Weekend Estimates: Gravity - 55.5M; CWACM - $21.5M ;RR - 7.6M;

[bapi]

I think we should all take a deep breath.  Gravity is doing very well, but 300?  Come on, let's see if it can get to 200 first.

Yeah. Still don't know why it should make more than Inception.

[Blankments]

This week in film theory:

 

Gravity - 20M

Runner Runner - 17M

 

Great to see Gravity's weekend start so well!

 

Can't wait for tomorrow when we discuss the B.O. numbers in class.

[grey ghost]

Any guesses how much Gravity will make overseas and worldwide?

[grey ghost]

Yeah. Still don't know why it should make more than Inception.

 

 

Yeah, no way Gravity gets legs better than Inception without a mind-fuck ending that demands a repeat viewings.

[RichWS]

Yeah, no way Gravity gets legs better than Inception without a mind-fuck ending that demands a repeat viewings.

 

I think the experience of this film will cause plenty of repeat viewings. I can't remember the last film I saw twice in theaters, but I wanna see this again ASAP.

[bapi]

Any guesses how much Gravity will make overseas and worldwide?

Absolute minimum: 180M DOM and 240M OS

[Jake Gittes]

300 isn't out of the question (and would be a stunning result), but yeah, better at least wait for the second weekend. If it has a $75m opening week and a $40m second weekend, it'll have a shot. We need to remember that $300m would take a 5.5x multiplier, and even recent films as broadly crowd-pleasing as Inception and HTTYD couldn't manage that. Among films that weren't aided by holidays in their first couple weeks of release, only The Hangover, Taken, Bridesmaids, The Help and Argo immediately spring to mind that made it. All opened lower than Gravity (the latter four WAY lower), and four out of five had summer weekdays on their side. Basically, unless it just pulls an Avatar and has sub-10% drops in the next few weeks, it's gonna be a long, hard battle. Personally, right now the highest gross I'm comfortable predicting is around $260m.

[baumer]

You guys are expecting a 25-30% drop next weekend?  I don't know people, that's tough to pull off. 

[Blankments]

Leg projections:

 

Avatar: 548.5M (just for fun)

The Blind Side: 416.7M

Jurassic Park: 395.4M

Apollo 13: 337.0M

Ocean's Eleven: 267.4M

Hugo: 266.4M

Inception: 258.9M

The Matrix: 255.0M

Life of Pi: 227.1M

Children of Men: 167.1M

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: 148.0M

127 Hours: 75.4M

[The Stingray]

Sadly I foresee meltdowns.

[Michael Gary Scott]

You all should just enjoy the ride and not obsess about its legs

[filmnerdjamie]

You guys are expecting a 25-30% drop next weekend?  I don't know people, that's tough to pull off. 

 

I hate reality too.

[Blankments]

You all should just enjoy the ride and not obsess about its legs

 

I do leg projections for any movie I care about

 

I wonder how many theaters will actually carry Ender's Game in IMAX if this is still going strong later this month... This is honestly the first movie in a long time I think people will say you have to see in 3D.

[Jake Gittes]

You guys are expecting a 25-30% drop next weekend?  I don't know people, that's tough to pull off. 

I think a sub-35% drop is very possible. 25-30% is less possible, but could happen. Sub-25% I'm not counting out entirely, but it seems really unlikely. 

[dashrendar44]

lol. Its got 75% on rotten tomatoes.

 

Killer Klowns from Outer Space's title promises darkly goofy fun -- and more often than not, the movie delivers.

 

Killer Klowns from Outer Space shows Robert Rodriguez how to do a B-movie parody right.

[lilmac]

You all should just enjoy the ride and not obsess about its legs

 

 

Indeed.  #1 October OW and highest grossing October release.  Wow, what a treat!

[dashrendar44]

Anyone got a little bit Avatar-type of excitement? I mean, both came in sight with very low expectations and both broke out big with out-of-the-world WOM.

 

A underdog story is always enjoyable, particularly when it shines.

 

Not at all, Gravity was a critic darling before its release. Avatar didn't get Mostra's praise and so forth. Avatar was that big question-mark more destined to be one of the biggest flops ever made.

 

Before release, Gravity had always that "masterpiece in the making" stamp on it and built its hype on that through festivals and advance screenings presentations setting more and more buzz in motion until the final release. No one had really seen Avatar in its entirety before the release date.

Edited October 6, 2013 by dashrendar44

[Jandrew]

Pretty much called Gravity, lets see if Cap Phil can get #2 and if these awards predicts come true. I knew this October would be special. http://jaysonb593.blogspot.com/2013/09/octobers-very-own.html The highest grossing October movie im sure is Meet the Parents at $166M. Not only can Gravity break a 13 year old record, it can leave all other October movies in the dust with atleast a $40M margin. Still early, but things are looking good for Gravity, and the month as a whole.

[lilmac]

Not at all, Gravity was a critic darling before its release. Avatar didn't get Mostra's praise and so forth. Avatar was that big question-mark more destined to be one of the biggest flops ever made.

 

Before release, Gravity had always that "masterpiece in the making" stamp on it and built its hype on that through festivals and advance screenings presentations setting more and more buzz in motion until the final release. No one had really seen Avatar in its entirety before the release date.

 

 

Disagree.  There was high critical praise but I didn't get the sense that it would fill theaters.  Many people expected sub-$40m.  I would not have been surprised if it had gross $30-35, that would have been about right.

[iceroll]

Leg projections:

 

Avatar: 548.5M (just for fun)

The Blind Side: 416.7M

Jurassic Park: 395.4M

Apollo 13: 337.0M

Ocean's Eleven: 267.4M

Hugo: 266.4M

Inception: 258.9M

The Matrix: 255.0M

Life of Pi: 227.1M

Children of Men: 167.1M

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: 148.0M

127 Hours: 75.4M

What how?