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Jandrew

Sunday/Wknd #'s, MU 23-24/82, WWZ 17-18/66, MoS 11.7-12.3/41.2, TITE 13, NYSM 7.8 BOM, RTH

By Jandrew, in Numbers and Data

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FTF Blockbuster

FTF

Posted
Posted (edited)

64% drop for MOS. Hopefully next week is better. The Heat and WHD won't open ad big as MU and WWZ so I can see a less than 50% drop.

Hopefully...but even though TH and WHD won't open anywhere as big, MU and WWZ will still be there so now it's 4 movies for MOS to compete with :/ Edited by FTF
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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

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Stupid WB costing themselves millions yet again. If they had given MO Pacific Rims date, MOS opens the same 128m total but probably falls in the 52-54% range max. That said: All four of the openers over the past 2 weeks have exceeded expectations, and the combined opening weekends are like 290 million. That is completely astounding for mid june.

The sequel will get a better slot, I think July or December will be most likely.
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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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The Big 3 Wildcards of Summer 2013WWZ: SuccessLone Ranger: ?Pacific Rim: ?I think Lone Ranger and Pacific Rim will shock people like WWZ did. I see the 2 films doing big numbers. People are getting tired of sequels. They are flocking to more original films like WWZ and MoS, a reboot. Both Pacific Rim and Lone Ranger will definently won't win July, that'll go to DM 2. But I think both films can cross 200M+ domestically.

While I agree both Lone Ranger and Pacific RIm will perform better than many seem to expect at the box office, I do not agree that audiences have grown weary of sequels. Iron Man Three will likely finish with $410M, Into Darkness $225M, Furious 6 $240M and Monsters U. $275M+. Not to mention, Despicable Me 2 has an outside chance of being the second highest grossing movie of the summer blockbuster season. Sequels, and a re-imagining of the most recognizable superhero property, have dominated thus far.

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Ent Box Office Gold

Ent

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The problem that MOS will have to face versus The Hobbit is that it had a double threat every weekend for 4,5 consecutive weeks.

WWZ and MU now, The Heat and White House Down next week, then DM2 and Lone Rangers, then Pacific Rim and Grown Ups2, ect...

 

It will have to face 2 newcomers and 2 freshly released potential blockbusters at the same time, each weekend with sequels thrown in the mix which by essence are frontloaded and take a bigger share of the weekend grosses.

 

That's when wom and GA reception play a large role.  That's why movies like STID were able to resist more when facing big competition such as, Gatsby FF6, EPIC and Hangovers 3 whereas a movie like Hangover 3 plumetted quickly.

 

And in that higly competitive environment, if you are not competitively strong enough, if people just jump to the new movie as soon as it is released instead of rewatching yours, it's because wom is average at best.  You only rewatch a movie facing competition if you have the feeling that this movie is better than what the competition propose as another option...

 

The worst case secnarios MOS and all the new releases will have to face is that highly competitive test.  The most volatile movie, the least competitive one will lose quicker its theater counts to make room for the weekly double threat and lose opportunities to generate more bucks. 

 

I beleive overall legs will be cut short for many movies in the next two weeks.

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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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Posted

MAN OF STEEL: $41.22M Weekend (est) / $210.01M Domestic Total / 4,207 Locations / $9,797 Location Avg. #ManOfSteelIf you take Walmart numbers out of the equation, MOS is doing very similar numbers to TASM's second weekend, which makes me think that my $265m-$295m prediction is correct. Knowing it's pacing with $10m more than TASM and that will face a plethora of new blockbuster releases in the upcoming weeks, I'm streamlining my prediction to $270m-$285m DOM.

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ban1o Blockbuster

ban1o

Posted
Posted (edited)

The problem that MOS will have to face versus The Hobbit is that it had a double threat every weekend for 4,5 consecutive weeks.

WWZ and MU now, The Heat and White House Down next week, then DM2 and Lone Rangers, then Pacific Rim and Grown Ups2, ect...

 

It will have to face 2 newcomers and 2 freshly released potential blockbusters at the same time, each weekend with sequels thrown in the mix which by essence are frontloaded and take a bigger share of the weekend grosses.

 

That's when wom and GA reception play a large role.  That's why movies like STID were able to resist more when facing big competition such as, Gatsby FF6, EPIC and Hangovers 3 whereas a movie like Hangover 3 plumetted quickly.

 

And in that higly competitive environment, if you are not competitively strong enough, if people just jump to the new movie as soon as it is released instead of rewatching yours, it's because wom is average at best.  You only rewatch a movie facing competition if you have the feeling that this movie is better than what the competition propose as another option...

 

The worst case secnarios MOS and all the new releases will have to face is that highly competitive test.  The most volatile movie, the least competitive one will lose quicker its theater counts to make room for the weekly double threat and lose opportunities to generate more bucks. 

 

I beleive overall legs will be cut short for many movies in the next two weeks.

I agree that the WOM is obviously not as great as some people here seem to think. A movie with great WOM would be able to withstand competition. However 2 65+ openers definitely hurt it. 

Edited by ban1o
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hasanahmad Box Office Gold

hasanahmad

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Posted

The problem that MOS will have to face versus The Hobbit is that it had a double threat every weekend for 4,5 consecutive weeks.

WWZ and MU now, The Heat and White House Down next week, then DM2 and Lone Rangers, then Pacific Rim and Grown Ups2, ect...

 

It will have to face 2 newcomers and 2 freshly released potential blockbusters at the same time, each weekend with sequels thrown in the mix which by essence are frontloaded and take a bigger share of the weekend grosses.

 

That's when wom and GA reception play a large role.  That's why movies like STID were able to resist more when facing big competition such as, Gatsby FF6, EPIC and Hangovers 3 whereas a movie like Hangover 3 plumetted quickly.

 

And in that higly competitive environment, if you are not competitively strong enough, if people just jump to the new movie as soon as it is released instead of rewatching yours, it's because wom is average at best.  You only rewatch a movie facing competition if you have the feeling that this movie is better than what the competition propose as another option...

 

The worst case secnarios MOS and all the new releases will have to face is that highly competitive test.  The most volatile movie, the least competitive one will lose quicker its theater counts to make room for the weekly double threat and lose opportunities to generate more bucks. 

 

I beleive overall legs will be cut short for many movies in the next two weeks.

 

So Pacific Rim should have switched dates with MoS?

 

 

This was a calculated risk by WB. If the dates were switched a new (even if well reviewed) Pacific rim would have been destroyed in the Box office while they knew MoS had a past following which could have it open big and somewhat sustain enough for the sequel. Pacific rim is a new franchise and they need no competition for it

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Hiccup Summer Tentpole

Hiccup

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Lone Ranger looks Bland but Pacific Rim might be the biggest movie of 2013 is WB kicks up its marketing.

 

Pacific Rim won't be the biggest movie of 2013 and it doesn't even have a chance. 150M is the max. The trailer has gotten so so attention from people outside these box office forums. When I saw the trailer in front of Man of Steel and World War Z the audiences was either silent or giggled a bit at the stupid rally speech. 

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