Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Endgame definitely got $2-3B predictions lol

 

Mostly 2-2.5 since we had had IW at the time but 3-4 talks were almost non existent. Here, now, we are considering 3 billie as a relatively realistic threshold which is nuts.

[Sophia Jane]

only 3 days left ,I am already excited now

[danziger]

 

At 24:52 Guillermo del Toro starts talking about Avatar:
"I think Jim has snipers on the... I already broke. I shouldn't have, I tweeted, I already... but I will say this, what I said, I stand 110 percent for what I said. It is remarkable. I mean, it's just BAM, the scope and the level of filmmaking and the vistas, the immersiveness -- you will be transported again."

[Dragoncaine]

How are we feeling for Golden Globe nominations tomorrow? Drama, where Avatar is campaigning, has Women Talking, The Fabelmans, Elvis, and more to contend with.

[Nero]

12 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Mostly 2-2.5 since we had had IW at the time but 3-4 talks were almost non existent. Here, now, we are considering 3 billie as a relatively realistic threshold which is nuts.

Yeah few folks here are very enthusiastic to say the least about the movie getting over the top grosses and so if the movie doesn't meet their expectations, they are setting themselves for disappointment 😥. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

Still, I think I'm gonna go with 750M OW. Any finishes above $3B is a win (I want that threshold to be crossed).

Edited December 11, 2022 by nguyenkhoi282

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Still, I think I'm gonna go with 750-800M OW. Any finishes above $3B is a win (I want that threshold to be crossed).

So you just did 2 posts being upset about people predicting 2bil. 3bil. 4bil., then you do this post predicting 3bil and a 750-800mil OW (i presume you mean WW)?

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, Nero said:

Yeah few folks here are very enthusiastic to say the least about the movie getting over the top grosses and so if the movie doesn't meet their expectations, they are setting themselves for disappointment 😥. 

Tracking has US OW in the 160-200mil opening, predictions out of China having Chnia in the 200mil OW range, add in the rest of the world and you're talking 600-800 mil OW, and would only need around 3x legs to get to 2BIl, and legs for this should be 4-5 times.

 

I mean regardless of your viewpoint, the math is there.

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, danziger said:

This is what the wiki says about Star Wars' box office: "On July 21, 1978 while still in current release in 38 theaters in the U.S., the film expanded into a 1,744 theater national saturation windup of release and set a new U.S. weekend record of $10,202,726.[227][228][229] The gross prior to the expansion was $221,280,994. The expansion added a further $43,774,911 to take its gross to $265,055,905. Reissues in 1979 ($22,455,262), 1981 ($17,247,363), and 1982 ($17,981,612) brought its cumulative gross in the U.S and Canada to $323 million,[230][231] and extended its global earnings to $530 million.[232]"

 

So if that's accurate, BOM should correct the original release to $265m. One of many errors they still haven't corrected. I wonder if they ever corrected for Jaws' re-releases. (Just checked and yeah they still say Jaws' first release had $260m, which BOM forums proved wrong 13 years ago.)

Actually original sws made 190m. They gave it another re-release to go against Superman the movie. So that data was incorrect. Sws did not make 220m in one run. It was with a re-release😎

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, Nero said:

Yeah few folks here are very enthusiastic to say the least about the movie getting over the top grosses and so if the movie doesn't meet their expectations, they are setting themselves for disappointment 😥. 

should I predict lower than in an attempt to trick myself into being more impressed by the results?

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Sheldon Cr]

11 minutes ago, Nero said:

Yeah few folks here are very enthusiastic to say the least about the movie getting over the top grosses and so if the movie doesn't meet their expectations, they are setting themselves for disappointment 😥. 

Lol a few you said? There's far more than few predicting this could be the third time a Cameron film becomes biggest film  of all time. Including HR and variety. So that's not exactly true Brother Nero.

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

should I predict lower than in an attempt to trick myself into being more impressed by the results?

Hah hah. Brother Jimbo.  I know right. Considering how many fans JC has amassed since T2, Titanic and Avatar. I think our predicts are pretty timid versus this films full potential.

 

 

I assume Nero earlier predicts were lower than most or he feels no way for the film to reach or exceed the bigger predictions?

 

I think apart from the awesome but max potential 5b-6b ww predicts out there. 

I think Avatar 2 believers predicts on the fair to normal high-end are very much in Avatars realm to acquire. So I think for most we will definitely not be disappointed as long as we fly over NWH and Titanic WW and best the Maverick domestically.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[stuart360]

Just now, Sheldon Cr said:

Hah hah. Brother Jimbo. 

 

 

I assume Nero earlier predicts were lower than most?

 

I think apart from the 5b-6b ww predicts out there. The predicts on the high-end are very much in Avatars realm to acquire. So I think for most we will definitely not be disappointed.

The way i see it is 2bil is locked. I cant get my head around a scenario where the film doesnt hit 2bil knowing what we know with tracking, and predictions from other countries etc, unless the film is awful, and a terrible experience, and everything we have heard so far points to the opposite.

 

And 2bil in this current climate is amazing really. So yes some of us would be dissapointed with like 2.1bil or something around there, in reality it would be an amazing gross that both Disney and Cameron would probably love to be honest.

 

The fact that the film has IMO a very good chance to hit 3+bil, well its just gravy on top.

[dignam]

Oh man cant believe it, just 3 days than i will be on pandora again. I know some fans who wanted to see this movie aren´t with us anymore 😢, so i´m thankful to witness this movie after 13 years.

[danziger]

16 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Actually original sws made 190m. They gave it another re-release to go against Superman the movie. So that data was incorrect. Sws did not make 220m in one run. It was with a re-release😎

 

Do you remember a source for this? It would be good to have. When a lot of this research was being done on BOM forums 13 years ago I seem to remember the consensus was the original release made around $220-225m but I don't know if we ever got confirmation on when it was completely out of theaters, and now I'm learning there was reportedly a 76-week straight run in an Oregon theater during the original release: https://www.space.com/star-wars-45th-anniversary

[Sheldon Cr]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The way i see it is 2bil is locked. I cant get my head around a scenario where the film doesnt hit 2bil knowing what we know with tracking, and predictions from other countries etc, unless the film is awful, and a terrible experience, and everything we have heard so far points to the opposite.

 

And 2bil in this current climate is amazing really. So yes some of us would be dissapointed with like 2.1bil or something around there, in reality it would be an amazing gross that both Disney and Cameron would probably love to be honest.

 

The fact that the film has IMO a very good chance to hit 3+bil, well its just gravy on top.

Agreed and just maybe we can creep to the 3.8-4b ww Mark as well.

 

 

 

Avatar 2 sets new milestones domestically and internationally.

 

 

"Lets Get It Done!

 

 

190m OW, 1.1 B

OS 2.5B. 3.6b WW

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

20 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

Do you remember a source for this? It would be good to have. When a lot of this research was being done on BOM forums 13 years ago I seem to remember the consensus was the original release made around $220-225m but I don't know if we ever got confirmation on when it was completely out of theaters, and now I'm learning there was reportedly a 76-week straight run in an Oregon theater during the original release: https://www.space.com/star-wars-45th-anniversary

I was there. Sws was not in theaters. They ran it against the hype of Superman which won(133-135m), but I rem SWs making 80-90 plus million with the 2nd re-release(Most impressive)

This should be in old SWs history documentaries. I'll see if any articles are out there. They have exaggerated its original run for years. In Bom that was settled that it was full re-release that took it to 220+M. You will notice they always deceptively lumping re-release  grosses of that film together. Sometimes you see Sws made 300m in 1977. Sometimes its 460-500m. Smh

Edited December 11, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Love how they are going full 3D push! 

 

 

Yes sir. I want everyone to see it the way its meant to be experienced. I cant wait Brother Boro

[danziger]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

I was there. Sws was not in theaters. They ran it against the hype of Superman which won(133-135m), but I rem SWs making 80-90 plus million with the 2nd re-release(Most impressive)

This should be in old SWs history documentaries. I'll see if any articles are out there. They have exaggerated its original run for years. In Bom that was settled that it was full re-release that took it to 220+M

 

Ok, thanks. Arguably if a movie is down to just a handful of theaters and then has a massive re-expansion, that is a re-release since it covers 99+% of the market. 

[Sheldon Cr]

20 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

Ok, thanks. Arguably if a movie is down to just a handful of theaters and then has a massive re-expansion, that is a re-release since it covers 99+% of the market. 

Yes indeed. Still impressive that Sw 1977 still came pretty close to the gigantic  Superman triumph though, but definitely after that first run and it's barely in theaters( if any really) Then the new ad campaign and push  relaunch to get in on Superman hype. That is definitely a re-release. Agreed brother danziger.