MovieMan89

Very similar to ROTK's comparative hold, so that's good.

It's a little worse than Avatar's comparative hold, so par for the course for TFA.

The trailer falls extremely flat. If it's any good indicator I can definitely see why this was moved out of awards season now.

I remember no one wanted to use TFA for the longest time, only using SW7. I was using it as soon as it was announced, but it only seemed to really catch on here over SW7 a couple months ago.

The one people care about.

I'm sure we'll just go with RO around here, since we don't use that for anything else. For some reason ASM always bugged me for The Amazing Spider-Man. I refuse to not use TASM.

I think 60 is way too big for Deadpool if the polarizing reaction to marketing is much to go by. I'd say both are likely to be 45-50 4 days.

That's pretty cool! Though I feel like most of our regulars have all these acronyms ingrained into their memory. Or maybe that's just me.

Eh, not the same audience at all really. I think Disney is well aware that the non-family audience the first attracted due to the 3D hype isn't going to show for this no matter what. So they will target solely the family audience, and X-men I'd say is one of the least family targeted CBM franchises. So Alice could be good counter-programming.

Ikr? 40 years old would be a bit hard to believe, 50 is preposterous.

In which case Blanchett is out, so she's not a lock.

I hate to rain on your parade shay, but there is about a 50/50 chance a Pixar movie wins this year and about a 99% chance it finishes top 2.

Revenant will join, Sisters is a decent chance. The Big Short if it picks up a lot of awards momentum (though the Globes weren't a good start). Otherwise I'd say no to anything else.

If Leo were to miss even a nomination this year, then he can officially forget about ever winning an Oscar.

Larson is locked, Ronan is near locked, and the other 3 spots are basically a giant "who knows" between these women: Blanchett Rampling Lawrence Vikander Blunt Theron

Oh and the "experts" this year are seeming totally useless. They still have Spotlight as the far away frontrunner. In what universe is that the case? At the very best it is like in a three way tie for frontrunner, and I doubt even that.

Yeah, I basically agree with all this and said as much months ago. I am still (pleasantly) shocked MM has any real chance at all. It is soooo not what the Academy goes for, or at least before now. The DGAs will be telling. I still think it has built enough momentum to make it there and the Oscars, but as you said, man will it ever be the most unorthodox BP nominee of all time.

I was shocked to see this at #9 on Fandago's most anticipated of the year poll (especially this year when there are a million and one blockbusters scheduled). Granted, that doesn't always mean surefire smash, but even still I'd have to think that puts at least a 35m OW for this as highly likely.

TFA won't fall below 25m next weekend. Here are the MLK weekend holds for the other top December OWs: Avatar: -15% Return of the King: -28% The Two Towers: -30% An Unexpected Journey: -33% The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe: -36% I Am Legend: -40% Sherlock Holmes: -40% The Desolation of Smaug: -54% I see no reason it wouldn't drop 40% or less like all the others except Smaug, which never had great WOM. I think it will fall around 30%.

Okay usual rules apply. This is for a 3 day weekend, top 12 and so forth UOS. 1. Will a new film be number 1 this weekend? NO 2. Will Revenant stay in the top 3? 3000 YES 3. Will Norm of the North finish above Daddy's Home? NO 4. How many new entries will be in the top 5 this weekend? 2000 TWO 5. Will The Forest drop more than 63%? YES 6. Will the Big short have the lowest weekend drop of any film that decreases from last weekend (If it randomly increases then that makes this an auto yes)? YES 7. Will Good Dinosaur stay above Creed? NO 8. How many different best picture/best director (only 1 is needed not both) Oscar Nominees will finish in the top 18? 3000 2 9. Will the Hateful 8 have a better Saturday gross than Alvin? NO 10. Will the Revenant's Total gross overtake Sisters' total gross by the end of the weekend? YES 11. 13 Hours will be Michael Bay's 12th film according to Mojo. Where will it's opening weekend rank alongside his other films? 2000 9TH 12. Will Brooklyn have a better percentage change than Spotlight this weekend? NO 13. Will Danish Girl stay in the top 20? NO 14. Will the three highest new entries combined gross more than the 3 highest non-new entries combined? NO 15. Will any film drop more than 47% on Sunday? YES 16. Will the Big Short remain in the top 8? 3000 YES 17. Will Spectre stay above the Martian? NO 18. Will Hunger Game's PTA stay above $1200? YES 19. Will any film increase more than 175% on Friday? 2000 YES 20. how many films make more than $10M this weekend? 5 21. How many Oscars Nominations should Jem and the Holograms and Mortdecai have received this year? ALL OF THEM 14/21 2000 15/21 3000 16/21 4000 17/21 6000 18/21 8000 19/21 10000 20/21 12000 21/21 15000 Part 2. 1. What will be the combined weekend gross of the Best Picture Nominations? 5000 31.445 2. What will Revenant gross on Friday? 5000 7.515 3. What will Creed's total be by the end of the weekend? 5000 107.015 4. What will be the combined Sunday gross of all the Best Song and best Animated feature Nominations? 5000 275k Positions 2. The Force Awakens 5. Daddy's Home 7. Norm 9. The Forest 12. Joy 14. MJ2 2000 each or... 3/6 2000 4/6 5000 5/6 8000 6/6 12000

Btw, the gap between TFA and MJ2 for 1st and 2nd is hilarious. The difference will practically be Avatar's gross.

TFA will stay way ahead of The Revenant next weekend (any remaining holiday weekends are going to be huge for TFA). But yeah, RA2 should win barring either a big underperformance for it or a supernaturally good Avatar hold for TFA.

Yeah the title is pretty awful. My first thought when seeing the title was that it was maybe the Bridget Jones 3 movie they're doing.

Shia was good (albeit a bit grating) as a dorky teenager in the first one. The others though...oof.

Ant-Man looked really good with its budget. Kind of proof that studios shouldn't be so quick to throw 200m at every blockbuster. You can still make a good looking special effects heavy film for less.