Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Visually stunning. At times I felt like he wanted to just immerse you in the world rather then progress the plot. Overall my first impression is that I think I liked it more then the first. 

 

He admitted to doing that in the first movie, this is unsurprising! glad you liked it more than the first

Edited December 14, 2022 by IronJimbo

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The meltdowns when this does a realistic and respectable $1.5B worldwide instead of the frankly ridiculous $3B predictions are going to be glorious. In the digital consumption era this isn't going to have anywhere near the staying power the first film had. Wakanda Forever just proved to us that the demographic which goes back for rewatches is gone and just waiting for the digital release instead. And while the reviews are still good, I fear they aren't enough of an improvement over the first film to convince people to jump in.

[stuart360]

Have faith my brothers and sisters. Remmber there is a lot going against this film for various reasons, and a lot of people against the film, if you get what i'm saying.

 

The only way we will be able to truley tell what the masses really think about the film is the films legs, and i'm still going with 4-5x legs with this.

Just too many critics that loved the film while being less than impressed with the first film. Then critics like Grace Randolph who hated the first film so muuch that she was part of online hate groups about the first film, and now she LOVES this sequel.

 

This may end up starting lower than people expected/hoped (at least on the US) but the final gross is all that matters.

 

[Fanboy]

9 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Awesome Brother Fanboy..  So in your opinion will the sequel get Camerons typical 7x-10X legs or better? 

 

And how you felt about it versus the first. My friends online telling me its mind boggling and is one up there with the best sequels ever made by James.. So Im excited. Some think this can get a  8X-9X multiplier off a 150-190+M OW. 

Man crazy run imminent~~

I don't want to say how big the multiplier will be. I can still see it "only" doing 600M just as easy as I can see 1 Billion, but I think whatever it opens to, a 4x multiplier is probably very likely. I'm already planning to see it again in a few days. 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The meltdowns when this does a realistic and respectable $1.5B worldwide instead of the frankly ridiculous $3B predictions are going to be glorious. In the digital consumption era this isn't going to have anywhere near the staying power the first film had. Wakanda Forever just proved to us that the demographic which goes back for rewatches is gone and just waiting for the digital release instead. And while the reviews are still good, I fear they aren't enough of an improvement over the first film to convince people to jump in.

 

The fact you think $1.5b will be respectable for this movie is already hilarious. It's ok to have an opinion but to come in and act like your $1.5 is the face of reason, nah it's not. The "reasonable" ones and the average predictions seem to be around $650-750m dom, which equates to arround $2.3b worldwide with china

Edited December 14, 2022 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Have faith my brothers and sisters. Remmber there is a lot going against this film for various reasons, and a lot of people against the film, if you get what i'm saying.

 

The only way we will be able to truley tell what the masses really think about the film is the films legs, and i'm still going with 4-5x legs with this.

Just too many critics that loved the film while being less than impressed with the first film. Then critics like Grace Randolph who hated the first film so muuch that she was part of online hate groups about the first film, and now she LOVES this sequel.

 

This may end up starting lower than people expected/hoped (at least on the US) but the final gross is all that matters.

 

 

I predict many people in here claiming the run is over after the opening weekend. It's a shame the nature of a sequel to a single movie back in 2009 is backloaded. It's kind of annoying we have to wait 2 weeks to prove them wrong.

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The meltdowns when this does a realistic and respectable $1.5B worldwide instead of the frankly ridiculous $3B predictions are going to be glorious. In the digital consumption era this isn't going to have anywhere near the staying power the first film had. Wakanda Forever just proved to us that the demographic which goes back for rewatches is gone and just waiting for the digital release instead. And while the reviews are still good, I fear they aren't enough of an improvement over the first film to convince people to jump in.

Lets at least give the film a week in cinema's before starting the doom and gloom about its box office.

 

I'm still 100% certain that 2bil WW is locked, so much so that Admins you can perm my account if it doesnt hit 2bil worldwide.

There i said it, and i mean it.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I'm still 100% certain that 2bil WW is locked, so much so that Admins you can perm my account if it doesnt hit 2bil worldwide.

There i said it, and i mean it.

[IronJimbo]

To all the people predicting less Domestic gross than the first movie.

What date will the first movie start making more daily than Avatar 2? And remember, after that point is has to make back all the money Avatar 2 has surpassed it by to that point.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Lets at least give the film a week in cinema's before starting the doom and gloom about its box office.

 

I'm still 100% certain that 2bil WW is locked, so much so that Admins you can perm my account if it doesnt hit 2bil worldwide.

There i said it, and i mean it.

 

I'll join you but in a different way.

 

if Avatar 2 doesn't make $2b WW mods can ban me up until October 2024,

That's until 2 months before Avatar 3.

And it's highly likely I might have just moved on by then

Edited December 14, 2022 by IronJimbo

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I'll join you but in a different way.

 

if Avatar 2 doesn't make $2b WW mods can ban me up until October 2024, 2 months before Avatar 2. And it's highly likely I might have just moved on by then

I mean Christ its probably going to be well over 1.5bil WW by the end of New Years weekend.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

To all the people predicting less Domestic gross than the first movie.

What date will the first movie start making more daily than Avatar 2? And remember, after that point is has to make back all the money Avatar 2 has surpassed it by to that point.

So my prediction at this point is OW x 4.5-5 IM. If it opens to $140M, then by the 2nd WE it’ll be under A1 (due to Christmas Eve Saturday) but then it should be back over on the weekly days (Dec 26-29). I would say it’s full under A1 dailies by 3rd WE and doesn’t catch them again.  So by the end of the 3rd WE, A2 is probably in the $430-450M range. A1 will catch up in the two months after that. 
 

As an example, A1’s 9th WE was $23.6M and I have A2 doing about half of that.

[Shanks]

Avatar opened to 77m, which ranked as 28th best OW back in 2009. Now, Presales look like it may open near about $147m- $150m, which is again between 27th or 28th Position, in current OW's records.

 

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

if Avatar 2 doesn't make $2b WW mods can ban me up until October 2024,

That's until 2 months before Avatar 3.

And it's highly likely I might have just moved on by then

 

It will pass $2B anyway. I can't see it performing worst than NWH in Europe and whatever less it will make in any other Territory would be covered by China alone. Japan too wasn't kind to NWH but It will do lot more than NWH there. 

 

To throw you some good News, I do track some countries in LA and its doing good numbers there - almost like CBMs.

 

 

[stuart360]

16 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Just want to add one stipulation to what i said. I'm talking about a full cinema run.

If say the first 2 weeks gross came in a bit under what Disney had hoped for, and they start getting jittery and are like 'F it, we are going to put it on Dinsey Plus after a month'. In a situation like that i take  back what i said.

 

But if that doesnt happen, and the film gets a full cinema run, then yes perm me if this doesnt hit 2bil WW.😀

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Shanks said:

Avatar opened to 77m, which ranked as 28th best OW back in 2009. Now, Presales look like it may open near about $147m- $150m, which is again between 27th or 28th Position, in current OW's records.

 

 

It will pass $2B anyway. I can't see it performing worst than NWH in Europe and whatever less it will make in any other Territory would be covered by China alone. Japan too wasn't kind to NWH but It will do lot more than NWH there. 

 

To throw you some good News, I do track some countries in LA and its doing good numbers there - almost like CBMs.

 

 

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade as I am not sure myself of how things will go in the market, but I am actually not sure it will make much more than NWH in Japan.

 

With how muted PS seems it will need to leg out a lot - which, like, it's Japan so that's not necessarily a shocker, but sequels often struggle to leg out in Japan, which is why sequels declining happens so often there. It obviously has the advantage of getting holidays while NWH had to skip them entirely due to JJK, but like...yeah. I don't know. Hopefully I'm wrong!

 

Good to hear about latam though, that was my second worry for A2 outside of Japan.

 

The main thing that worries me is walk-ups atm. It feels like people either want to watch it in the best format available to them, and on the best seats they can get, or they won't watch it at all. Which sounds good on paper but if you look at SK today for example, has led to very poor walk-ups, worse than CBMs even.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Just want to add one stipulation to what i said. I'm talking about a full cinema run.

If say the first 2 weeks gross came in a bit under what Disney had hoped for, and they start getting jittery and are like 'F it, we are going to put it on Dinsey Plus after a month'. In a situation like that i take  back what i said.

 

But if that doesnt happen, and the film gets a full cinema run, then yes perm me if this doesnt hit 2bil WW.😀

***me as I push the ban button***
 

[Derpity]

28 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The meltdowns when this does a realistic and respectable $1.5B worldwide instead of the frankly ridiculous $3B predictions are going to be glorious. In the digital consumption era this isn't going to have anywhere near the staying power the first film had. Wakanda Forever just proved to us that the demographic which goes back for rewatches is gone and just waiting for the digital release instead. And while the reviews are still good, I fear they aren't enough of an improvement over the first film to convince people to jump in.

 

The reason Avatar was such a beast, and the reason Avatar 2 will be such a beast is because you cannot replicate the theatrical experience at home. If you don't see it in theaters, you have missed the trick and won't be able to get it back.

 

That is definitely NOT the case with Marvel movies, in fact the latest ones are so mid that you're better off just waiting for streaming.

[Shanks]

Just now, JustLurking said:

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade as I am not sure myself of how things will go in the market, but I am actually not sure it will make much more than NWH in Japan.

 

With how muted PS seems it will need to leg out a lot - which, like, it's Japan so that's not necessarily a shocker, but sequels often struggle to leg out in Japan, which is why sequels declining happens so often there. It obviously has the advantage of getting holidays while NWH had to skip them entirely due to JJK, but like...yeah. I don't know. Hopefully I'm wrong!

 

Good to hear about latam though, that was my second worry for A2 outside of Japan.

 

The main thing that worries me is walk-ups atm. It feels like people either want to watch it in the best format available to them, and on the best seats they can get, or they won't watch it at all. Which sounds good on paper but if you look at SK today for example, has led to very poor walk-ups, worse than CBMs even.

 

Japan is one Country where Legs means something. Anyway, I saw it on twitter, Premium format are selling well in Japan but not the normal ones, maybe something to do with Fans rushing and wanting to see it in best format or something and GA maybe holding back for now. Maybe JC needs to release some Songs or something, lmao.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Shanks said:

 

Japan is one Country where Legs means something. Anyway, I saw it on twitter, Premium format are selling well in Japan but not the normal ones, maybe something to do with Fans rushing and wanting to see it in best format or something and GA maybe holding back for now. Maybe JC needs to release some Songs or something, lmao.

That is exactly what I am seeing. Premium formats are selling well esp. IMAX but regular shows are ANEMIC to say the least in Japan.

 

Worth keeping in mind that Suzume and Slam Dunk are still doing good business in Japan so if this doesn't pull strong numbers it's bad news for its holiday screen count as theaters might distribute a lot of it around.

Edited December 14, 2022 by JustLurking

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

***me as I push the ban button***
 

Ha ha, i mean even looking at your revised US predictions above XXR, you're talking 600+mil US, and if this film gets anywhere close to the domestic/international split the first film had, it would still be over 2bil WW.