2013 Best Picture Thread

[Impact]

So what will have the most noms you guys think? (I'll start a thread for that probably next month)

[CoolioD1]

So what will have the most noms you guys think? (I'll start a thread for that probably next month)

12 Nominations A Slave imo.

[Jake Gittes]

Almost certainly 12YAS. Maybe American Hustle if it's a big hit with everybody and consequently gets all nominations it can realistically get (BP, BD, Screenplay, two or three acting nods, Production and Costume Design, Make-Up, Editing - there you've already got ten). Even then, 12YAS is likely to receive all those noms plus Cinematography and Score, which AH will probably miss out on.

 

I think Gravity will get BP, BD, Actress plus five technical noms (Cinematography, VFX, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing) and also probably Screenplay and Score, so from 8 to 10. 

[The Dark Alfred]

I think it's between Slave and Gravity. The only other threat could be AH. Captain Phillips is great, but it's best chance is probably Hanks, the Danish film with the same subject A Hijacking was better. Saving Mr. Banks was great, but it's a nice little Christmas story, not a a BP contender. It's a tearjerker though. I'd like to see Nebraska generating some decent buzz.

[Impact]

I think Book Thief will get nominated-I mentioned that earlier.

[Impact]

Based off recent years-at least one nomination will be in France.

[Impact]

BTW-the every other year a film features Clooney gets nomination stays true this year unless if Gravity is somehow not nominated.

[Films]

Early predictions [now new ones 3 weeks later]Gravity and twelve years a slave are complete locks, I also think saving mr banks, Captain Philips and American hustle are all in. Then in my view, there are many films vying for the final four spots. One or two spots will go to big releases. In my view this category contains August: Osage County, Out of the furnace [very unlikely], The Butler, Prisoners [very unlikely], Wolf of Wall Street (if it gets released) and Monuments Men. The other two or three spots will go to more limited films. This includes Her, Dallas Buyers Club, Blue Jasmine, Inside Llywen Davies, Before Midnight [very unlikely], Philomena and NebraskaMy predictionsGRAVITYTWELVE YEARS A SLAVESAVING MR BANKSINSIDE LLYWEN DAVISAMERICAN HUSTLECAPTAIN PHILIPSTHE WOLF OF WALL STREET

HERBLUE JASMINEThe Butler, August: Osage County and Philomena are just missing out at the moment

[TLK]

I think Book Thief will get nominated-I mentioned that earlier.

 

I agree. The movie may be flying under the radar but it will do well with the AMPAS members.

[Webslinger]

At this point, I'm thinking...

 

Locks

12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, and Gravity are done deals. 12 Years a Slave is the overall frontrunner at this point, given the historical significance of the subject it explores. There has been much made of the brutality of the film, but I get the sense that voters will ultimately bring themselves to stomach it because of the hype that is driving it. Captain Phillips is also in, and I think it's more of a threat to win than most people realize at this point. The reviews were great, it has been a hit with the public, there's a huge star turn to build around, there aren't any major genre bias issues at hand (like last year's winner, it's more of a drama/thriller than an action movie), and it has true story subject matter that will be easier to stomach than that of 12 Years a Slave. Moreover, the fact that reviews were merely great rather than absolutely rapturous makes a hype backlash less likely. I'm not saying it will win, but I wouldn't be that surprised if it's the one to beat come January. And then there's Gravity, which I fully expect will be nominated behind the strength of reviews, incredible box office, and additional "serious" credit from the fact that it has a lead performance that is highly likely to also be nominated (if not guaranteed). However, I would be quite surprised if Gravity actually won Best Picture. I think genre bias will ultimately prove too strong for it to triumph.

 

Potential Game-Changers

Saving Mr. Banks and the as-of-yet unscreened American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street fit this category to a "T." Saving Mr. Banks appears to have all the makings of a highbrow film that has serious subject matter, yet also pleases mainstream audiences immensely (not unlike The Blind Side or The Help, both of which broke through here). Reviews won't be out of this world if the first batch of professional opinions is an accurate indication of the bigger picture, but if it can scrape by with enough positive notices and tug at enough heartstrings, it should find its way in. American Hustle is a wild card simply for the fact that we haven't heard any opinions on it yet. David O. Russell is on a hell of a roll since The Fighter, but he's not immune to making something too divisive to register (see: I Heart Huckabees). That being said, I definitely expect American Hustle to be in the running unless the movie is not up at the level where the trailers suggest it will be. And then there's The Wolf of Wall Street, which returns to the land of the Oscar contender living after it appeared that the film would have to wait for 2014. I guess one can never count Scorsese out, but is this a Hugo that arrives relatively late and gets a lot of love, or a Shutter Island that is noted more for its commercial performance than its prospects as an Oscar contender?

 

I Guess They Sound Like Good Bets

- The Butler was a big commercial hit, it's bound to have at least one performer in very serious pursuit of the gold, and its takes on the Civil Rights Movement and racism are straightforward and easy to swallow. (It's still really ironic that the son complains about Sidney Poitier starring in movies about race that are comfortable for white people when The Butler is... well... a movie about race that is really comfortable for white people.)

- Inside Llewyn Davis is a Coen Brothers movie. They made it in for A Serious Man even though that film didn't gain traction anywhere else besides screenwriting. With the fan base they have developed in the Academy, it's very reasonable that they could get enough #1 votes to break through again.

- Nebraska: See my statement on Inside Llewyn Davis, but substitute Alexander Payne for the Coens. It's not going to be commercial at all, but Payne's name has a great deal of pull. How else to explain consecutive nominations for low-key dramadies? (That feat is especially significant given that those nominations happened seven years apart.)

 

Question Marks Abound

- Her: Looks very, very intriguing, but is the Academy still into Spike Jonze's style? That bit to some extent with his Charlie Kaufman collaborations, but they didn't go for Where the Wild Things Are. Will it get enough passion votes, or will it be too weird for too many voters?

- Dallas Buyers Club: Just the McConaughey/Leto show?

- August: Osage County: Just the absurdly talented actors' show? Is the revised ending an improvement, or an example of a punch pulled?

- Blue Is the Warmest Color: Will the controversy work to its advantage? Will passion votes come into play? Will many voters even bother with a 3-hour, NC-17 French drama about lesbians? (I will, but I don't have AMPAS membership, so there ya go.)

- Blue Jasmine: How much do they love Woody Allen? Will the buzz surrounding Cate Blanchett be enough to overcome the fact that it didn't break through as forcefully/noticeably as Midnight in Paris did two years ago?

- Rush: Is it going to be remembered at the end of the year? If so, is there really enough passion? It felt like critics and awards bodies were much more excited about Frost/Nixon.

- Fruitvale Station: Can they recover the mostly faded buzz? Is the Academy at large in the mood for another movie with issues surrounding race relations? In particular, are they in the mood for a very small movie whose impact didn't reach nearly as wide as 12 Years a Slave or The Butler?

- The Book Thief: Legit contender? Almost everyone I know who has read the book loved it (and as an English teacher, that's an awful lot of people - colleagues and students alike), but the buzz feels almost non-existent. Unless a major shift comes into play, the best comparison appears to be The Kite Runner, which also became a quick contemporary reading staple, yet came and went at the box office and made barely a peep on the awards circuit.

- Before Midnight: Did the fans of the films grow in number since the surprise screenwriting nomination for Sunset nine years ago? (Okay, I concede that this one is an enormous longshot, but it's quite November yet, so I feel as though I can still dream that a "trilogy recognition" nomination is possible.)

 

And I'm probably also missing a few other possibilities here and there.

[stripe]

Great analysis webslinger! Only one movie to add. Philomena's chances are very strong

[riczhang]

Philomena is going to make it big. It's funny, it's witty, it's charming, and it's British. And it's got a suitably grave subject area, but very successfully is facetious about it. It's gonna be huge. 

[Michael Gary Scott]

Philomena is going to make it big. It's funny, it's witty, it's charming, and it's British. And it's got a suitably grave subject area, but very successfully is facetious about it. It's gonna be huge.

what is it about all I know about it is judi dench is in it

[4815162342]

Judi Dench plays an old woman who was forced to give her child up for adoption decades ago right after birth and she goes on a journey to the U.S. to find him. Something like that.

[riczhang]

Judi Dench plays an old woman who was forced to give her child up for adoption decades ago right after birth and she goes on a journey to the U.S. to find him. Something like that.

 

Basically this. She had to give up her child to a Catholic Nunnery, and was forced to join the convent. Then she goes on a journey with a disgraced Labour advisor decades later to find her son. They eventually journey to the states and find out who her son is, but there are a few twists on the way. Ends with forgiveness (duh ) and full circle. It's actually surprisingly emotional, especially the ending, imo. 

 

 

Also based on a true story. 

Edited October 29, 2013 by riczhang

[The Futurist]

It s all bout Gravity and 12 years.

 

Other movies won't make a blip on any radar.

 

Even with the Wolf involved.

 

And I think Harvey is gonna have a terrible year, his roaster is weak.

Edited October 29, 2013 by The Futurist

[stripe]

Sorry, but Gravity won't win the BP Oscar. And Harvey has two solid films in contention

 

Basically this. She had to give up her child to a Catholic Nunnery, and was forced to join the convent. Then she goes on a journey with a disgraced Labour advisor decades later to find her son. They eventually journey to the states and find out who her son is, but there are a few twists on the way. Ends with forgiveness (duh ) and full circle. It's actually surprisingly emotional, especially the ending, imo. 

 

 

Also based on a true story. 

 

 

it screems Oscars

Edited October 29, 2013 by stripe

[CoolioD1]

Philomena comes out here on Friday and I've been debating going to see it. I like to keep up w/ the Oscar films but man, I can't stand that trailer.

[ChD]

Philomena comes out here on Friday and I've been debating going to see it. I like to keep up w/ the Oscar films but man, I can't stand that trailer.

 

I just watched the trailer for the first time. Actually, not even the full trailer - only half of it. I know for sure this won't be an Oscar film.

[Jake Gittes]

Never watched the trailer, but it's got the subject matter, it's got the director, it's got the cast, it's got Harvey, it's got early critical raves, it's got the Best Screenplay award from Venice, and it's got the crowdpleasing thing going as well. OK, I'm not gonna go all Ric and claim that it's a LOCK for nominations, goddammit!, but honestly, I'd be seriously surprised if it somehow missed Picture, Actress, and Screenplay.