Weak-end Thread | Hitman's Bodyguard 21.6M; Annabelle 15.5M; Logan Lucky 8M; Dunkirk 6.7M | Wonder Woman beats Spider-Man and is now at 404M

[filmlover]

30 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I'm kind of surprised Emoji is holding so well.

Total lack of competition. If the film hadn't gotten reviews as toxic as they were, it likely would've crossed $100M+ with ease.

[CJohn]

15 minutes ago, MrPink said:

5m is a fine hold. Will do 15m this weekend which is what I expected coming off Monday #. Ask @CJohn for evidence.

15M is the expected, yeah. It is a good number.

 

WoHan was expecting like 12M so now he needs to spin 15M as a bad hold. It is literally the new Wonder Woman for him. He will be projecting 60%+ drops every weekend and fail every time.

[YM!]

Due to a crappy summer for animation, I think Ninjago, Pony, and The Star might make solid numbers. I know I'm bias but I think Ninjago can benefit from a crappy summer for animation and do some big numbers (under TLBM but over Cloudy 2). Pony can do Spongebob 1 numbers ($75M-$85M), and I see The Star can be Affirm Film's highest grosser domestically and do $70M-$75M.

[XO21]

DK is probably getting Director and the tech nominations...BP is very unlikely given the snubs in the past and without screenplay and acting noms

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The Star might make solid numbers. I see The Star can be Affirm Film's highest grosser domestically and do $70M-$75M.

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, XO21 said:

DK is probably getting Director and the tech nominations...BP is very unlikely given the snubs in the past and without screenplay and acting noms

 

Best Pic is a better lock than Director. The expanded number of nominations will guarantee it.

 

Inception and Mad Max are the blue prints.

Edited August 19, 2017 by MrPink

[YM!]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

The floor for this is Arthur Christmas numbers ($50M).

[Nova]

I don't see how Dunkirk doesn't get a best picture nom. 

 

Just because the Oscar buzz is "gone" doesn't mean people have forgotten about it. Oscar buzz starts the week of release and then goes away. There's only so many articles someone can write about why so and so Movie needs to be in the Oscar discussion. After that the buzz goes away until awards season actually starts. That's when you see which movies were actually in the discussion and which movies were pretenders. 

 

Dunkirk is a run away for a best picture nomination based on the films that have been released so far. 

Edited August 19, 2017 by Nova

[Ethan Hunt]

don't see Dunkirk missing BP or BD but idk there is still a lot of time

[LastSon]

WW $315k Friday. 

121% increase from yesterday and 23% drop from last Saturday 

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

don't see Dunkirk missing BP or BD but idk there is still a lot of time

 

I would lean towards this. Basically, if the Oscar crop is unusually strong, OK, maybe Dunkirk misses out, but this is probably Nolan's strongest narrative he has ever had going for him.

 

From what it sounds like, the Academy screening went extremely well too. He'll get his noms, and then a few tech wins.

 

If Best Pic nom misses, I want you guys to set up a 24 hr check in system for me

Edited August 19, 2017 by MrPink

[Brainbug]

Just now, LastSon said:

WW $315k Friday. 

121% increase from yesterday and 23% drop from last Saturday 

 

Wonder Womans run is pathetic!

 

Cant even increase from last Friday! SAD!

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The floor for this is Arthur Christmas numbers ($50M).

More like the roof.

[YM!]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

More like the roof.

I can't realistically see under $35M, these type of films have a built in audience.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

I would lean towards this. Basically, if the Oscar crop is unusually strong, OK, maybe Dunkirk misses out, but this is probably Nolan's strongest narrative he has ever had going for him.

 

From what it sounds like, the Academy screening went extremely well too. He'll get his noms, and then a few tech wins.

 

If Best Pic nom misses, I want you guys to set up a 24 hr check in system for me

Don't you mean misses a Best Director nom? Because Best Picture is all but assured out of the movies released so far.

 

(and if Nolan does get snubbed, God help you)

[LastSon]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Wonder Womans run is pathetic!

 

Cant even increase from last Friday! SAD!

I know! Just the worst! 

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Don't you mean misses a Best Director nom? Because Best Picture is all but assured out of the movies released so far.

 

(and if Nolan does get snubbed, God help you)

 

I have a 30% expectation that Nolan misses on Best Director noms. 5 slots, and a lot of things can happen so I always expect it.

 

Missing Best Pic is what would make me suicidal, I put those odds of missing at like 5%

Edited August 19, 2017 by MrPink

[Zakiyyah6]

Unless the comp is insane Dunkirk will get a best pic and best director nod. 

 

Wonder Woman's Friday is great, Hitman did well and Annabelle is going to hold as well as can be expected. Logan Lucky did the middling numbers that were expected of it.

[Nova]

Nolan missing out on best director is something I'd expect. He always gets the short end of the stick in that category. 

 

Like we live in a world where Damien Chazelle has a best director win but Christopher fucking Nolan has yet to win or even be nominated for one.  

[MrPink]

Just now, Nova said:

Nolan missing out on best director is something I'd expect. He always gets the short end of the stick in that category. 

 

Like we live in a world where Damien Chazelle has a best director win but Christopher fucking Nolan has yet to win or even be nominated for one.  

 

I'm bowing out of this convo. Logan Lucky time