Poseidon

Wow, that's quite an achievement for RA2. I thought my 40m might have been high after those previews. Bit it's very early. Btw, they changed the numbers for Star Wars and Revenenat and now have: SW: $28m-$31m Rev: $32m - $34m Earlier, they had $30m-$31m for both movies.

For whatever reason, 5th Wave looks to be very backloaded, saturday looks pretty strong already, especially the afternoon sessions. Seems like heavy marketing on Pro 7 had an effect on younger teens.

You can adjust your model again, as this most probably won't do 3,5m on wednesday. A flat 3m, followed by a 2,9m thursday (depending on how big Ride Along can be in Previews) seems reasonable.

TFA probably wont get nominated 11 times and probably won't win all those. Most probably and most important, not the beste Picture award.

That Drop for "The Revenant" doesn't look special at all. In 2014, "American Hustle managed a sub 50% drop, but that one was out for longer already. The best comparison should be "Zero Dark thirty" in 2013, that went wide the same weekend and had a 62% drop on monday without winning Best Picture.

So the final number for saturday is $31,7m? So many numbers in here, but no idea about the official one.

That $41m number for Star Wars looks quite optimistic. So far, it didn't play like a family movie at all (why should it, statistics show, it's scewing very old), so $38m wouldn't surprise me, even lower is on the cards to be honest.

Sisters is doing amazing. Should get to a $7,7m weekend, down only 40%, pretty much the same drop, "It's complicted" had 6 years ago. With that movies legs, "Sisters" could actually land right on the $100m mark.

Well, that was expected. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2010&wknd=02&p=.htm

We have 2 openers overperforming, don't we?

One of the greatest teasers of all time. Maybe the greatest, after ID4s SB-Spot.

Well, some old men in the academy still can't get over the fact, that they cried like little babies, when Jack got part of the sea.

Revenant seems to be doing even better than I thought. It had tuesday previews already and it's still going very strong on thursday, one of the weaker days of the week. This battle is looking closer than I thought at the top.

They also give The Revenant a 17m opening, which I think is ridiculously low.

Who cares why it is playing in January? "The nut Job" did a ridiculous 25m over the 4d-weekend in January. And "The lego Movie" opened only a week later and did what? Close to 70m opening? After the movies conquered September and October in the last couple of years, it's time to put more biggies in January. Hell, KFP is the only kids movie in 2 full months. Yeah, there is SW with 250m left in the tank, but holdovers? Alvin is dead, Peanuts dead. Nothing, nothing for families. KFP might very well surprise.

Putting KFP in January might have been a great move, like when Sony pushed to September with their animation. A lot of no-name Animation movies did great business in recent years, after a lot of trailering over the holidays and a serious lack of competition.

Can't see that drop happening for SW with IMAX. Should go up with actuals.

What would you call nasty, though? We can't look at Avatar anymore, now, this is where that movies amazing run really started. All the other movies dropped by 45% and more in 2010. So SW dropped by 40% the last 2 weekends in a holiday period. I thought another 40% drop, after the holidays are over in most parts, would be amazing, but SW is yet to proof such a hold in its run, so that "needed" 40% drop is not a given from that point of its run. Don't get me wrong, SW is pulling out amazing numbers, but the amazement is coming from where it started, not how it held. So of course, there will be a point, when it starts to change it's pattern and go for a normal run with normal holds. I'm just not sure, if the coming weekend will be it, though.

"Bro before hoe".

Probably slightly slower WE, but bigger weekdays for SW.

Nearly a million came from doubles and triples, though. The original run ended at around 11Mio for LOTR1.

Hell, no. More like $115m-$120m, maybe even slightly above. Should do $12m+ the coming weekend alone and after that, there's still holidays in many parts.

Should be $70m-$71m until and incl. Dec 30th. It's doing pretty good and should come close to 10m admissions after that great run of weekdays, after a somewhat disappointing weekend.

There was a bug in my calculation either way. Got confused by RTHs 29% drop on his daylies, not recognizing, it was the drop from last sunday. But still, looking at the other movies and 2009, I can't see any major weather effects there, causin SW to drop 10% bigger than estimates and Avatar.

We are talking about sundays drop, though.