Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[cubsfan]

5 hours ago, Nikostar said:

Think the 13 year wait will hurt this movie. Not seeing much hype and it does not help that 3d is not popular anymore. Also I am interested in critics reviews. The audience liked the original way more Ethan critics did.

Huh? The first was critically acclaimed and was up for a ton of Oscar noms.

[Grebacio]

My pre-pre-pre:

(pre presales predictions)

 

OW: 142M 

DOM: 727M

WW with no China : 2.35bn

WW with China : 3.1bn

 

 

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

My pre-pre-pre:

(pre presales predictions)

 

OW: 142M 

DOM: 727M

WW with no China : 2.35bn

WW with China : 3.1bn

 

OW DOM: 190m

DOM: 1.25B (33%)

OS - China: 2.53B (67%)

China: too hard to predict due to outside influences I have not much understanding of.

 

Worldwide! 3.78B + China

 

Here's a fun one.
Flop: <$1.2b
Terrible: 1.2b to 2.0b
Okay: 2.0b to 2.6b
Good: 2.6b to 3.5b
Amazing: 3.5b to 4.5b
Unbelievable: 4.5 billies plus

 

Yes I think it will do amazing

Edited November 19, 2022 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

If I had to predict what happens in China, my gut says it get's a release does really well then get's stopped in it's tracks as they don't want hollywood movies doing too well. $500m there

[Sophia Jane]

Wow…I just saw the comment on bilibili (Chinese Youtube)that a man  said he lost his hope for life and his life is full of darkness recently,he don’t know how to move on with his life,but hearing Avatar 2 finally came in Decemeber,he just thought his got back his encourage to life and decided to move on!

Cameron you never know you just saved the man in China!

Edited November 19, 2022 by Bruce

[Grebacio]

Flop: Less than 1 Billie

Disappointing: 1 Billie to 1.48bn (aka less than Maverick)

Fine: 1.49bn to 1.79bn

Good: 1.8bn to 2.19bn

Great: 2.2bn  to 2.8bn

Outstanding: 2.9bn to 3.29 bn

Insane:  3.3 billie to 4 billie

James Cameron is the absolute God of Box Office, never doubt him even for a second, no cultural relevance my ass: More than 4 billie

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

12 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Flop: Less than 1 Billie

Disappointing: 1 Billie to 1.48bn (aka less than Maverick)

Fine: 1.49bn to 1.79bn

Good: 1.8bn to 2.19bn

Great: 2.2bn  to 2.8bn

Outstanding: 2.9bn to 3.29 bn

Insane:  3.3 billie to 4 billie

James Cameron is the absolute God of Box Office, never doubt him even for a second, no cultural relevance my ass: More than 4 billie

 

 

just me an my insane expectations, but I wouldnt call less than NWH good

[XXR & Friends]

All of the below are assuming a full release schedule minus Russia. If China doesn't happen, the bars would move. 

Flop = Under $1B
Disappointment = $1-1.3B
Acceptable = $1.3-1.7B
Good = $1.7-2.3B
Great = $2.3-2.8B

Amazing = $2.8-3.5B
Incredible = $3.5B....

 

Avatar Level Performance = $4.4B
Titanic Level Performance = $5.9B

 

[Maggie]

Do it for the US only. My prediction is 800M domestic.

 

700-800M still good

600-700M acceptable

Under 600M disappointment

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Do it for the US only. My prediction is 800M domestic.

 

700-800M still good

600-700M acceptable

Under 600M disappointment

 

Flop = Under $425M
Disappointment = $425-550M
Acceptable = $550-650M
Good = $650-750M
Great = $750-850M

Amazing = $850-999M
Incredible = $1B....

 

Avatar Level Performance = $1.173B
Titanic Level Performance = $1.504B

Edited November 19, 2022 by Toruk Makto XXR

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Flop = Under $425M
Disappointment = $425-550M
Acceptable = $550-650M
Good = $650-750M
Great = $750-850M

Amazing = $850-999M
Incredible = $1B....

 

Avatar Level Performance = $1.173B
Titanic Level Performance = $1.504B

So, what is your realistic prediction for domestic?

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Maggie said:

So, what is your realistic prediction for domestic?

 

$675M is my target but until we can get some presale data and I can gauge actual interest, you can do +/- 25% of that number 

[Maggie]

Just now, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

$675M is my target

Very conservative.

 

I think the lower predictions are because people sense there's a lack of passion. I mean, there are a few Avatar/Jim stans, but it doesn't compare to the usual Marvel hysteria.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Very conservative.

 

I think the lower predictions are because people sense there's a lack of passion. I mean, there are a few Avatar/Jim stans, but it doesn't compare to the usual Marvel hysteria.

 

You could be correct. Perhaps this will have an NWH or A1 level of ticket sales but I'd rather shoot "low" and not be disappointed by lofty projections. 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So, what is your realistic prediction for domestic?

 

2 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

$675M is my target but until we can get some presale data and I can gauge actual interest, you can do +/- 25% of that number 

 

For me, there are two major wildcards here presuming a high quality movie. 

 

1] How much resistance is there really to 3D in the Domestic Market?

and

2] How anticipated/looking forward to/appetite is there for more/insert term for wanting more Avatar [HERE] is there really?

 

Despite the over 1,200 plus pages worth of electrons splatted on screens from this forum, I don't think the answers are definitive when it comes to stratospheric numbers. Especially when it comes to 3D.   The "how much do people want more Avatar I'm more ambivalent on, but the proof is in the pudding, as the saying goes.  I certainly expect it to have a lot of interest, but I don't actually know if it has a OMGWTFBBQ level of interest.  

 

Note that even if it doesn't have OMGWTFBBQ level of initial interest, WOM could certainly propel it once again.  Then again, capturing lighting in a bottle twice (or three times if one wants to also count Titanic) is very very hard, even for the Gods of Cinema. It's absolutely ***NOT*** doubting James Cameron to note the degree of difficulty here. 

 

As it is, I certainly expect it to be incredibly well received.  That doesn't necessarily mean 1b DOM though as a lot of stars have to align.

 

Swinging back to 3D... man, I just don't know.  On the one hand I have my own observations of how 3D plays locally after watching it at the seat level for over four years (or three if one takes out the pandemic stretch of about 13 months of no movies).  On the other hand, this is the Platinum Standard when it comes to 3D, so how much of a difference will that make when it comes to resistance?  And if people are "forced" to see it in 3D (at least when it comes to the various preferred PLFs out there) will that actually matter?  If so, how much?  And if so, can it actually be measured beyond a gut level? And, if so again, would stellar WOM counter that which in turn would lead to longer legs?

 

Despite all of the evangelizing on this thread when it comes to 3D that is easily the biggest wildcard for me.  If people can either be persuaded to overcome their aversion to 3D and/or make an exception, then the sky is the limit... Presuming folks actually want more Avatar, of course.  But if 3D is a drag? 

 

Well it's a consideration iz all I iz saying.

 

FWIW, I think I'm still around +/- 750m DOM total.  How it gets there, I have no idea.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to do much better than that (stars aligning) and also wouldn't surprise me to see it do less (how much less, I have no idea whatsoever thanks to the wildcards at play).

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

FWIW, I think I'm still around +/- 750m DOM total.  How it gets there, I have no idea.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to do much better than that (stars aligning) and also wouldn't surprise me to see it do less (how much less, I have no idea whatsoever thanks to the wildcards at play).

 

Do have to admit I'm... worried is far too strong a word so instead I'll say perplexed by Disney's marketing of A2 so far and makes me wonder if the previews/OW will be depressed as a result. I certainly expected much stronger marketing/hype building for A2 from the Mouse than has been done so far, but that just leaves room for stronger legs if indeed the OW isn't as hype driven (hence my "How it gets there, I have no idea").

[ImNotExcited]

Guess we're getting that 3 minute plot summary trailer after all

.

 

Final Trailer drops at halftime during Monday Night Football on ESPN apparently.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, ImNotExcited said:

Guess we're getting that 3 minute plot summary trailer after all

.

 

Final Trailer drops at halftime during Monday Night Football on ESPN apparently.

huh???? sourceeeee

[Reddroast]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

huh???? sourceeeee

They most likely announced it td during during the college football games td. 

[ImNotExcited]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

huh???? sourceeeee

Only source is a tv ad that people have been tweeting about for right now

 

https://twitter.com/pyobbo_/status/1594077794434437121 https://twitter.com/Mae_Is_Crazy/status/1594085679981789184 https://twitter.com/albertjschulman/status/1594094746539941888 https://twitter.com/RCDiscussion/status/1594083639012184064  https://twitter.com/geovwalden/status/1594092030770253833