Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Lucas said:

2.5 hours and a snow storm to go.

the millions of kg of snow between me and my cinema, i'm nervous that it's not gonna melt by friday

[XXR & Friends]

Presales patterns everywhere have not picked up as many had hoped. Obviously there are still many variables to play out but on the domestic side, OW tracking seems to be pointing a bit lower than even my previous estimation. We are probably looking at $130-150M now. 

[Borobudur]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Presales patterns everywhere have not picked up as many had hoped. Obviously there are still many variables to play out but on the domestic side, OW tracking seems to be pointing a bit lower than even my previous estimation. We are probably looking at $130-150M now. 

To me this is like Elvis on a much bigger scale. I remember Elvis was pointing to a $35m~$40m at one point before cooling off to $30m but eventually leg out beautifully. 

[Robertron]

Just got home from my session.

 

It was… good. 
 

Visually, it’s flawless. Stunning. Breathtaking. Insert any other word like it. 
 

Story-wise…left a bit to desire.
Characters - I’m more in love with Neytiri than I thought I could have been and I LOVE her character from the first.
 

That’s all I’ll say for now.
 

I possibly went in skewed by all the review hyperbole/hype, so I think a re-watch is needed for me to have a final say. Will also sleep on it and see how I feel in the morning. 

[Sheldon Cr]

16 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Presales patterns everywhere have not picked up as many had hoped. Obviously there are still many variables to play out but on the domestic side, OW tracking seems to be pointing a bit lower than even my previous estimation. We are probably looking at $130-150M now. 

Not so sure on that one XX... Time will tell.

They had predictions of 155-200 just this week I believe. I doubt its as low as 130

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Sheldon Cr said:

Not so sure on that one XX... Time will tell.

They had predictions of 155-200 just this week I believe. I doubt its as low as 130

But all predictions are based on expectations the movie will keep growing exponentially on presales, which is the usual but it's not happening with Avatar.

 

Honestly it's impossible to know the reason, if people will just walkup, if they'll wait and watch the next days... But the presales are bad right now, there's no way to spin that. 

 

I still believe 140M is the lowest it can get, but comps are definitely dropping each day.

[Nikostar]

All I will say based on reviews and ticket sales is get these unrealistic expectations under control quick. This will be a long weekend for sure.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

All I will say based on reviews and ticket sales is get these unrealistic expectations under control quick. This will be a long weekend for sure.

no

$20 to my total prediction, i just bought a ticket for you (i'm keeping it)

Edited December 14, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

All I will say based on reviews and ticket sales is get these unrealistic expectations under control quick. This will be a long weekend for sure.

Funny of all, the slowdown actually took place before review drops, so people can't blame not passionately positive review. 

[Hatebox]

Surely the OW doesn't matter too much for this movie, of all movies? I'm absolutely not saying that as a pre-emptive defense - I'm always hungry for a meltdown on this forum. But Cameron is the god of legs.

[JustLurking]

28 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Presales patterns everywhere have not picked up as many had hoped. Obviously there are still many variables to play out but on the domestic side, OW tracking seems to be pointing a bit lower than even my previous estimation. We are probably looking at $130-150M now. 

Yep. I should probably revise my prediction down too but not sure I really want to be a coward like that 👀I'll probably stick with it and whatever happens happens.

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Surely the OW doesn't matter too much for this movie, of all movies? I'm absolutely not saying that as a pre-emptive defense - I'm always hungry for a meltdown on this forum. But Cameron is the god of legs.

OW of this movie matters less for its long term success than any movie this year. It’s just nicer if it were to open to $175M than $140M lol

[JustLurking]

I mean, OW matters for every film, if anything because WOM spreads faster if you open higher too.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I mean, OW matters for every film, if anything because WOM spreads faster if you open higher too.

I think everyone would agree that a higher OW would equate to a higher total gross. It's just a matter of how important it is. If it opens to what some people are thinking we could be looking at legs closer to the original Avatar than top gun maverick.

 

You can't stop the billie

[Sheldon Cr]

19 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

no

$20 to my total prediction, i just bought a ticket for you (i'm keeping it)

LOl Im wondering where all the slow down talk is coming from. Since tickets are sold out everywhere Jimbo.

Lets see what happens.. Still feeling 150 lowish- And highest over 190M OW. 

 

Folks here dont get that again when you have the 2 Largest films of all time, from different generations.. You just never know how many walkups are going to happen. Millions of these folks are not comic fans or online ticket buyers.

And like we have said before --The power of James Cameron doesnt have anything to do with OWs, its those 30x, 10x, and 7X multipliers. Maybe folks forget that anything can happen when between 2 movies Cameron has reached 4-5 Quadrants of Moviegoers. Millions of those ticket buyers dont buy tickets online. Im one of them in fact.

Unrealistic are those below NWH and DS2 on here and on the web.

 

Our 155-205M OW predicts are definitely not unrealistic, when you consider 180-200M tickets were sold between Camerons last 2 movies domestically. Thats alot of potential walkups in the 25-70 yr old category this and every weekend after that.

 

"THIS IS STILL OUR LAND!"

 

LETS GO!!    

 

" THIS IS GREAT!" 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

" AND THIS IS STILL OUR LAND PANDORIANS !"

 

 

 

 

[DeeCee]

Visually stunning. At times I felt like he wanted to just immerse you in the world rather then progress the plot. Overall my first impression is that I think I liked it more then the first. 

[Sheldon Cr]

21 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

OW of this movie matters less for its long term success than any movie this year. It’s just nicer if it were to open to $175M than $140M lol

That I agree on , but it matters not if we get to the 900-1B+ domestic goal with 7x-8x Legs ;).

Im still thinking above 160+M Though

[Sheldon Cr]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I think everyone would agree that a higher OW would equate to a higher total gross. It's just a matter of how important it is. If it opens to what some people are thinking we could be looking at legs closer to the original Avatar than top gun maverick.

 

You can't stop the billie

 

 

And unlike other movies.. His last 2 sold around 200M tickets domestically..

The Legs of Cameron Epics are above everything else Brother Jimbo!

 

 

[Fanboy]

Just got back. Loved it. Audiences are gonna eat it up like they did the first movie. Audience at my showing was very into it. Some beats are a little to similar to the first movie and it suffers the same strengths and weaknesses because of it, and 3D is so good I don't even know if I'll be interested in watching it again in 2D. 3 hours went by super fast for me, I was in uncomfortable seats so I did start to feel it about 2 hours in but then the final act starts and I honestly could have sat through another hour I was having such a blast. Excited to see more of y'all reactions in the coming days. 

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Just got back. Loved it. Audiences are gonna eat it up like they did the first movie. Audience at my showing was very into it. Some beats are a little to similar to the first movie and it suffers the same strengths and weaknesses because of it, and 3D is so good I don't even know if I'll be interested in watching it again in 2D. 3 hours went by super fast for me, I was in uncomfortable seats so I did start to feel it about 2 hours in but then the final act starts and I honestly could have sat through another hour I was having such a blast. Excited to see more of y'all reactions in the coming days. 

Awesome Brother Fanboy..  So in your opinion will the sequel get Camerons typical 7x-10X legs or better? 

 

And how you felt about it versus the first. My friends online telling me its mind boggling and is one up there with the best sequels ever made by James.. So Im excited. Some think this can get a  8X-9X multiplier off a 150-190+M OW. 

Man crazy run imminent~~