China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[jiangsen]

Perhaps I'm showing my age, but I don't give a rat's ass who ends up with who and who looks like what. I just care about watching smart, well-made movies.

 

Anyways...let's maybe get this forum back to a box office discussion...Star Wars fanboys and girls/non fanboys and girls, take your qualms elsewhere.

 

So, thoughts on the better-than-TFA weekday holds despite what appears to be weaker WOM?

 

Is this related to the pollution some reports were talking about? Maybe, there's still some pent up demand because people couldn't get out of their homes this weekend? I personally think the pollution excuse is bullshit, but curious to hear others thoughts.

 

Or is this playing more like a local movie because of Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen? Hollywood blockbusters tend to drop hard on the weekends compared to local movies so maybe this is what we're seeing?

 

 

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, jiangsen said:

Perhaps I'm showing my age, but I don't give a rat's ass who ends up with who and who looks like what. I just care about watching smart, well-made movies.

Anyways...let's maybe get this forum back to a box office discussion...Star Wars fanboys and girls/non fanboys and girls, take your qualms elsewhere.

So, thoughts on the better-than-TFA weekday holds despite what appears to be weaker WOM?

Is this related to the pollution some reports were talking about? Maybe, there's still some pent up demand because people couldn't get out of their homes this weekend? I personally think the pollution excuse is bullshit, but curious to hear others thoughts.

Or is this playing more like a local movie because of Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen? Hollywood blockbusters tend to drop hard on the weekends compared to local movies so maybe this is what we're seeing?

My exact same thoughts, I do not even get it...

I'd like to know too, see drops

 

Is there any chance to get a bit of splits for country-side / regions with more new to the cinema 'thing' (means that didn't have a cinema in the past) and cities?

Any kind of data with the input for whatever variations? 

 

 

[Mrstickball]

Maybe RO is playing in China exactly like it did in the US: the conventional wisdom thought that the movie was going to drop like a rock after its 1st weekend, while others argued that since its a spin-off, no one would rush to see it at theaters, despite the IP being huge. Maybe China is not far off in that regard, and RO ends up a bit leggier than TFA, just like it has in the US.

[Tower]

26 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

Maybe RO is playing in China exactly like it did in the US: the conventional wisdom thought that the movie was going to drop like a rock after its 1st weekend, while others argued that since its a spin-off, no one would rush to see it at theaters, despite the IP being huge. Maybe China is not far off in that regard, and RO ends up a bit leggier than TFA, just like it has in the US.

 

TFA has been leggier than RO so far domestically, multiplier after 25 days:

TFA: 3.29

RO: 3.09

Edited January 10, 2017 by Tower

[TigerPaw]

5 hours ago, jiangsen said:

Perhaps I'm showing my age, but I don't give a rat's ass who ends up with who and who looks like what. I just care about watching smart, well-made movies.

 

Anyways...let's maybe get this forum back to a box office discussion...Star Wars fanboys and girls/non fanboys and girls, take your qualms elsewhere.

 

So, thoughts on the better-than-TFA weekday holds despite what appears to be weaker WOM?

 

Is this related to the pollution some reports were talking about? Maybe, there's still some pent up demand because people couldn't get out of their homes this weekend? I personally think the pollution excuse is bullshit, but curious to hear others thoughts.

 

Or is this playing more like a local movie because of Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen? Hollywood blockbusters tend to drop hard on the weekends compared to local movies so maybe this is what we're seeing?

 

 

I think its because of local stars - Jiang Wen and Donnie Yen (especialy the latter).

Almost every postive review I've seen or heard from China talks about their pertormance. How the film picks up slightly ONLY after Donnie's fight scene, how the 2 actors were not soya sauce like other chinese stars in Hollywood movies...

It makes more GA curious to see really how their local stars performed relative to the rest even if they don't know a single thing about Star Wars and despite below average reviews on Maoyan.

But how long this curiousity factor is goung to play out... that's hard to say. This weekend will determine.

[Valonqar]

59 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

I think its because of local stars - Jiang Wen and Donnie Yen (especialy the latter).

Almost every postive review I've seen or heard from China talks about their pertormance. How the film picks up slightly ONLY after Donnie's fight scene, how the 2 actors were not soya sauce like other chinese stars in Hollywood movies...

It makes more GA curious to see really how their local stars performed relative to the rest even if they don't know a single thing about Star Wars and despite below average reviews on Maoyan.

But how long this curiousity factor is goung to play out... that's hard to say. This weekend will determine.

 

What do you think, would a Star Wars movie about Donnie's character Chirrut or Churrut and Baze (the Guardians) be popular? It won't be made now considering what happens in RO, but in theory, do you think that Lucasfilm missed the opportunity here? 

[Ariana]

If Lucasfilm wants to bring Donnie Yen to future SW episodic movies, they can cast him as the descendant of Imwe family. The child inherits the face of his ancestor Chirrut Imwe. It sounds logical enough.

[robertman2]

Or prequels

[ttr]

If Lucasfilm wants to bring Donnie Yen to future SW episodic movies, they can cast him as the descendant of Imwe family. The child inherits the face of his ancestor Chirrut Imwe. It sounds logical enough.

Or maybe as long lost twin brother. Or maybe RO was just a dream. [emoji6]

[ahadm8888]

only 16 days for kung fu yoga from jackie chan 

[zackzack]

5 hours ago, robertman2 said:

Or prequels

 

A prequel to a prequel?

Is that a first?

[TigerPaw]

3 hours ago, ahadm8888 said:

only 16 days for kung fu yoga from jackie chan 

After he fudge all the numbers for Railroad Tigers, I am not even slightly interested in his next movie. 

[TigerPaw]

10 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

What do you think, would a Star Wars movie about Donnie's character Chirrut or Churrut and Baze (the Guardians) be popular? It won't be made now considering what happens in RO, but in theory, do you think that Lucasfilm missed the opportunity here? 

Ah, I think it will be extremely popular if

1) Lucasfilms released Rogue One in 2015 instead of TFA. (So the first live action Star Wars after so many years was R1 instead of TFA)
2) totally prevent TFA from showing in China cinemas, and only release Rogue One.

Under the above scenarios, with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen's star power, will easily cross 1 billion yuan, and will land around 1.2-1.5billion yuan IMO. (more than double of the current predicted China gross) (Of course also dependent on Film's quality, marketing efforts, release dates etc)

 

But as you know TFA killed the hype of Star Wars in China + Disney Asia really dropped the ball and did not put in effort in offline/on the ground marketing for R1 (I have a long post on that). Hence resulting in this "failure" in terms of Rogue One current BO numbers.

And...honestly, there is so much they could have done to make Rogue One earn more in China.
Eg: I felt they could have cut out 10-15mins at the start of the movie.

That will a) Make it less boring and sleep-inducing, which is what many Chinese audiences are complaining about

b ) Allow Donnie Yen/Jiang Wen to appear earlier, hence making GA happier.

c) A shorter movie means more showtimes/showings... which is very important in the Chinese market.

I just really feel that Disney Asia/China dropped the ball hard on this. Disney is known to be market specific, like changing different animations of Inside-out to suit different region, there is so much they could have done to the film to make it be more successful in China but they didn't. 
*I am not suggesting they add more scenes just for the chinese audiences, like in Iron Man 3, because that is just stupid... but cutting out parts of the movie could have worked.

Edited January 11, 2017 by TigerPaw

[robertman2]

3 hours ago, zackzack said:

 

A prequel to a prequel?

Is that a first?

Yes

 

And technically this was an interquel 

[ahadm8888]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

After he fudge all the numbers for Railroad Tigers, I am not even slightly interested in his next movie. 

Railroad Tigers is bad ?

jackie chan always good 

 

[Valonqar]

@TigerPaw Thank you so much on your input. So TFA ruined SW in China seemingly irreparably. What do you think will happen next? Will Disney give up China as SW market and just concentrate marketing and other efforts on where it does well, or they'll try to make SW China friendly somehow? And what do you think could improve VIII performance (outside of hiring Chinese actors and/or filming in China which hasn't happened)?

Edited January 11, 2017 by Valonqar

[Olive]

WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
Rogue One - ￥22M /280M 
Some Like It Hot - ￥16.5M/415M
Railroad Tigers - ￥7.4M/623M
The Great Wall - ￥4.7M/￥1118M 
Hacksaw Ridge - ￥2M/￥398M 
See You Tomorrow - ￥1.45M/472M
Nerve - ￥1M/10.4M
Moana - ￥0.3M/223.3M

[TigerPaw]

6 minutes ago, Olive said:

WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
Rogue One - ￥22M /280M 
Some Like It Hot - ￥16.5M/415M
Railroad Tigers - ￥7.4M/623M
The Great Wall - ￥4.7M/￥1118M 
Hacksaw Ridge - ￥2M/￥398M 
See You Tomorrow - ￥1.45M/472M
Nerve - ￥1M/10.4M
Moana - ￥0.3M/223.3M

 

Good hold for Rogue One! =) Tracking above Star Trek, let's see how the weekend goes. Much more competition for Rogue One this weekend in terms of showtime slashes. Hope it holds well.
 

Star Trek's 2nd weekend, it was still the movie with the most showings...followed closely by Shallows. 

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

@TigerPaw Thank you so much on your input. So TFA ruined SW in China seemingly irreparably. What do you think will happen next? Will Disney give up China as SW market and just concentrate marketing and other efforts on where it does well, or they'll try to make SW China friendly somehow? And what do you think could improve VIII performance (outside of hiring Chinese actors and/or filming in China which hasn't happened)?

 

You are more than welcome! Episode 8 has wrapped, so like what you said, adding Chinese actors/filming in China is impossible now. Anyway, there are not much Chinese actors that can help boost the Chinese box office, in fact Rogue One already chose 2 of the bests in the market.

Trust me when I say, Fan Bing Bing did not help X Men Days of Future Past and Iron Man 3 in China at all, Fan Bing Bing's chinese movies...5 out of 6 are flops themselves.
Same as Jay Chou in Now You See Me 2.. Chinese loved Now you see me 1, so 2 naturally earned more but that really has nothing much to do with Jay Chou imo.
And Pacific Rim 2 will do very well because the first one was well-loved, but it will have nothing to do with JingTian (Wanda Shareholder's girlfriend; Wanda is the parent company of Legendary Pictures now).

A little bit of copy & pasting from myself here, cause there was a similar discussion in the international BO for R1 thread.
So....It depends on numerous factors.

1) R1's WOM is better than TFA in China, so can it gain some fans for Ep8? 

2) How much effort/marketing budget is Disney going to put for this? Or is it giving up on China?

3) Will Carrie Fisher's death cause China movie-goers to support the movie?

--> I mean many of them treat Paul Walker as their own after he is deceased, FF7 exploded at China's box office despite Paul Walker not being a big name there. But once he passed on, Chinese took him as their own and watched the entire F&F series.. Will this effect be the same for Carrie Fisher?

So.. there are too many uncertainties for me to give a concrete answer. But R1 is becoming a big disappointment right now in China, I really can't see episode 8 doing much worse. BTW, one of the earlier pages in this China BO thread, I talked about the translated title for R1 in China(One of the worst Hollywood translations ever).. That probably will not happen with a main episode.

If you want to read how I feel about the marketing of R1 in China, you can read this post: 

 

[Valonqar]

@TigerPaw Yikes! Disney really dropped the ball despite Donnie and Jiang which should have been a slamdunk.

 

I think there's a difference between a contemporary, cool lifestyle F&F series and watching old 70s and 80s Star wars movies. So I don't expect Walker effect from carrie Fisher. It's apples and oranges, IMO. Different era. Walker appeals to young generation which is F&F's biggest audience. Carrie not so much. She's an icon but it isn't like as if some young star died. Robin Williams didn't have effect on Night at the Museum either.

[Leviathan]

On 1/11/2017 at 1:47 AM, jiangsen said:

Perhaps I'm showing my age, but I don't give a rat's ass who ends up with who and who looks like what. I just care about watching smart, well-made movies.

 

Anyways...let's maybe get this forum back to a box office discussion...Star Wars fanboys and girls/non fanboys and girls, take your qualms elsewhere.

 

So, thoughts on the better-than-TFA weekday holds despite what appears to be weaker WOM?

 

Is this related to the pollution some reports were talking about? Maybe, there's still some pent up demand because people couldn't get out of their homes this weekend? I personally think the pollution excuse is bullshit, but curious to hear others thoughts.

 

Or is this playing more like a local movie because of Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen? Hollywood blockbusters tend to drop hard on the weekends compared to local movies so maybe this is what we're seeing?

 

 

 

I think when Guardian of the Galaxy vol 2 succeeds (and of course Avatar franchise, which isn't questionable at all) in every region that Star Wars brand fails to achieve, American newspapers will begin to seriously question why their beloved SW failed. For now, lame excuse is expected. US critics are well known for being fond of SW. See the two magical examples below for easy reference
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_episode_i_the_phantom_menace/
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_episode_ii_attack_of_the_clones/

Edited January 11, 2017 by Leviathan