Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[The Panda]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

2.78b

Sorry, only count first run theater grosses 

[TomCruiseTop]

2 hours ago, New Year New Panda said:

Avatar has an average running time of 162 minutes.  Meanwhile, MCU movies only have an opening montage of 30 seconds!  That means you’d have to see 324 MCU movies just to match one Avatar movie!

 

No Wonder the GA turned out in spades for an average of 2.74b for the Avatar franchise meanwhile only a measly average of 60m or so trailer views for the MCU franchise (Which is GREATLY inflated by the IW and Avengers outliers)

This might be pertinent if this were the Run Time Theory Forums, although I guess false equivalence is the bread and butter thinking of those without the mental capacity to appreciate JC. 

[Lothar]

One thing JC didn't care was how much box office These movies will make. He made these movies from his heart didn't care about any timeframe even I don't care about time I want good movie like Avatar 1 if it's like the first one then We can easily expect 3B+

[The Panda]

Honestly, this movie could pull 750m WW and things would still be well and good.

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Honestly, this movie could pull 750m WW and things would still be well and good.

 Well, given it's at the very worst 500m in China, I don't see how 250m from Everywhere (inc. dom) except China is "well and good" :/ 

[The Panda]

Just now, feasby007 said:

 Well, given it's at the very worst 500m in China, I don't see how 250m from Everywhere (inc. dom) except China is "well and good" :/ 

1. Wasn’t my prediction

 

2. 500m is not the worst it could do in China

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Lothar said:

One thing JC didn't care was how much box office These movies will make. He made these movies from his heart didn't care about any timeframe even I don't care about time I want good movie like Avatar 1 if it's like the first one then We can easily expect 3B+

That is a really strange assumption to project into someone (as if someone could know something like this, how could you ?).

 

I am pretty convinced he cared a lot how much those movies will make at the box office, when he made the studio double Titanic budget it must have been on is mind and the way him and is team talked about that (it will play action for the boy and romance for the girl and be the biggest movie or look like too romance for the boys and too action for the girl and flop) it was a very calculated pulse on world audience and a very calculated attempt at making a lot of money. It shows quite a bit.

 

19 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Honestly, this movie could pull 750m WW and things would still be well and good.

 

Seem limit to me, below 30% retention rate with a world market that grew quite a bit in that time and an industry that got more dependent on theatrical, specially in the context they want to make 3 other sequel with giants budget (and be worth Cameron time money wise, if he want to keep is 20% first dollar gross point deal and making 9 figures by movies) with the usual drop sequels tend to have, they probably want more room than that. You can expect what, a 33% drop from Avatar 2 to Avatar 5 for a not bad run for a franchise, that would put avatar 5 at 495m WW.

 

P.S. And yes, I also doubt very much that 500m is the catastrophic worst case scenario in any market, including China.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Barnack

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That is a really strange assumption to project into someone (as if someone could know something like this, how could you ?).

 

I am pretty convinced he cared a lot how much those movies will make at the box office, when he made the studio double Titanic budget it must have been on is mind and the way him and is team talked about that (it will play action for the boy and romance for the girl and be the biggest movie or look like too romance for the boys and too action for the girl and flop) it was a very calculated pulse on world audience and a very calculated attempt at making a lot of money. It shows quite a bit.

 

 

Seem limit to me, below 30% retention rate with a world market that grew quite a bit in that time and an industry that got more dependent on theatrical, specially in the context they want to make 3 other sequel with giants budget (and be worth Cameron time money wise, if he want to keep is 20% first dollar gross point deal and making 9 figures by movies) with the usual drop sequels tend to have, they probably want more room than that. You can expect what, a 33% drop from Avatar 2 to Avatar 5 for a not bad run for a franchise, that would put avatar 5 at 495m WW.

 

P.S. And yes, I also doubt very much that 500m is the catastrophic worst case scenario in any market, including China.

Wasn’t saying I think 750m was going to happen.  I was only saying it wouldn’t be a disaster for that number to happen.

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Wasn’t saying I think 750m was going to happen.  I was only saying it wouldn’t be a disaster for that number to happen.

Fully got what you were saying, I was putting doubt that if it happen (specially on a China heavy scenario) that it would not be a disaster, at least if we define disaster bar as = putting doubt into the 3 sequels plans.

 

Imagine a 150dbo/300intl/300 china type of run, for an around 275 to 290m in rental for Avatar 2 in a over 40b global market place...

 

Alice 2 retention

Domestic: 23%

intl minus china: 24%

 

Avatar 2 retention

Domestic: 20%

intl minus china: 16.5%

 

Lot worst retention than Alice does sound like a disaster.

 

And a good 20% worst than that adjusted for inflation (and a imagine around 40-50% worst than that adjusted for market share).

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2018 by Barnack

[aabattery]

Disaster might be too strong a word for it but 750M certainly wouldn't be very good, especially when you consider how much money is gonna be sunk into these movies.

[TomCruiseTop]

Technically speaking all of the sequels could make $0 and the entire franchise would still make profit based on the gross of the first movie alone. 

 

Of course that isn't going to happen. 

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

Disaster might be too strong a word for it but 750M certainly wouldn't be very good, especially when you consider how much money is gonna be sunk into these movies.

All the speculation of A2 making sub-2B are ridiculous, it's about as crazy as me speculating about TLJ making over half of Avatar's gross, which we all know isn't going to happen. 

 

 

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Technically speaking all of the sequels could make $0 and the entire franchise would still make profit based on the gross of the first movie alone. 

 

Of course that isn't going to happen. 

Avatar made a lot of money that is for sure, but.......

 

Fox filmed entertainment division (movies + tv + merch):

 

Year are june 30 to june 30

Operating income

2008: 1,236

2009:   848

2010: 1,349 (that Avatar moment record breaking moment)

2011:   927

 

Depending on how much FOx are financing the 4 news one, I am not sure it would be fully covered by what they made out of Avatar.

 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

46 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

All the speculation of A2 making sub-2B are ridiculous, it's about as crazy as me speculating about TLJ making over half of Avatar's gross, which we all know isn't going to happen. 

 

 

...that 0.5A ... isn't it other forum member who severely and insistently uses it anytime he has a chance (and even not having the chance, he just mention it for his own onanism-workout) 

[IronJimbo]

5 hours ago, Lothar said:

One thing JC didn't care was how much box office These movies will make. He made these movies from his heart didn't care about any timeframe even I don't care about time I want good movie like Avatar 1 if it's like the first one then We can easily expect 3B+

We're lucky to have him we truly are, people get mad at me for pointing out studio movies have no soul.

 

1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

...that 0.5A ... isn't it other forum member who severely and insistently uses it anytime he has a chance (and even not having the chance, he just mention it for his own onanism-workout) 

0.5A is great because it adds some much needed perspective , you have to respect the Box Office King.

Edited January 22, 2018 by IronJimbo

[TomCruiseTop]

10 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

...that 0.5A ... isn't it other forum member who severely and insistently uses it anytime he has a chance (and even not having the chance, he just mention it for his own onanism-workout) 

Not nearly as much as certain other forum members who severely and insistently use SWs avatars, names, etc. 

 

Sometimes I forget I'm on a box office theory forum and think I'm on a Star Wars Roleplay Message Board with the amount of 'Darths' and other names I see. 

 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

10 hours ago, Barnack said:

Avatar made a lot of money that is for sure, but.......

 

Fox filmed entertainment division (movies + tv + merch):

 

Year are june 30 to june 30

Operating income

2008: 1,236

2009:   848

2010: 1,349 (that Avatar moment record breaking moment)

2011:   927

 

Depending on how much FOx are financing the 4 news one, I am not sure it would be fully covered by what they made out of Avatar.

 

 

Very true and good points. I was merely talking about: 

 

Avatar Gross - $2.78B 

 

Budget of Avatar including marketing = $600m 

 

Budget of the sequels including marketing = $2B

 

So on paper they still make profit.  

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Very true and good points. I was merely talking about: 

 

Avatar Gross - $2.78B 

 

Budget of Avatar including marketing = $600m 

 

Budget of the sequels including marketing = $2B

 

So on paper they still make profit.  

Now imagine the budget of Avatar when you include James Cameron total compensation ;), people residual, share that went to third party investor, etc... (I imagine he got 20/25% of the gross or something like that), real total cost must be at least 1B, maybe much more.

 

That why you only see the studio making "just" 400-500m more than their usual year, not some billion more type of figures.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Barnack

[RobinHood26]

9 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Very true and good points. I was merely talking about: 

 

Avatar Gross - $2.78B 

 

Budget of Avatar including marketing = $600m 

 

Budget of the sequels including marketing = $2B

 

So on paper they still make profit.  

 

Thats not how stuff works. 

 

 

760 Domestic = 418m

 

204 China = 51m

 

1,842 OS = 736m

 

1.2b 

 

Edit: Then give James his backend off that 1.2B. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Jay Hollywood

[Eric is Quiet]

 

OMG PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN