Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

R1 still hasn't had china yet but they are truly spectacular you have that right.

 

Also fully expect Star Wars 8 to make over 50% of it's gross from domestic.

 

China will give Rogue one like 50 Million, OS under domestic for R1 is all but certain. Might end up being a 52% Domestic  48% OS ratio

Yeah, I think 50% Domestic for EP8 is fairly likely.

 

[The Futurist]

22 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

600th page. i come back here every 100 pages to see if the discourse in this thread has changed in any sort of way. let me check....

 

 

 

 

 

Please allow me :

 

- James Cameron is the Tony Stark of directors. He changed Hollywood forever.

- Avatar is an average/Mediocre film that only did well because of the 3d Novelty.

- Avatar 2 will do less than Avatar One, meaning flop.

- These movies will never get released because James Cameron is a lazy bum.

- Nobody cares about Avatar 2, Avatar left no footpring in pop culture.

- Avatar did way better than the Star Wars at the box office WW, hence nerd rage since 2009.

- James Cameron will James Cameron because he is James Cameron.

 

Wash Rince Repeat until December 2018 (2020?)

Edited January 4, 2017 by The Futurist

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

 

Please allow me :

 

- James Cameron is the Tony Stark of directors. He changed Hollywood forever.

- Avatar is an average/Mediocre film that only did well because of the 3d Novelty.

- Avatar 2 will do less than Avatar One, meaning flop.

- These movies will never get released because James Cameron is a lazy bum.

- Nobody cares about Avatar 2, Avatar left no footpring in pop culture.

- Avatar did way better than the Star Wars at the box office WW, hence nerd rage since 2009.

- James Cameron will James Cameron because he is James Cameron.

 

Wash Rince Repeat until December 2018 (2020?)

 

BKB was responsable for most of those points to be fair. An endless amount of times as well lol.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

 

Please allow me :

 

- James Cameron is the Tony Stark of directors. He changed Hollywood forever.

- Avatar is an average/Mediocre film that only did well because of the 3d Novelty.

- Avatar 2 will do less than Avatar One, meaning flop.

- These movies will never get released because James Cameron is a lazy bum.

- Nobody cares about Avatar 2, it left no footpring in pop culture.

- Avatar did way better than the Star Wars at the box office WW, hence nerd rage since 2009.

- James Cameron will James Cameron because he is James Cameron.

 

Wash Rince Repeat until December 2018 (2020?)

 

A couple to add

 

- This thread is a cesspool I'll be back in 2040 when it's released

- MODERATION: This isn't an all things Cameron thread

Edited January 4, 2017 by IronJimbo

[Dementeleus]

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Let's be honest though Tele, the film is going to be good and you will enjoy it. With that out of the way you might aswell care about it's gross.

 

It'll make plenty even if it nose-dives from the first. So even there, not much to worry about.

[aabattery]

It's crazy to think that this could have the biggest ever drop between sequels and still make 2 billion. To be honest though, I think this might only squeak past a billion (which is still nothing to scoff at). Everyone I've talked to about it kind of just doesn't give a shit about it anymore. I am looking forward to it though, I did enjoy the first.

Edited January 5, 2017 by AABATTERY

[Dementeleus]

Just now, AABATTERY said:

Everyone I've talked to about it kind of just doesn't give a shit about it anymore. 

 

Just wait until the first trailer hits.

[Porthos]

Expecting historic results in box office is near madness IMO.  I don't want to say "Always bet the under on predictions"...  But, well, if one does that each and every time, no exceptions, you'll probably come out ahead in the long run.

 

But, then again, I thought the talk of TFA sniffing Avatar DOM was near madness as well, so what do I know?

 

(As it is, I'm still having to talk myself into Ep 8 > 725 DOM and I will be downright surprised if it crosses 850 DOM)

 

I look at it this way:  Can James Cameron defy the odds again and smash box office records?  Sure.  'Can' being the operative word.

 

Should I expect him to?  No, I should not.  And that's because it takes a confluences of factors all to align just right, with the quality of the movie and whatever technological advances occurring being just some of them.  

 

NB:  I also have the in-built cynicism and pessimism that only a long suffering sports fan can truly have (recent success from some teams, be damned).  Being a Democrat in the US doesn't exactly help in that department, either.

[Elessar]

9 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

It's crazy to think that this could have the biggest ever drop between sequels and still make 2 billion. 

 

Really? I'm sure there's stuff that dropped bigger than that...

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

It's crazy to think that this could have the biggest ever drop between sequels and still make 2 billion. To be honest though, I think this might only squeak past a billion (which is still nothing to scoff at). Everyone I've talked to about it kind of just doesn't give a shit about it anymore. I am looking forward to it though, I did enjoy the first.

 

This film is making over 500m from China alone, your anecdotes have no power!

[aabattery]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

Really? I'm sure there's stuff that dropped bigger than that...

 

Biggest is Through the Looking Glass right? That was about 700M. Avatar could drop 788M and still be over 2B.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

This film is making over 500m from China alone, your anecdotes have no power!

 

Well, 1 billion IS over 500m, so I guess that's a true statement from your point of view.

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, 1 billion IS over 500m, so I guess that's a true statement from your point of view.

 

from a certain point of view his prediction is evil

Edited January 5, 2017 by IronJimbo

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

 

Biggest is Through the Looking Glass right? That was about 700M. Avatar could drop 788M and still be over 2B.

 

Well, yeah, in absolute terms perhaps. I was thinking the percentage drop.

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Expecting historic results in box office is near madness IMO.  I don't want to say "Always bet the under on predictions"...  But, well, if one does that each and every time, no exceptions, you'll probably come out ahead in the long run.

 

But, then again, I thought the talk of TFA sniffing Avatar DOM was near madness as well, so what do I know?

 

(As it is, I'm still having to talk myself into Ep 8 > 725 DOM and I will be downright surprised if it crosses 850 DOM)

 

I look at it this way:  Can James Cameron defy the odds again and smash box office records?  Sure.  'Can' being the operative word.

 

Should I expect him to?  No, I should not.  And that's because it takes a confluences of factors all to align just right, with the quality of the movie and whatever technological advances occurring being just some of them.  

 

NB:  I also have the in-built cynicism and pessimism that only a long suffering sports fan can truly have (recent success from some teams, be damned).  Being a Democrat in the US doesn't exactly help in that department, either.

 

So what are your Avatar predictions then? I really don't see how this movie doesn't rock overseas.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Well, yeah, in absolute terms perhaps. I was thinking the percentage drop.

 

There's been some truly atrocious sequels by percentage drop over the years, though.  Think we need some sort of minimum box office threshold (adj or not).

 

For instance The Mask ---> Son of the Mask had a 83.6 drop WW (and an 85.8 drop DOM).  UNADJUSTED. I'm sure there's worse, but once we're getting into the mid 80s, I'm not sure what the point is looking for worse.

[Dementeleus]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

So what are your Avatar predictions then? I really don't see how this movie doesn't rock overseas.

 

The huge question mark is the strength of the dollar, not to mention various other significant economies. It could sell close to the same number of tickets and still fall well sort of the original.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

The huge question mark is the strength of the dollar, not to mention various other significant economies. It could sell close to the same number of tickets and still fall well sort of the original.

 

Pretty sure Trump won't make the dollar stronger, it will be interesting to see.

However it doesn't seem like those thinking A2 will do much worse are taking that into account. They look to be going solely by "no one likes Avatar anymore" and "sequels do worse".

Edited January 5, 2017 by IronJimbo

[Mojoguy]

The huge question mark is the strength of the dollar, not to mention various other significant economies. It could sell close to the same number of tickets and still fall well sort of the original.

Didn't that happen with the Hobbit movies and LOTR?

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

So what are your Avatar predictions then? I really don't see how this movie doesn't rock overseas.

 

Waaaaay too early to tell.  Like amazingly way too early.   But 1.7b to 2.5b sounds about right.  Which is a hell of a range, but it's not unheard of for sequels to have wide ranges.  

 

But that's a pure 'pull out of my ass' guess without running a single comparison number, which is what I'd do before actually committing to anything. Or even thinking about it all that much.

 

So, no, don't quote me on that.   It's a pure gut instinct/guesstimate on my part.