Plain Old Tele Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I would say a 15-30M (depending on where you think it'll end up) increase, from an adjusted gross and from a breakout movie, is a pretty good achievement. I'm not trying to knock IM3's achievement at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 (edited) Well, people say that TRF2 was so hated, and if that is the case, then IM3 isn't much different. It, imo, is really not a good movie. The Avengers really helped the opening, but the film quality brought it down. The quality didn't brought it down...competition did. Look at HPDH2, 96 % at RT, you can't say that quality brought it down, yet it opened $5 million less than IM3, during the summer and enjoy IMAX and 3D for two months...not to mention that its run was extensive like many of the series. Why didn't it break $385 million with all these incentives ?. You just can't open at $169 or $174 million and pass $400 million that easy if the movie isn't LIKED by a large pannel of people. You just can't. The thing is not even 20 movies have reached $400 million. If you remove those that have been rereleased, you have like 12-15 of them...it's not easy without competition, it's damn difficult with direct competition....And most of those movies were released in the summer for obvious reasons...Others like THG crawled to it benefitting about zero serious competition for two whole months ! Edited June 5, 2013 by Ent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 $400m is a huge amount of money and obvious IM3 is a huge blockbuster. However, the OW had people realistically talking about passing TDKR, and (less realistically) talking about $500m as a goal.No one with any brain said this, honestly. The holds have been pretty good for how big it opened. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 (edited) I understand the competition thing but I don't see why competition is really that big a factor. If it was, then studios would open their films on different weekends. Competition is mitigated by holiday weekends, summer weekdays, wOM from previous films and other factors. Summer is always very competitive. I don't think competition mutes a films multiplier at all. And really, when you say competition, IM3 is also a very big competitor for other films opening too. Edited June 5, 2013 by baumer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 No one with any brain said this, honestly. The holds have been pretty good for how big it opened. With the $174m estimates, I remember a whole lot of TDKR discussion, actually. (Agreed about the holds, until recently, anyway). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 With the $174m estimates, I remember a whole lot of TDKR discussion, actually. (Agreed about the holds, until recently, anyway).Don't really see how that was ever a possibility. Would have to hold close to TA to get past it, no one ever said this would perform at that level other than maybe BKB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Don't really see how that was ever a possibility. Would have to hold close to TA to get past it, no one ever said this would perform at that level other than maybe BKB. Uh...TDKR opened $13.3m smaller than IM3 and had a weaker multiplier than TA (3.0 for TA vs. 2.8 for TDKR). That means IM3 wouldn't have needed a multiplier close to TA to reach $448m. It need a 2.57 multiplier, which isn't very close to TA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Since we're on the subject, what's IM3 looking at for a final figure now? I haven't followed dailies much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Since we're on the subject, what's IM3 looking at for a final figure now? I haven't followed dailies much at all. 400 M - 415 M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Since we're on the subject, what's IM3 looking at for a final figure now? I haven't followed dailies much at all.L Low end is barely 400, high end is 415. Depends on how much Disney gooses it with the Monsters University double feature and discount theaters later in IM3's run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 415 would be pretty good. I don't buy the competition argument, it was simply an ok film that turned out to be fairly frontloaded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 400 M - 415 M. $410m is probably closer to the upper limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I understand the competition thing but I don't see why competition is really than big a factor. If it was, then studios would open their films on different weekends. Competition is mitigated by holiday weekends, summer weekdays, wOM from previous films and other factors. Summer is always very competitive. I don't think competition mutes a films multiplier at all. And really, when you say competition, IM3 is also a very big competitor for other films opening too. Well technically, IM3 lost half of its IMAX, some 3D and a great deal of female viewers to Gatsby, 7 days only after its release. Then when STID came, all its IMAX was gone and further 3D, hence it started loosing a great deal of theaters account and some incentives to the competition while females that were en masse during the first week still went more to Gatsby. Competition like the one we have whitnessed last month has lessen the watchability and rewatchability factor of most movies because people have a limitted amount to spend on monthly. Look at THG for example, those who love that movie could have watch it and rewatch it several times during two months. Those who wanted to go to the movies without having something in mind will be inclined to watch it too because it was the only blockbuster movie that was talked about during two months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Low end is barely 400, high end is 415. Depends on how much Disney gooses it with the Monsters University double feature and discount theaters later in IM3's run. I expect just enough goosing to have Iron Man 3 finish just above Hunger Games' $408M D. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I don't think Disney cares enough, as long as it scoots past $400m (which it will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 415 would be pretty good. I don't buy the competition argument, it was simply an ok film that turned out to be fairly frontloaded. Competition is a big part of the issue, but this film still enjoyed a massive screen count and could have held up better if it was more well-liked by the audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Well technically, IM3 lost half of its IMAX, some 3D and a great deal of female viewers to Gatsby, 7 days only after its release. Then when STID came, all its IMAX was gone and further 3D, hence it started loosing a great deal of theaters account and some incentives to the competition while females that were en masse during the first week still went more to Gatsby. Competition like the one we have whitnessed last month has lessen the watchability and rewatchability factor of most movies because people have a limitted amount to spend on monthly. Look at THG for example, those who love that movie could have watch it and rewatch it several times during two months. Those who wanted to go to the movies without having something in mind will be inclined to watch it too because it was the only blockbuster movie that was talked about during two months... But again, all of what you say here is mitigated by other factors. Holiday weekends in May (they get two of them) and then summer weekdays. Summer is and always has been the most competitive time to release a film,but there are obviously good reasons why studios do so.....they make insane amounts of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Fandango tells BoxOffice that Man of Steel is outpacing all other Summer 2013 releases at the same point in the release cycle. That could be VERY good news for the Warner Bros. release. The superhero flick is today's top selling film on Fandango, putting it ahead of Friday's new releases: The Purge and The Internship. http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2013-06-05-man-of-steel-outpacing-other-summer-2013-blockbusters-on-fandango Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I know this is a Tuesday numbers thread, but since we're talking Iron Man 3, how much do people here expect it to finish with OS. If I remember correctly, it was up to $795M OS after the weekend. Are we looking at about $825M OS for a final total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
