Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[Olive]

Most Popular Films For Period Weekend, December 8 - 11, 2016 WIR = Weeks In Release
No	WIR	Title	$	%	Total $
1	4	FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM (M), WARNER BROS [393/ $5,640]	2,216,619	-32%	26,752,555
2	2	TROLLS (G), FOX [487/ $4,467]	2,175,359	-14%	7,249,429
3	1	OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY (MA15+), ENTERTAINMENT ONE [418/ $5,045]	2,108,694	N/A	2,207,225
4	2	UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS (MA15+), SONY PICTURES [278/ $2,699]	750,352	-51%	2,888,281
5	6	HACKSAW RIDGE (MA15+), ICON [204/ $2,375]	484,524	19%	7,214,167
6	5	ARRIVAL (M), ROADSHOW [186/ $2,306]	428,909	-26%	6,965,237
7	7	DOCTOR STRANGE (M), WALT DISNEY [142/ $2,146]	304,753	-36%	20,493,807
8	3	THE FOUNDER (M), ROADSHOW [220/ $1,342]	295,193	-47%	2,376,997
9	6	THE ACCOUNTANT (MA15+), WARNER BROS [83/ $1,928]	160,023	-36%	5,800,910
10	3	YOUR NAME (PG), MADMAN [29/ $4,061]	117,755	-32%	882,069
11	3	BAD SANTA 2 (MA15+), MADMAN [143/ $786]	112,376	-63%	1,367,977
12	1	BEFIKRE (M), MINDBLOWING FILMS [28/ $3,937]	110,229	N/A	110,229
13	6	THE LIGHT BETWEEN OCEANS (M), ENTERTAINMENT ONE [122/ $805]	98,235	-30%	2,995,145
14	5	NOCTURNAL ANIMALS (MA15+), UNIVERSAL [42/ $1,822]	76,523	-18%	1,707,667
15	2	QUEEN OF KATWE (PG), WALT DISNEY [95/ $783]	74,347	-38%	288,306
16	4	I, DANIEL BLAKE (MA15+), TRANSMISSION [36/ $1,532]	55,155	-25%	563,089
17	3	THE FENCER (PG), PALACE [19/ $2,705]	51,393	-18%	292,366
18	PR	ROSALIE BLUM (M), PALACE [18/ $2,658]	47,848	N/A	315,483
19	1	SWORD MASTER (MA15+), CHINALION FILM [10/ $3,386]	33,860	N/A	33,860
20	2	UP FOR LOVE (M), ICON [41/ $788]	32,313	-41%	127,144

[MrHardapple]

Great for Hacksaw Ridge!

The Awards generated new interest I guess.

[DeeCee]

On 12/17/2015 at 7:09 PM, Ball Lightning said:

$2.12m for midnights last night! Absolutely insane!

 

On 12/17/2015 at 9:13 PM, Doctor Rth and his FBeasts said:

It's a lot more insane than that #  

 

On 12/18/2015 at 9:22 AM, Doctor Rth and his FBeasts said:

It will go over 9.2 how much yet to be determined, midnights screw tracking , its already +30% over previous OD Record held by DH2 and +67% higher than previous  record Thursday and +56% higher than previous December OD record (of cause Boxing day nat holiday)

 

On 12/18/2015 at 5:35 PM, Doctor Rth and his FBeasts said:

9.420m still be some adjustment 937scrs 

Here is TFA from last year.

 

@Doctor Rth and his FBeastsWhat was the final midnight number for TFA?

Edited December 13, 2016 by DeeCee

[DeeCee]

As of 2:30pm today the midnight sessions at Event George St have sold roughly AUD35,000 worth of tickets.  That's roughly 750 at a 3D VMAX session, 165 in Gold Class, 400 in regular 2D and 40 in regular 3D.  

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinema/George-Street#date=2016-12-15

 

If we assume TFA sold more for midnight last year.  Let's say $45,000 at George St that means roughly 2% of the midnight gross for TFA came from George St.  

 

$35,000 x 50 gives us $1,750,000 in nationwide ticket sales for midnight.  

 

Even if 3% of the gross comes from George St alone that means midnight ticket sales are on track to be over $1.1 million.

 

I'm thinking they'll be a t least AUD1.5 million leading into an full opening day of at least AUD5.5 million.

[DeeCee]

Midnights please. 

 

Anyone?

[DeeCee]

No word on midnights yet for R1 but FB run at the top ended early. Trolls pipped it for the full week. 

 

 

[Rthmessiah]

I literally have no time atm

 

R1 basically doing about  1/2 of TFA see how end of day shapes up.

 

[DeeCee]

Thank you. 

 

That means roughly $4.5-5m. 

 

$4m per day over the weekend puts around $17m. 

 

And I loved it. Truly wonderful. That last act. Wow!

Edited December 15, 2016 by DeeCee

[James]

4 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

That means roughly $4.5-5m. 

 

$4m per day over the weekend puts around $17m. 

 

And I loved it. Truly wonderful. That last act. Wow!

Did TFA open on a Friday?

[JJ-8]

45 minutes ago, James said:

Did TFA open on a Friday?

Both open on Thursday here. 

 

About to head in to watch at chermside now

[DeeCee]

Rth is suggesting a $4.7m opening day. 

 

However, I hope it can get closer to $5.5m. 

 

[hw64]

1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

Rth is suggesting a $4.7m opening day. 

 

However, I hope it can get closer to $5.5m. 

 

 

If it turns out to be the case that Rogue One's opening day/weekend makes 50% of TFA's opening day/weekend, then you'll be predicting $124m for the US opening weekend using your method, I assume?

[baumer]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

If it turns out to be the case that Rogue One's opening day/weekend makes 50% of TFA's opening day/weekend, then you'll be predicting $124m for the US opening weekend using your method, I assume?

 

I'm curious about that too.

 

Unless we are assuming that R1 will be less frontloaded that E7

[George Parr]

Going by an older post from the Under 450 million club, that is indeed the assumption. TFA had an absolutely insane opening day, which led to a relatively low weekend multiplier, even when the other days broke records as well. A 4.7 million opening day would still be in line with what amounts to as an opening of at least 150 million domestically.

 

Quoting from that post:

 

"Opening Day Australia in AUD

 

Under AUD3.5m - It's all over.  @Christmas Baumer was right

3.5-4m - It will be close.  Should open USD140-150m Domestic and it will all be down to legs.

4-4.5m - This club is looking very shakey.  

Over 4.5m - @Christmas Baumer is wrong.  This club is dead."

[hw64]

49 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Going by an older post from the Under 450 million club, that is indeed the assumption. TFA had an absolutely insane opening day, which led to a relatively low weekend multiplier, even when the other days broke records as well. A 4.7 million opening day would still be in line with what amounts to as an opening of at least 150 million domestically.

 

Quoting from that post:

 

"Opening Day Australia in AUD

 

Under AUD3.5m - It's all over.  @Christmas Baumer was right

3.5-4m - It will be close.  Should open USD140-150m Domestic and it will all be down to legs.

4-4.5m - This club is looking very shakey.  

Over 4.5m - @Christmas Baumer is wrong.  This club is dead."

 

Let me do some math. TFA had an opening day of $9.4m AUD in Australia, and an opening weekend of $27.2m AUD.

 

DeeCee assumes the same opening weekend in Australia (in AUD) to opening weekend in the US (in USD) ratio for Rogue One as for TFA. That ratio for TFA was 1:9.12 ish.

 

So, working back from an assumed opening weekend of $150m USD in the US, that would be an opening weekend of $16.45m AUD in Australia.

 

Given a $4.7m AUD opening day for Rogue One in Australia, it would need a 3.5x multiplier to achieve that amount. TFA's multiplier was 2.89.

 

Not out of the question, but given that modern Star Wars is historically front-loaded, I don't expect the multiplier to shift that much.

 

As a note, just because I've done these calculations, doesn't mean I agree with the assumption that the AUS:US ratio for Rogue One is going to be the same as it was for TFA. My stance hasn't chance from the other thread in that regard.

[George Parr]

How exactly is modern Star Wars "historically frontloaded"?

I really don't see any proof for that. Nor do I see any reason to assume that the multiplier won't be different. Multipliers get lower the higher a movie starts, TFA was annihilating all the old records, it didn't get more extreme than that movie, its multiplier was low even with record numbers for every day of the weekend. You can't just take the disadvantages of one way and combine it with the disadvantages of another way, while completely ignoring the advantages.

 

It was TFA's historic record numbers that directly caused a low multiplier. That doesn't mean that another Star Wars movie with a lower start would follow the same multiplier, on the contrary, statistics would say otherwise. You basically say that Rogue One cannot match TFA's numbers (true) but then opt to use its multiplier for Rogue One for some reason, which doesn't make any sense, because that multiplier is directly caused by TFA's numbers, not by being Star Wars.

[hw64]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

How exactly is modern Star Wars "historically frontloaded"?

I really don't see any proof for that. Nor do I see any reason to assume that the multiplier won't be different. Multipliers get lower the higher a movie starts, TFA was annihilating all the old records, it didn't get more extreme than that movie, its multiplier was low even with record numbers for every day of the weekend. You can't just take the disadvantages of one way and combine it with the disadvantages of another way, while completely ignoring the advantages.

 

It was TFA's historic record numbers that directly caused a low multiplier. That doesn't mean that another Star Wars movie with a lower start would follow the same multiplier, on the contrary, statistics would say otherwise. You basically say that Rogue One cannot match TFA's numbers (true) but then opt to use its multiplier for Rogue One for some reason, which doesn't make any sense, because that multiplier is directly caused by TFA's numbers, not by being Star Wars.

 

I'm well-aware that that's what I'm implying, and yes, it's deliberate.

 

TFA had the best of both worlds. Not only did it have by far the best opening day of all time ($9.4m AUD), but it was also far LESS frontloaded (in the opening day to opening weekend meaning of the word) than other comparable films that had high opening days. Deathly Hallows Part 2, which has the second biggest opening day of all time in Australia at $7.03m AUD, managed a multiplier of 2.62 from its opening day to its opening weekend. Here's a list of some other films with huge opening days in Australia, and you'll note that all of them have worse multipliers than TFA:

 

The Avengers - opening day $6m AUD, multiplier 2.21

The Hobbit - opening day $5.9m AUD, multiplier 2.03

Return of the King - opening day $5.3m AUD, multiplier 2.41

The Two Towers - opening day $5.23m AUD, multiplier 2.7

 

So as you can see, TFA was completely anomalous in its multiplier. It opened way higher than the films listed, and yet still had a multiplier way better than all of them (and even better than The Tower Towers, whose opening day was only 55% of TFA's. It had the best of both worlds, as I said. If TFA hadn't have had the universal appeal that it did, it would have probably had a multiplier of somewhere close to 2.0 or even less. So to suggest that Rogue One will jump from that to a 3.5x multiplier is completely absurd, in my opinion.

 

To add to my point, if you look at the films that opened around what you're suggesting Rogue One might open to, $4.7m AUD, none of them have anywhere near a multiplier near 3.5:

 

Twilight: Eclipse - opening day $4.42m AUD, multiplier 2.94

Half-Blood Prince - opening day $4.37m AUD, multiplier 3.28

Matrix Reloaded - opening day $4.17m AUD, multiplier 2.68

Fellowship of the Ring - opening day $4.12m AUD, multiplier 2.37

 

So what you're suggesting is that Rogue One is going to be far less frontloaded than every single movie that had an opening day in the same ballpark. For a series like Star Wars that, as I said, is historically frontloaded, and especially for a film like Rogue One that is way more skewed towards the fans rather than the general public, that's too much of a stretch. Not possible.

Edited December 15, 2016 by hw64

[DeeCee]

3 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

The Avengers - opening day $6m AUD, multiplier 2.21 - ANZAC Day (Wednesday)

The Hobbit - opening day $5.9m AUD, multiplier 2.03 - Boxing Day (Wednesday)

Return of the King - opening day $5.3m AUD, multiplier 2.41 Boxing Day (Friday)

The Two Towers - opening day $5.23m AUD, multiplier 2.7 Boxing Day (Thursday)

 

There are caveats to working things out like this.  All these films opened on a nationwide public holiday and different opening days.  The regular opening day is a Thursday.  Boxing Day is also the highest grossing day of the year.

 

Both TFA and R1 opened on a regular Thursday with most of the country not yet on summer school holidays.  For the next 6 weeks the whole country is on school holidays.  Also, many businesses shut down for the 10 days around Christmas/New Year.

Edited December 15, 2016 by DeeCee

[DeeCee]

I'll think about it. 

[DeeCee]

I'll run through a few scenarios based on TFA, Deadpool and Fantastic Beasts.  I give these to provide a range from recent films for how the weekend might play out.

 

TFA-This is a bang on 50% drop from the ridiculously huge opening day of TFA.  TFA was T-$9.42m, F-$5.3m, S-$6.3m, S-$6.2m.  My thinking is that for the rest of the weekend the drop will be closer to 35% from TFA.

 

$4.75m + $11.6m = $16.35m

 

Deadpool-It had an opening day of $3m and made $11.94m over the next 3 days for a OW of $14.94m.  So if R1 matches the FSS of Deadpool we have the following.  

 

$4.75m + $11.94m = $16.69m

 

FB-It had an opening day of $2.11m and a full OW of $9.76m for a multiple of 4.6.  FB has both a lower RT score and lower average rating.

 

$4.75m x 4.6 = $21.85m (This is highly unlikely and would be the extreme maximum)

 

Given all this I think the absolute low for the weekend in Australia is $16m and the absolute maximum is $19m.  To be more precise I think it can crack $17m so I'll give an opening weekend range in Australia of $17-18m.

 

How does that relate to Domestic?  I suspect the drop in Australia will be roughly be matched in the Domestic market.  Below is simply transferring my Aussie range with the same multiplier that occurred last year with TFA.

 

AUD17m x 9 gives an OW of USD153m 

AUD18m x 9 gives an OW of USD162m

 

I will now give a precise gut figure of USD155m with a margin of error of =/-5%.

 

So my final range is USD147 to USD163m.