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2011 Best Picture Predicts

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Tree of Life is nowhere near locked. It's very, very divisive and it's buzz right now is minimal.

For a film to get nominated doesn't need consensus. It needs rabid support for a part of the Academy. Remember the importance of n.1 votes this year.

Anyways, NYFCC gave it many awards, and it's been nominated in the Satellite awards. Both good precursors. Also, Cannes. And, to make it easier: it's Pitt year (Moneyball) and Malick is very well loved by the Academy branch. Do you remember how they loved TTRL? And that was also a very divisive film with even less suporters. So... LOCKED.

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The Satellite Awards nominate everything that isn't hidden in a bunker under NORAD. Being nominated by them is just an acknowledgement that you exist.

The Thin Red Line was far less divisive than Tree of Life is and had plenty of precursor awards and nominations (such as WINNING BP/BD at the Satellite Awards). Furthermore Pitt's team will push Moneyball ahead of Tree of Life because it has the buzz for Actor and Screenplay where Tree of Life doesn't, it has the box office where Tree of Life doesn't, etc. Chastain's team will push her for The Help more than Tree of Life for the same reasons pretty much. Fox Searchlight, its studio, will be giving its A-game to The Descendants, and its B-game to make Shame and Martha Marcy May Marlene relevant enough for a sneak attack at the Oscars.

So...NOT LOCKED

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  • Founder / Operator

I don't get it. What does WB hope to gain from this? Certainly not more DVD/BD sales, since Harry Potter has already sold most of what it is going to sell. It won't gain another $100M in DVD sales because of this. So, what does WB have to gain? Why?

Bragging rights. Its what the industry half-based on, after all. :)

Plus, I'm sure they legitimately care about getting their cast and crew recognized for the decade's worth of unprecedented work they did. It was never perfect, but to do as well as they did over the course of eight films is pretty stunning.

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After about two weeks since the last chart...

1. The Descendants (-)

2. The Artist (-)

3. War Horse (-)

4. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (+2)

5. Moneyball (-1)

6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (+1)

7. Midnight In Paris (-2)

8. Hugo (+1)

9. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (-1)

10. The Help (+1)

11. Margin Call (-1)

12. The Tree Of Life (+2)

13. Young Adult (-1)

14. Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (-1)

15. Drive (+1)

16. My Week With Marilyn (+2)

17. Win Win (NEW)

18. Take Shelter (NEW)

19. The Iron Lady (NEW)

20. In The Land Of Blood & Honey (-5)

ATM, It's between the top 4, IMO.

Edited by Spaghetti
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