Les Mis $9.4m,DU $8.7m....

[baumer]

Why do you have to point that out? It's not like we don't know. It seems you don't know that it doesn't need FOTR legs to hit $300m.Mind you, i'm not in the $300m lock camp yet.

I'm not pooping on Hobbit, I think I've been one of the more realistic posters about it since the beginning. I simply stating that for it to hit 300 (and it has a good chance to do so) it will need some very good holds in the coming weeks. It still has the MLK holiday but then it loses IMAX on Jan 25th. So I think it will be close, very close, but it might pull a BD2 and fade out near the end.

[4815162342]

It's not going to have FOTR's holds in the coming weeks.

It doesn't need to, it only needs to run ahead of I am Legend in week-to-week holds since Legend adjusted comes to 292 million.Plus it's running 1 million ahead of FOTR currently date-to-date (Wed to Wed) but FOTR had a 2-day advantage. If you line it up by day to day (13 days against 13 days) instead it's a 16 million advantage. Edited December 28, 2012 by 4815162342

[Jack Sparrow]

I think it will hold well after the Holidays.Still the movie to see and I don't think Les Mis and DU will do much after the Holidays.

Absolutely and then again as I pointed before it does not NEED to be the must see movie. It was not the case for IAL and that still made $50m post Jan 1st. Hobbit is doing much bigger numbers than that and would need $60m or a little more.

[baumer]

It doesn't need to, it only needs to run ahead of I am Legend in week-to-week holds since Legend adjusted comes to 292 million.Plus it's running 1 million ahead of FOTR currently date-to-date but FOTR had a 2-day advantage. If you line it up by day to day instead it's a 16 million advantage.

I'm just saying that IT IS NOT LOCKED. I didn't say it would absolutely not get there. At the beginning of the year 400 was ostensibly locked too. It doesn't matter what its doing right now, it only matters what it does in the future and because the future is not clear, then 300 is not locked. See?

[BenedictL11]

That could be true but it attracts a crowd that is more frontloaded. If it gets a LOT of Oscar boost then maybe but as of now I don't see that.

I'm thinking it can still finish with at least $150M domestically. How much do you think in total it will make domestically?

[Jack Sparrow]

I'm thinking it can still finish with at least $150M domestically. How much do you think in total it will make domestically?

Close by I am thinking $135m which would be GREAT imo. It could get $150m but I think that will happen IF Hatheway's potential Oscar gives the movie a boost post Oscar (and then the movie makes $140m+ total pre-Oscars)

[IndustriousAngel]

sorry bad table :/

Edited December 28, 2012 by IndustriousAngel

[4815162342]

The next big weekend for The Hobbit is January 11-13. FOTR, NT2, and I am Legend all dropped 40-43% on the January 4-6 weekend so it would make sense for Hobbit to have a similar drop.But on the 11-13 weekend FOTR dropped 29.6% while NT2 dropped 43.7% and Legend dropped 48.0%. It's very unlikely Hobbit would match FOTR's drop but a drop at least as good as NT2's would keep it relatively on pace for 300m minimum.

[Jack Sparrow]

I'm just saying that IT IS NOT LOCKED. I didn't say it would absolutely not get there. At the beginning of the year 400 was ostensibly locked too. It doesn't matter what its doing right now, it only matters what it does in the future and because the future is not clear, then 300 is not locked. See?

Yep that is true but in that sense it won't be a lock at $299.99m as well

[druv10]

TH, at 300m, is still loosing 33% of its attendance next to FOTR.TH bo run disapointment is a lock.

You're acting like I'm jumping for joy with it's performance. Where it was few days ago, it has made a nice little comeback. Edited December 28, 2012 by druv10

[Lordmandeep]

Its at 190 million and it should get around 30-35 million this weekend.220-225 million totalAbout 15 million between 31 st and New years day = 235-240 million40% drop on the 4th weekend and 6 million between the two weekdays and you have about 260 million+ by Jan 6th.I think it will get 40 million with ease after that.

Edited December 28, 2012 by Lordmandeep

[Jack Sparrow]

Just as a reminder: LotR vs. Hobbit, aligned for date - which makes sense as it's really about the holidays, not days in release:

Those are fairly good comparisons but you have to agree that TH will not have better holds than the original trilogy after holidays. It will be older and and LOTR movies and the Oscar buzz would be substantially lower which won't help its late legs.

[IndustriousAngel]

[IndustriousAngel]

Those are fairly good comparisons but you have to agree that TH will not have better holds than the original trilogy after holidays. It will be older and and LOTR movies and the Oscar buzz would be substantially lower which won't help its late legs.

Yep, that's true, but until January 7 my table should be ok. And if you look at it, you'll see that the numbers follow "FotR" better than anything else, just a little behind - but with 70mil headstart due to earlier release. I guess this earlier release will cut admissions once holidays are over, but atm it's a much better comparison than every other film.

[druv10]

Yep, that's true, but until January 7 my table should be ok. And if you look at it, you'll see that the numbers follow "FotR" better than anything else, just a little behind - but with 70mil headstart due to earlier release. I guess this earlier release will cut admissions once holidays are over, but atm it's a much better comparison than every other film.

It's following relatively close to FOTR so it's much better comparison than IAL or NT2 that some are using.

[Jack Sparrow]

Yep, that's true, but until January 7 my table should be ok. And if you look at it, you'll see that the numbers follow "FotR" better than anything else, just a little behind - but with 70mil headstart due to earlier release. I guess this earlier release will cut admissions once holidays are over, but atm it's a much better comparison than every other film.

True. Absolutely loved those charts, not very different from BOM but they are still completely different :thumbsup:TH should easily get to $300m all the things are pointing to that but some people are either just ignoring the fact or are not able to accept :PThere is no way it crashes and burns more than IAL when1. IAL had much more competition2. IAL wasn't ever mentioned for Oscars (even though TH might not be there in big ones there are still some technical awards it might win)$300m is still a big drop in admissions but it will still be a passable number for a prequel IMO and Middle-Earth will become the first franchise that will have 6 movies over $300m (UNADJUSTED...please don't burn me for that).

[Lordmandeep]

It will be around 260 million by end of its 4th weekend, how does it miss 300 million?

[fishstick]

$300m is still a big drop in admissions but it will still be a passable number for a prequel IMO and Middle-Earth will become the first franchise that will have 6 movies over $300m (UNADJUSTED...please don't burn me for that).

Well, considering that POTC couldn`t even muster $250 mio despite 3D this is good.

[John Marston]

Good number for Hobbit and 300m is totally on the cards. Don't know why there is still so much pessimism now

Edited December 28, 2012 by John Marston

[CJohn]

Meh Thursday numbers.