Wednesday #'s (IM3 - 8.1M) (let the meltdown begin) 200M in 6 days!

[Sam]

Is 8m really that bad? I mean, aren't kids in school and shit? Or were people just expecting this to be Avengers 2?

It looks like with this kind of performance for IM3, TA2 will likely decrease in OW from TA1.

[RichWS]

Thurs - $8.1m (flat)

Fri - $21m (+160%)

Sat - $29.5m (+40%)

Sun - $20.7m (-30%)

 

59.1% drop for the weekend. This is with weaker Friday/Saturday increases than IM1 (179% Friday, 43.7% Saturday).

 

I'd lower the Friday and raise the Saturday, but I agree with your weekend drop.

Edited May 9, 2013 by RichWS

[Heretic]

Is 8m really that bad? I mean, aren't kids in school and shit? Or were people just expecting this to be Avengers 2?

It's absolutely appalling. I couldn't think of a worse number ever recorded in the history of box office.

[druv10]

But you can't have it both ways.  If it's going to jump that much Friday, then the Thurs number will be lower and the Sat jump will not be more than 50%.

 

Well SM1 jumped 166% followed by another 53% and IM1 which it's Monday drop was similar had 179% followed by 44% jump so we'll know Friday night when Rth updates where this is heading. 

[baumer]

OMG

 

You guys just don't learn...

 

If you looked at Spider Man 3 week days it should have dropped 70% !!

 

WHY it no drop 70%, because its May!!!

 

Its like a bunch of mewling quims every year forgotting box office basics all the time.

 

Fair enough, but just find me a film to model it after. 

[redfirebird2008]

What film did you model it after?

 

IM1, just smaller increases on Friday/Saturday and the same drop on Sunday. The Thursday number isn't modeled after anything other than gut feeling. lol

[kayumanggi]

Dude, it's playing closer to SM/IM1 so we'll see who was right once again. You'll say you didn't see it coming.  

 

Following IM1

 

Thur 7.47M

Fri  20.85M

Sat 29.96M

Sun 20.94M  

Total 71.75M

 

But why would it follow IM?

[baumer]

Well SM1 jumped 166% followed by another 53% and IM1 which it's Monday drop was similar had 179% followed by 44% jump so we'll know Friday night when Rth updates where this is heading. 

 

 

This is not SM1, come on dude.  That was the first film in a series of films and its wOM was out of this world.  IM3 is not going to follow that.

[Sam]

Fair enough, but just find me a film to model it after. 

That's where you're wrong, B. IM3 is doing whatever it pleases 

[baumer]

IM1, just smaller increases on Friday/Saturday and the same drop on Sunday. The Thursday number isn't modeled after anything other than gut feeling. lol

 

 

You can't use IM1, seeing as its Tueday and Wednesday were galaxies apart from IM3.

[RichWS]

We're all talking out of our asses at this point. 

Edited May 9, 2013 by RichWS

[druv10]

It's not playing anything like IM.

 

IM fell 6% on Tuesday and 11% on Wed...pretty big difference from flat on Tuesday and a enar 30% drop on Wed.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=ironman.htm

 

I was talking about Monday drop. 

[baumer]

I was talking about Monday drop. 

 

Now you are just picking arbitrary days to use.  Fact is it has not behaved at all like IM1. 

[Michael Gary Scott]

For game reasons I want it to get as close to 360 as possible

[Jay Beezy]

This weekend will give us a better indicator of just how much this is playing like a family film. The Saturday increase from Friday's number less previews, along with the steeper Sun-Mon drop, was pretty suggestive of that.

[druv10]

This is not SM1, come on dude.  That was the first film in a series of films and its wOM was out of this world.  IM3 is not going to follow that.

 

 

I know but you can't use Thor either since it's playing like a family movie. Saturday hold, Tuesday increase and this Wednesday number proves that. We'll just have to wait for Friday.

[Gopher]

IM3 had a worse Monday drop than Avengers and Thor by a full 5-7% so I don't think we're going to see an increase as low as 130%. 

 

Provided the day up, day down roller coaster continues-

 

7.7m Thursday (-5%) 

18.5m Friday (140%) 

30.7m Saturday (66%) 

21.5m Sunday (-30%) 

 

70.7m weekend 

Edited May 9, 2013 by Gopher

[baumer]

We're all talking out of our asses at this point. 

 

Not really.

 

There is data available to go by.  I'm just simply asking people to use it.  I'm not saying it is fool proof, but if you are going to say the film is going to jump 170% on Friday and another 60% on Saturday, find me another film that did that, and if it exists, then show me the jumps and falls on the T,W,T as well.

[druv10]

Now you are just picking arbitrary days to use.  Fact is it has not behaved at all like IM1. 

 

 

No, IM1/SM1 played great to family crowd and IM3 so far has shown the same thing.   

[kayumanggi]

DAY 6

 

204.8 M IRON MAN lll

211.8 M THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

Edited May 9, 2013 by kayumanggi