The Summer Game 2017 | Beans have been counted, sprouts measured, zombies destroyed, and Tele relegated to... oh wait better not... | Let the Pre-Season Reveals begin ...

[dxmatrixdt]

7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOTM 2:

 

Multis with some forecasting:

 

Wonder Woman: Worst case scenario is it finishes with 380M. 380-206.6=173.4. Divide that by 58.5M and you get 2.96x. If it hits 400M, it'll be 3.31x.

Mummy: Let's say it finishes with 82M. That gets it a 2.59x.

Captain Underpants: With the TC drop it's having this weekend, it has 2-3M max left in the tank, so let's go with 73M. That translates to a 2.34x.

POTC: Let's stay pessimistic and say it finishes at 172M. That means a 3.38x.

GOTG: Being pessimistic again, let's say it tops out at 388M. It would be a 3.43x.

ICAN: It's multi is basically 2.33x.

Baywatch: It's done making anything substantial. If it finishes at 59M, that means a 1.72x.

Megan Leavey: Let's say it gets to 13M. That means a 3.42x. Worst case scenario is it crumbles and finishes at 12.5M. That would be 3.29x.

 

GOTG is safe regardless. It's all a matter of which 2 of WW, POTC, and Megan round it out.

 

I think you forgot to subtract the current gross from Megan Leavy at that time.  Assume it gets to 13,000,000. 

 

8 Megan Leavey $3,810,867 $3,810,867

 

[(13,000,000) - (3,810,867)]/(3,810867) = 2.41

 

Wonder Woman:

1 Wonder Woman $58,520,672 ...$206.646,175

(400,000,000 - 206,646,175) / (58,520,672) = 3.30

 

GOTG:

5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $6,312,367 $366,431,539

(390,000,000 - 366,431,539) / (6,312,367) = 3.73

 

POTC:

4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $10,704,103 $135,830,397

 

(172,000,000 - 135,830,397) / (10,704,103) = 3.38

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

 

I think you forgot to subtract the current gross from Megan Leavy at that time.  Assume it gets to 13,000,000. 

 

8 Megan Leavey $3,810,867 $3,810,867

 

[(13,000,000) - (3,810,867)]/(3,810867) = 2.41

 

Wonder Woman:

1 Wonder Woman $58,520,672 ...$206.646,175

(400,000,000 - 206,646,175) / (58,520,672) = 3.30

 

GOTG:

5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $6,312,367 $366,431,539

(390,000,000 - 366,431,539) / (6,312,367) = 3.73

 

POTC:

4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $10,704,103 $135,830,397

 

(172,000,000 - 135,830,397) / (10,704,103) = 3.38

The current gross is the same as its OW, so I believe it's whatever multi it is. @baumer

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The current gross is the same as its OW, so I believe it's whatever multi it is. @baumer

So for example, if you were to say that you think WW will have the best multiplier of the 8, then you are using the weekend number and determining from there what the multiplier will be.  So right now, as of this post, for example, WW has made 206.46 million after a weekend gross of 58.52 million.  If you think it will have the best multiplier, then you figure out what you think the final gross will be, subtract it from the current gross listed and the divide by the weekend number.  Sounds complicated, but it's not.

 

 

I thought the Megan Leavey one was tricky....  hope I am not wrong!!!

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The current gross is the same as its OW, so I believe it's whatever multi it is. @baumer

I think you only divide by the OW, but you subtract the current gross from the final gross.  Therefore Megan Leavy's current gross would be zero and Monday + Tuesday and so forth will begin its quest for the multiplier

[Jake Gittes]

I initially put Megan Leavey in there then realized (just before the deadline, thankfully) that "multiplier" as we typically use it doesn't apply to ML in that question. It's not over 3x because we don't use the weekend gross as part of the total. If it finishes with 13m we don't divide that by 3.8m, we only divide the post-weekend gross (9.2m). That'd be consistent with all the other movies and the way the question is worded. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

I initially put Megan Leavey in there then realized (just before the deadline, thankfully) that "multiplier" as we typically use it doesn't apply to ML in that question. It's not over 3x because we don't use the weekend gross as part of the total. If it finishes with 13m we don't divide that by 3.8m, we only divide the post-weekend gross (9.2m). That'd be consistent with all the other movies and the way the question is worded. 

.....Dammit, I knew I should have kept POTC in there. Oh well, at least I'll get 10k for having GOTG and WW.

[narniadis]

And I need several make ups it seems....

 

I have just not been paying attention - my worst game in all the years of playing and it shows cause I am doing worse than @Telemachos - something very unusual for me....

 

[BadAtGender]

11 hours ago, Telemachos said:

This new weekly scoring system is murdering me. Used to be I could skate by with shitty weeklies and not get hurt too badly. 

 

 

 

I used to be good at weeklies.

 

Fucking Christ, I'm bad this year.

[baumer]

FUCK THESE SOTM......IVE BEEN DECIMATED BY THEM.

[Empire]

Moved up to top 20. My slow climb to the top continues. 

[baumer]

As for BOTM #1....I'll score that one myself...when the time is right.

[Chewy]

On 7/7/2017 at 10:59 AM, JJ-8 said:

SOTM table update :

 

#	User	SOTM etc	SOTM 1	BOTM 1
1	24Lost	119,000	54,000	20,000
2	Matrix4You	95,000	59,000	20,000
3	Exxdee	93,000	80,000	5,000
4	Simionski	93,000	65,000	20,000
5	Empire	79,000	59,000	20,000
6	franfar	76,000	30,000	20,000
7	Jake Gittes	76,000	66,000	30,000
8	Spaghetti	71,000	66,000	5,000
9	glassfairy	68,000	60,000	5,000
10	bcf26	56,000	35,000	5,000
11	jj99	54,000	31,000	5,000
12	That One Guy	51,000	18,000	30,000
13	MrPink	47,000	42,000	5,000
14	darkelf	46,000	15,000	5,000
15	Wrath	43,000	12,000	5,000
16	aabattery	42,000	-14,000	30,000
17	Kalo	35,000	35,000
18	grim22	34,000	28,000	-20,000
19	WrathofHan	34,000	59,000	5,000
20	Grey Ghost	32,000	36,000	-20,000
21	JJ-8	32,000	12,000	20,000
22	narniadis	28,000	8,000	20,000
23	Alfred	27,000	-24,000	5,000
24	Tree	18,000	-8,000
25	#ED	15,000	15,000
26	damnitgeorge08	8,000	0	5,000
27	DamienRoc	3,000	-2,000	5,000
28	The Panda	1,000	26,000	5,000
29	BastienGiot	-8,000	-8,000
30	cmasterclay	-8,000	-8,000
31	Goffe	-8,000	-8,000
32	Mike Hunt	-8,000	-8,000
33	Chewy	-18,000	-6,000	-15,000
34	kayumanggi	-21,000	4,000	5,000
35	Telemachos	-22,000	28,000	-20,000
36	MovieMan89	-37,000	-37,000
37	Blankments	-45,000	-23,000	-30,000
38	Baumer	-49,000	1,000	-20,000
39	Chasmmi	-51,000	-26,000	5,000
40	Fancyarcher	-58,000	-8,000	-20,000
41	Water Bottle	-73,000	6,000	-15,000

 

Listen I might be 33rd on this chart BUT I'm above Tele and that is the only thing that matters

[baumer]

Id Spidey falls more than 22.5% on Sunday we are all pretty much fucked on the weekly question thing.

[kayumanggi]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

Id Spidey falls more than 22.5% on Sunday we are all pretty much fucked on the weekly question thing.

 

Please no.

[JJ-8]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

Id Spidey falls more than 22.5% on Sunday we are all pretty much fucked on the weekly question thing.

 

Yep... it's ugly.

 

8 / 14 went YES

1 / 14 went NO

3 / 14 Passed

2 / 14 Cashed out

 

If SMH dips less than 22.5% on sunday we will have 11 players remaining in the game (including our current top 2)

if it dips more than 22.5% then  only 4 players will remain.  the 3 passes don't care but @bcf26 will be begging to the boxoffice gods to cause  SMH to dip a little harder  on sunday

[JJ-8]

Well the estimate leaves very little wriggle room. QOTW will need to wait for actuals this week. 21.9 is the estimate do the answer is yes but could go either way.....

[Kalo]

This is crazy, 21.9% is way closer then I was hoping. I still had a pass left too.. 

[WrathOfHan]

I'm confident that Sunday is being lowballed.

[dxmatrixdt]

Asgard should see our fates

[dxmatrixdt]

OMG for SOTM I put Yes for Captain Underpants when in my mind it was NOOOO.  Just lost 30,000 points!  i am going to have to do some heavy gambling now.  Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys!

 

1.   30,000  / 1,000 - Will Spiderman make more than $40M Opening Day? - YES

2.   25,000  / 2,000 - Will Baby Driver outgross the Mummy? - YES

3.   22,000 /  3,000 - Will Transformers outgross Cars 3 Domestically? - NO

4.   20,000  / 4,000 - Will the House drop more than 60% on its second weekend? - NO

5.   18,000  / 5,000 - Will Valerian outgross Baywatch Domestically? - YES

 

6.   15,000  / 6,000 - Will Annabelle have an Opening Weekend above $30M? - YES

7.   12,000 / 8,000 - Will Girls Trip make more than $6M opening day? - YES

8.   10,000  / 10,000 - Will Spiderman make more than $115M Opening weekend? - YES

9.   8,000   /  12,000 - Will Atomic Blonde open above the Emoji Movie? - YES

10.  6,000  / 15,000 - Will Planet of the Apes outgross Despicable Me Domestically? - NO

 

11.  5,000  / 18,000 - Will Dunkirk make more than $500M worldwide? - YES

12.  4,000  / 20,000 - Will Wonder Woman make $400M? - YES

13.  3,000  / 22,000 -  Will Spiderman make more than $310M by the end of the game? - YES

14.  2,000  / 25,000 - Will the Big Sick make more than $20M - YES

15.  1,000  / 30,000 - Will Captain Underpants make the final domestic top 15 list? - YES