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CJohn

Wednesday Numbers | Despicable Me 2 - 34M | The Lone Ranger - 9.67M | Kevin Hart - 4.9M

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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Some early projecting...

 

Despicable Me 2

 

Wed: $34.3m (incl. previews)

Thu: $29.1m (-15.1%)

Fri: $35.53m (+22%)
Sat: $33.5m (-5.7%)

Sun: $25.46m (-24%)

5-day: $157.9 million

 

The Lone Ranger

 

Wed: $9.668m (incl. previews)

Thu: $8.0m (-17.1%)

Fri: $9.72m (+21.5%)

Sat: $9.0m (-7.5%)

Sun: $6.65m (-26%)

5-day: $43.0 million

 

I could still see TLR being more backloaded than I've accounted for here, getting it above $45m for the 5-day... but I'm just not sure that will happen. If it can't hit $10m on opening day with previews included, that's a really bad sign in conjunction with its WOM so far.

 

As for DM2, a lot could happen. I can see dropping more along the lines of 17-19% on Thursday, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt due to the sheer nature of its appeal. Conversely, it has a decent shot at $160m for the 5-day but I'd rather stay under that for the time being.

 

The inclusion of previews in both films' opening day figures really skews what the potential Thursday drops will be in relation to 2002 when the calendar last fell this way (July 4th on Thursday). Overall, Men In Black 2 made 4.69x its opening day over the 5-day frame. I think DM2 goes a little over that, potentially as high as Ice Age 3's 4.84x in 2009. The calendar fell differently that year, but, it's still a close enough ratio to consider for DM2.

 

Based on a minimum of $150m over the 5-day, the nature of animated films to leg out longer than something like MIB2, etc., I have a hard time not seeing DM2 pass $375 million domestically. If it does hit the upper end of the above projection, $400+ million is within reach.

 

As for TLR... Disney should just be hoping for $100 million domestically at this point. I'm not sure it gets there without topping $46-48m over the 5-day.

 

All of that said... these are early projections. A lot can still change, and regardless of $140m or $160m for DM2, it's a monster success.

Edited by ShawnMR
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#ED Global Phenomenon

#ED

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I was thinking if the Friday bump is big, than a Sat decrease will happen.What can we expect today for WWZ, WHD and MoS? Action movies get bumps on July 4th.

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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

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Some early projecting...Despicable Me 2Wed: $34.3m (incl. previews)Thu: $29.1m (-15.1%)Fri: $35.53m (+22%)Sat: $33.5m (-5.7%)Sun: $25.46m (-24%)5-day: $157.9 millionThe Lone RangerWed: $9.668m (incl. previews)Thu: $8.0m (-17.1%)Fri: $9.72m (+21.5%)Sat: $9.0m (-7.5%)Sun: $6.65m (-26%)5-day: $43.0 millionI could still see TLR being more backloaded than I've accounted for here, getting it above $45m for the 5-day... but I'm just not sure that will happen. If it can hit $10m on opening day with previews included, that's a really bad sign in conjunction with its WOM so far.As for DM2, a lot could happen. I can see dropping more along the lines of 17-19% on Thursday, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt due to the sheer nature of its appeal. Conversely, it has a decent shot at $160m for the 5-day but I'd rather stay under that for the time being.The inclusion of previews in both films' opening day figures really skews what the potential Thursday drops will be in relation to 2002 when the calendar last fell this way (July 4th on Thursday). Overall, Men In Black 2 made 4.69x its opening day over the 5-day frame. I think DM2 goes a little over that, potentially as high as Ice Age 3's 4.84x in 2009. The calendar fell differently that year, but, it's still a close enough ratio to consider for DM2.Based on a minimum of $150m over the 5-day, the nature of animated films to leg out longer than something like MIB2, etc., I have a hard time not seeing DM2 pass $375 million domestically. If it does hit the upper end of the above projection, $400+ million is within reach.As for TLR... Disney should just be hoping for $100 million domestically at this point. I'm not sure it gets there without topping $46-48m over the 5-day.All of that said... these are early projections. A lot can still change, and regardless of $140m or $160m for DM2, it's a monster success.

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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

Posted
Posted

Some early projecting...Despicable Me 2Wed: $34.3m (incl. previews)Thu: $29.1m (-15.1%)Fri: $35.53m (+22%)Sat: $33.5m (-5.7%)Sun: $25.46m (-24%)5-day: $157.9 millionThe Lone RangerWed: $9.668m (incl. previews)Thu: $8.0m (-17.1%)Fri: $9.72m (+21.5%)Sat: $9.0m (-7.5%)Sun: $6.65m (-26%)5-day: $43.0 millionI could still see TLR being more backloaded than I've accounted for here, getting it above $45m for the 5-day... but I'm just not sure that will happen. If it can hit $10m on opening day with previews included, that's a really bad sign in conjunction with its WOM so far.As for DM2, a lot could happen. I can see dropping more along the lines of 17-19% on Thursday, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt due to the sheer nature of its appeal. Conversely, it has a decent shot at $160m for the 5-day but I'd rather stay under that for the time being.The inclusion of previews in both films' opening day figures really skews what the potential Thursday drops will be in relation to 2002 when the calendar last fell this way (July 4th on Thursday). Overall, Men In Black 2 made 4.69x its opening day over the 5-day frame. I think DM2 goes a little over that, potentially as high as Ice Age 3's 4.84x in 2009. The calendar fell differently that year, but, it's still a close enough ratio to consider for DM2.Based on a minimum of $150m over the 5-day, the nature of animated films to leg out longer than something like MIB2, etc., I have a hard time not seeing DM2 pass $375 million domestically. If it does hit the upper end of the above projection, $400+ million is within reach.As for TLR... Disney should just be hoping for $100 million domestically at this point. I'm not sure it gets there without topping $46-48m over the 5-day.All of that said... these are early projections. A lot can still change, and regardless of $140m or $160m for DM2, it's a monster success.

you always deliver the bestgreat analysis
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ecstasy Global Phenomenon

ecstasy

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I've been looking at it for a few hours already, but that LR number is still blowing my mind. 

 

It's so sickening. Wasted all of that money on that movie, lol. I can't even poke fun at it because it just seems so disgusting. The movie was already doomed with that budget and then to make a mediocre (so they say) film is just ridiculous. But that's Disney. Hope that kind of ridiculous spending is in the past. I know it's not my money but still, lol.

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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you always deliver the bestgreat analysis

 

Thanks. Just my two cents, we'll see how the next few days play out. :)

Edited by ShawnMR
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The Futurist Global Phenomenon

The Futurist

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Disney has now had three mega-bombs in a row: Mars Needs Moms in 2011, John Carter in 2012 and Lone Ranger in 2013! 

 

True and nobody likes to loose money but with Marvel, Pixar & Star Wars, not sure they are too worried about the future.

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