Weekend Estimates (Identity Thief: $36.6M, Warm Bodies $11.5M, Side Effects: $10M)

[Shawn Robbins]

Hobbit will be sticking around for awhile, WB will make sure it crosses $300 million. They have an opportunity for helping it in a few weeks when Jack releases. Then, of course, the Blu-ray comes out a month from now.

[fishstick]

Hobbit will be sticking around for awhile, WB will make sure it crosses $300 million. They have an opportunity for helping it in a few weeks when Jack releases. Then, of course, the Blu-ray comes out a month from now.

 

In short, fudge. They can keep it around as much as they want, it made way less than FOTR despite enormous advantages.

[fishstick]

Oh relax....people can dislike Floppit.  

 

       

[Gopher]

Hobbit didn't hold nearly as well as I would have expected it to in January. I thought a month of no kids films meant it would cruise by 300m.

[Shawn Robbins]

Oh relax....people can dislike Floppit.  

 

That has to be one of the most ridiculous terms ever adopted on the forums.

Edited February 10, 2013 by ShawnMR

[John Marston]

Hobbit can pass 300m next week

[Shawn Robbins]

Hobbit can pass 300m next week

 

Yeah, there's no fudging necessary to get it there. This ain't Superman Returns or Terminator Salvation.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Families are desparate for something to see now. Hell, I saw children going to see Warm Bodies yesterday. As lame as it looks, I'm beginning to wonder if Escape From Planet Earth can be a mini-break out.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Spaghetti

[Elessar]

No, you shut up. You didn`t even like TH so defending it and rooting for its BO is ridic.

 

There's a difference between being disappointed and not liking it.

[Shawn Robbins]

Families are desparate for something to see now. Hell, I saw children going to see Warm Bodies yesterday. As lame as it looks, I'm beginning to wonder if Escape From Planet Earth can be a mini-break out.

 

Quite possible. I think it's good news for Oz in the long run. Definitely starting to think $200m isn't an unrealistic goal for that one next month.

[4815162342]

Hobbit didn't hold nearly as well as I would have expected it to in January. I thought a month of no kids films meant it would cruise by 300m.

Yeah it had some fairly bad weekends in January (1/11-13 particularly) that slammed its potential to match FOTR/SS unadjusted. Still might eke to 305m with dollar theaters, but 302-303 is most likely.

 

Cruised by the first two LOTR films though WW so overseas for it is as strong as ever.

Edited February 10, 2013 by 4815162342

[John Marston]

Yeah it had some fairly bad weekends in January (1/11-13 particularly) that slammed its potential to match FOTR/SS unadjusted. Still might eke to 305m with dollar theaters, but 302-303 is most likely.

 

Cruised by the first two LOTR films though WW so overseas for it is as strong as ever.

 

 

for some reason Hobbit kept having shitty Friday increases, extremely strong Saturdays, but then big drops on Sundays (likely due to football). I don't understand the shitty Friday increases those first two or three weeks

[wileECoyote]

For all the people raving about the drops/holds from last weekend, you seem to be forgetting that LAST WEEKEND WAS THE SUPER BOWL. According to BOM, the weekend after last year's Super Bowl went up 80%. This weekend is projected to go up closer to 30%. So nothing to get super excited about.

That was with 4 pretty big releases though. The Vow, Safehouse, journey 2 and TPM 3D. Average drop of the top 10 hold overs last year was about 41%. This year it's about 28%. Of course the holdovers this year held better because only IT broke out, but the holds did did well regardless.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Am I the only one who noticed that BOM accidentally gave the same Sat/Sun numbers to Argo and Bullet To The Head?

[Shawn Robbins]

for some reason Hobbit kept having shitty Friday increases, extremely strong Saturdays, but then big drops on Sundays (likely due to football). I don't understand the shitty Friday increases those first two or three weeks

 

Based on past performers, I think that mostly speaks toward how families have been driving the film (why Saturdays are so big) and how individuals/young adults didn't as much as expected (why Friday jumps were lower). But we already had a good idea of that in December.

[John Marston]

Based on past performers, I think that mostly speaks toward how families have been driving the film (why Saturdays are so big) and how individuals/young adults didn't as much as expected (why Friday jumps were lower). But we already had a good idea of that in December.

 

 

oh really, I assumed family business was the weakest for the film, (mainly due to long length)

[4815162342]

Based on past performers, I think that mostly speaks toward how families have been driving the film (why Saturdays are so big) and how individuals/young adults didn't as much as expected (why Friday jumps were lower). But we already had a good idea of that in December.

It was still shocking just how aberrant Hobbit did compared to similar blockbusters on the same dates.

[fishstick]

Yeah it had some fairly bad weekends in January (1/11-13 particularly) that slammed its potential to match FOTR/SS unadjusted. Still might eke to 305m with dollar theaters, but 302-303 is most likely.

 

Cruised by the first two LOTR films though WW so overseas for it is as strong as ever.

 

First two didn`t have markets that TH has now nor they had 3D. Nice try to spin this underperformer.

[Shawn Robbins]

oh really, I assumed family business was the weakest for the film, (mainly due to long length)

 

The length probably does have its downsides, but a lot of family friendly movies are long (Potter, Avatar, LOTR itself). I think if it were the weakest demo, we wouldn't have been seeing big Saturday jumps. That's the biggest movie-going day for families.

[Shawn Robbins]

It was still shocking just how aberrant Hobbit did compared to similar blockbusters on the same dates.

 

Agreed. I think that just goes to show how much it leaned on family crowds. Most similar blockbusters on the same dates didn't rely on them for as much support (since they had strong appeal with other crowds).