Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Ethan Hunt]

450m-ish means less attendance than TF2 right?

Yes.  

[vc2002]

Yes.  

 

So the logic behind these 450-ish predictions must be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time is less anticipated than TF2, and the sequel will have worse reception than TF2, right? I mean, I'm trying to figure out if these predictions are based on logical consideration, or just purely wishful thinking.

Edited July 18, 2014 by vc2002

[Ethan Hunt]

So the logic behind these 450-ish predictions must be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time is less anticipated than TF2, and the sequel will have worse reception than TF2, right? I mean, I'm trying to figure out if these predictions are based on logical consideration, or just purely wishful thinking.

Ive got no idea what people are thinking. 

[The Panda]

So the logic behind these 450-ish predictions must be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time is less anticipated than TF2, and the sequel will have worse reception than TF2, right? I mean, I'm trying to figure out if these predictions are based on logical consideration, or just purely wishful thinking.

 

Empire Strikes back had a 50% drop from Star Wars, given that Avatar was less of a hit than Star Wars I went with about 40%.

 

Also, TF2 struck the iron when it was hot, Avatar is having a nearly ten year wait with a story that really felt like it was finished (not much need for a sequel, it stands on its own).  Plus the 3D share will be vastly lower.

Edited July 18, 2014 by The Panda

[Ethan Hunt]

Empire Strikes back had a 50% drop from Star Wars, given that Avatar was less of a hit than Star Wars I went with about 40%.

hemm. i see your point but I don't agree. 

[The Panda]

hemm. i see your point but I don't agree. 

 

Is there any reason why Avatar 2 wouldn't drop around 40%?  I can't see anything pointing to a smaller drop.

[Dementeleus]

So the logic behind these 450-ish predictions must be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time is less anticipated than TF2, and the sequel will have worse reception than TF2, right? I mean, I'm trying to figure out if these predictions are based on logical consideration, or just purely wishful thinking.

 

It's conservative thinking, especially this far out.

[Hatebox]

I'd be surprised if the next one misses 500m, but far stranger things have happened. Like the first one making 700m.

[vc2002]

Empire Strikes back had a 50% drop from Star Wars, given that Avatar was less of a hit than Star Wars I went with about 40%.

 

Also, TF2 struck the iron when it was hot, Avatar is having a nearly ten year wait with a story that really felt like it was finished (not much need for a sequel, it stands on its own).  Plus the 3D share will be vastly lower.

 

Initial runs:

 

ANH: 220m

ESB: 209m

 

That's a 5% drop. That gives you 710m for Avatar 2.

 

Avatar needs a sequel more than TF1 did because Navi only defeated the human on Pandora and naturally people on earth would strike back. In TF1 the cube, which is literally the only cause of all actions from both side, was destroyed, plus Megatron the leader of the bad guys was killed, everyone should've lived in peace, yet they came up with a completely irrelevent story and made it TF2.

 

Gravity proved that a very high 3D share is still possible and given how Cameron will be pushing the envelope like he always does, a high 3D share on Avatar 2 is actually very probable.

Edited July 18, 2014 by vc2002

[vc2002]

It's conservative thinking, especially this far out.

 

Well then that's gotta be too conservative isn't it? I mean A2 literally has to have lame-as-hell WOM and maybe a Razzie to have less attendance than TF2.

 

In fact, you know what? Even if it manages to have that kind of WOM and indeed the Razzie award, it would still be quite unlikely that it sells less tickets than TF2.

[AniNate]

 

In fact, you know what? Even if it manages to have that kind of WOM and indeed the Razzie award, it would still be quite unlikely that it sells less tickets than TF2.

 

God, I don't even want to think about that.

[The Futurist]

Avatar breakdown :Unique Visual spectacle : 40%Story, characters, plot : 40%Novelty of 3D : 20%

[vc2002]

God, I don't even want to think about that.

 

Well it's the only option if A2 only makes 450m, so we better learn to deal with it just in case Cameron loses his fucking mind and decides to pull off an Uwe Boll on A2.

Edited July 18, 2014 by vc2002

[Dementeleus]

I'll throw out a slightly more unusual comparison. Let's treat Cameron/Schwarzenegger as a franchise. Coming off T2, an absolute juggernaut of a movie, their "sequel" was TRUE LIES, which fell around 28% from its predecessor. If we use that comparison, A2 finishes around 534m or so.

[The Panda]

Initial runs:ANH: 220mESB: 209mThat's a 5% drop. That gives you 710m for Avatar 2.Avatar needs a sequel more than TF1 did because Navi only defeated the human on Pandora and naturally people on earth would strike back. In TF1 the cube, which is literally the only cause of all actions from both side, was destroyed, plus Megatron the leader of the bad guys was killed, everyone should've lived in peace, yet they came up with a completely irrelevent story and made it TF2.Gravity proved that a very high 3D share is still possible and given how Cameron will be pushing the envelope like he always does, a high 3D share on Avatar 2 is actually very probable.

If you're going by the weekend run on BoxOffice mojo that isn't entirely accurate given how old it was.But it was at 307 domestic not 400, sorry my memory escapes me. So a 34% drop,so if Avatar 2 has a 30% drop that would place it at around 534m. However account for less 3D and it might be closer to 470-500m

[The Panda]

Avatar breakdown :Unique Visual spectacle : 40%Story, characters, plot : 40%Novelty of 3D : 20%

People are under rating the 3D novelty at the time. It seems like nothing now but when Avatar was released the 3D was jaw dropping and resulted in every new blockbuster to be converted into 3D.It's more likeExperience and world immersion - 40%3D Novelty - 35%Relateable Story and Characters - 25%

[The Panda]

Well then that's gotta be too conservative isn't it? I mean A2 literally has to have lame-as-hell WOM and maybe a Razzie to have less attendance than TF2.In fact, you know what? Even if it manages to have that kind of WOM and indeed the Razzie award, it would still be quite unlikely that it sells less tickets than TF2.

By that argument TDKR must be Razzie worthy as well.

[Elessar]

How can the budget be $450m for 3 movies when Avatar costs like $250-300m 5 years ago? Bullshiiiiit.

 

It's not the whole budget, it's what they will spend in NZ.

[dashrendar44]

Well it's the only option if A2 only makes 450m, so we better learn to deal with it just in case Cameron loses his fucking mind and decides to pull off an Uwe Boll on A2.

 

You mean punching the crap out of critics faces?

 

[vc2002]

If you're going by the weekend run on BoxOffice mojo that isn't entirely accurate given how old it was.

But it was at 307 domestic not 400, sorry my memory escapes me. So a 34% drop,

so if Avatar 2 has a 30% drop that would place it at around 534m. However account for less 3D and it might be closer to 470-500m

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars_%28film%29#Box_office

 

"It replaced Jaws as the highest-earning film in North America just six months into release,^[98] eventually earning over $220 million during its initial theatrical run"  "Reissues in 1978, 1979, 1981, and 1982 brought its cumulative gross in Canada and the U.S. to $323 million."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Empire_Strikes_Back#Box_office

 

"It earned $209,398,025 during its first 1980 run in the United States."

 

So the initial runs are

ANH: 220m

ESB: 209m

 

That's a 5% drop.