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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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I'm beginning to think Unbroken may end up similar to Les Miserables, War Horse, Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Blind Side, etc.  Things that seemed incredibly competitive on paper only to fall flat when it came time for the actual awards.

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I'm beginning to think Unbroken may end up similar to Les Miserables, War Horse, Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Blind Side, etc.  Things that seemed incredibly competitive on paper only to fall flat when it came time for the actual awards.

 

Ehh.... I have faith. It will get better reviews, I think (or at least I hope)

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I also get the vibe that if Unbroken is just agreeable for critics and doesn't bomb in theaters it will be close to unbeatable. Aside from the big names collaborators, Jolie's status in the industry and the oscarbaity story it might have another advantage totally unrelated to the movie. In recent oscar seasons there's always the backlash against that traditional safe movie that plays to the older crowds. The un-hip choice who is pandering, self-important and just what those old white farts want to award instead of something fresh and exciting. Some times this kind of backlash can mean nothing in the end (King's Speech), others it can drive sure bets to the ground (Lincoln). But my point is that Unbroken seemsto have a good chance to escape this backlash because of Imitation Game and the Theory of Everything. If those two were slammed by critics out of the gate (like Osage County, Extremely Loud, Butler) on their way to a couple of obligatory nominations, Unbroken would have end up in an oscar conversation against movies like Birdman, Boyhood, Gone Girl, Foxcatcher etc which would make it the most obvious un-hip contender. But the two british biopics are well-recieved enough to be considered contenders at least up until the nominations anouncement. And they seem much more easy targets with the King's Speech connection and all to recieve all of the "those old farts hate challenging movies" backlash. Leaving Unbroken be the easiest more comfortable choice that no one really hates.

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Unbroken is gonna SLAYYYY. First critical reactions are leaking on twitter and all very good. HFPA is eating it up.

Okay. Let's get something straight here. critical reactions on Twitter are always very good,and of course the HFPA is eating it up. It's fucking Jolie and they're the biggest ducking starfuckers on the planet. They'll nominate her for anything, probably even Maleficent if it gets pushed Musical/Comedy

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HFPA, AMPAS, whatever, I'm saying that after all the sniggering and War Horse comparisons, "universal hiding a turkey", the reviews that come out next week are actually gonna be quite solid and Jolie will be coming for everyone's weave. If the movie sucked they would embargo until the actual release.

 

We hope. Les Mis didn't get great reviews and it wasn't embargoed until release...

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Actually it would make, thematically at least, an interesting back-to-back punch. 12 Years shows where we've been, Selma shows where we've traveled, and next year a film to be named rounds out the trilogy by showing where we are or are going.

Ferguson:A Step Back.

Coming Soon.

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HFPA, AMPAS, whatever, I'm saying that after all the sniggering and War Horse comparisons, "universal hiding a turkey", the reviews that come out next week are actually gonna be quite solid and Jolie will be coming for everyone's weave. If the movie sucked they would embargo until the actual release.

50% as of now, Unbroken seems to have broken its Oscar chances and Jolie can go back to acting.

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1. Selma

2. Birdman

3. Boyhood

4. The Imitation Game

5. Gone Girl

6. Into the Woods

7. The Theory of Everything

8. The Grand Budapest Hotel

9. Interstellar

10. Mr. Turner/Whiplash

Since Unbroken is apparently bland

 

It may be bland, but it isn't missing. 

 

I'm thinking 

 

  1. Selma
  2. The Imitation Game
  3. Boyhood
  4. Birdman
  5. Into the Woods
  6. Unbroken
  7. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  8. Theory of Everything
  9. Gone Girl 

9 Nominees. Mr. Turner, Whiplash and Still Alice on the outside looking in. 

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Hmm, you know Selma is in good shape when the only argument people have against it winning is "but they gave it to a movie about black people last year!"

That's actually a pretty strong argument. I think the Academy sees Civil Rights and Slavery as one and the same. To them, they feel like they have acknowledged the issue and now it is time to move onto something else.

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Also don't forget all those Holocaust jokes when it comes to OScars, remember Kate Winslet, she was a guest in a tv show that made fun of how an holocaust movie movie was the only way to get awards.

Guess what happened to Winslet a few years later ... she definitely put the i in Irony.

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Also don't forget all those Holocaust jokes when it comes to OScars, remember Kate Winslet, she was a guest in a tv show that made fun of how an holocaust movie movie was the only way to get awards.

Guess what happened to Winslet a few years later ... she definitely put the i in Irony.

 

AMPAS just loves those holocaust/ww2/east+west Germany films. :lol: remember when Das Leben der Anderen won over El labarinto del fauno and when there was talk that In Darkness would beat A Separation based on a few pundit's anecdotal experiences. 

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Still on Team Fury or Team Galaxy, even if neither is happening! :P (or Team Unbroken, though its likely to un pc for them given the background of the guy)

Considering how two years ago, Best Director went to a film about an uber-religious kid having a spiritual experience at sea....

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