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Impact

Best Supporting Actress-2014 predicts!

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this may help?

I should join then  :D

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This is the category I'm expecting a major shake up in come Thursday morning. No one seems "locked" for the nom outside of Arquette this year. Outside of her, the momentum has been all over the place for any of the other women in contention this year. Instead of the 5 ladies nominated at the Globes and mostly assumed to be nominated at the Oscars, what if  the category looks something like this instead:

 

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

Laura Dern - Wild

Rene Russo - Nightcrawler

Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer

Carmen Ejogo or Adriana Barazza for Selma/Cake

 

Russo and Dern have picked up steam, and in a lot of ways should be locks if the Academy is looking objectively. They're also both more established actresses who have never been given much due in the awards world, which is something the Academy often likes to acknowledge. The Academy loves Swinton and I think the only reason her fate in this category seems so bleak is because enough of them may not have seen Snowpiercer. If enough have though, I think she's gonna surprise everyone and get in. She's an Oscar darling and it's a fantastic and above all memorable performance. The other two are far bigger long shots, but if the Academy does decide to show Selma a lot of love Ejogo could ride the wave. She's certainly not undeserving. Similarly, Barazza could ride Aniston's coattails to a nom in a similar way Sally Hawkins got in for Blue Jasmine last  year. At any rate, I think out of Chastain, Streep, Stone, and Knightley only two of those four at most are actually going to get in. I think the other two will be from those five more dark horse contenders.

Edited by MovieMan89
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They love swinton? Oscar darling? She won once when it was kinda a weak year in the category (it was either her or Ruby Dee, who won sag, for doing nothing in american gangster) and has been ignored ever since. Even We Need To Talk About Kevin, which I think was the best performance of that year, saw her snubbed, despite being nominated everywhere else. And she was the best part of Snowpiercer, but it just isn't their movie.

 

I am predicting Rene Russo at the moment, and I don't think it's that crazy, considering there's been good guild love for nightcrawler and she got a bafta nomination.

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With that said though...I have no clue who will win this, and this is the one cat I am the least confident in my choices in. (Watch me now ironically get all 5 right in this)

Patricia Arquette. Signed, sealed, delivered.

 

She's such a frontrunner that I feel like this category is bound to have a !shock! nomination.

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I thought you just said you were predicting Russo a few posts ago, unless if I misread that :P

(Which I found odd as she isn't nominated for a Globes or a SAG)

 

Okay you were predicting for the 5th slot I suppose :P

Edited by Impact
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Oh, I meant for one of those 'surprise nominations' that movieman was talking about. though I don't think it's that much of a surprise.

 

if there's a "woah, I didn't see that coming!" nomination here on thursday, I'm calling it as Naomi Watts in Birdman (not actually predicting this... that's why it's a surprise I guess)

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Oh okay-now that makes sense. Goes to show when you only get part of the convo.

(I was even thinking what is she even in)

 

Anyway actress I think is a really big who knows will win.

 

Of course we should wait till the nominees are announced.

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They love swinton? Oscar darling? She won once when it was kinda a weak year in the category (it was either her or Ruby Dee, who won sag, for doing nothing in american gangster) and has been ignored ever since. Even We Need To Talk About Kevin, which I think was the best performance of that year, saw her snubbed, despite being nominated everywhere else. And she was the best part of Snowpiercer, but it just isn't their movie.

 

I am predicting Rene Russo at the moment, and I don't think it's that crazy, considering there's been good guild love for nightcrawler and she got a bafta nomination.

Oh wow, I totally thought Swinton had like 3 or 4 Oscar noms for some reason. I guess I was thinking of the Globes or the SAG or something.

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Likely final:

Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game

Emma Stone for Birdman

Meryl Streep for Into the Woods

 

Alt: Laura Dern for Wild

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