Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, tawasal said:

I don't really like the fanboyism of James Cameron fans in this forum. But I feel like the people supporting or want AEG to outgross Avatar will pull everything they perceive to be an advantage for Avatar and try to claim that it's run was less impressive than what AEG is achieving, to be biased towards AEG, when they don't do the same for AEG. 

 

They don't consider the time difference between the two releases and the state of each market now and then. You are only pointing to one thing (ER) to say Avatar's perfomance is less than that of AEG, without considering everything else that might point to Avatar's box office run in positive light. I feel like we are not seeing are fair assessment of both movies performances. 

 

Thats why i dislike adjusting Avatars run, no matter if for Inflation or exchange rate ot whatever. Fact is, it grossed 2,78B WW. That number stands and wont change and that is the number Endgame has to beat if it wants to dethrone Avatar.

[stealthyfrog]

3 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I don't really like the fanboyism of James Cameron fans in this forum. But I feel like the people supporting or want AEG to outgross Avatar will pull everything they perceive to be an advantage for Avatar and try to claim that it's run was less impressive than what AEG is achieving, to be biased towards AEG, when they don't do the same for AEG. 

 

They don't consider the time difference between the two releases and the state of each market now and then. You are only pointing to one thing (ER) to say Avatar's perfomance is less than that of AEG, without considering everything else that might point to Avatar's box office run in positive light. I feel like we are not seeing are fair assessment of both movies performances. 

How dare you act reasonable

[NCsoft]

41 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

If we are down to simply comparing how many people actually watched Avatar, even Infinity War will have a chance to top it.

I don't know how many tickets Avatar vs Endgame would have sold globally, but did you just claim Infinity War has a chance to top Avatar in total global tickets sold? A 2.787 B worldwide grosser in 2009 fail to sell as many ticket as a 2.04B grosser in 2018, despite 9 years of global inflation and 740M box office differences? I can maybe believe endgame total global ticket sold would be similar to Avatar, but that just means global inflation and exchange rate differences cancels each other out... Which is fine, there's still market expansion to talk about 

 

What market expansion is arguing though, has nothing to do with how many ticket a film has originally sold, but has more to do with How many ticket it would have sold (had it remained a comparable sized hit), in the much more expanded global markets. For example, an Avatar sized hit in China would not have sold the same amount of tickets as back in 2009, there's like 8 times more tickets sold in China per year now compared to then. I bet the same situation applies in many other rapidly expanding countries, including India 

 

Basically, what is the true market ceiling globally for a single film in 2019? global total box office is much bigger than 2009. If a film can gross 2.787B in 2009 (still not the global ceiling, Avatar did not reach domestic ceiling), then what would be similar proportion gross in 2019? Certainly if a film barely passes Avatar in 2019 globally, that's not the same as as doing 2.787B in 2009.

I don't have the data to total global box office in 2009 vs 2018, do you have that data Charlie?

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[tawasal]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Thats why i dislike adjusting Avatars run, no matter if for Inflation or exchange rate ot whatever. Fact is, it grossed 2,78B WW. That number stands and wont change and that is the number Endgame has to beat if it wants to dethrone Avatar.

Yeah, if/when AEG does make more than Avatar it fully deserves that crown just as Avatar did when it dethroned Titanic. 

"Praise given when it is deserved, even if one is reluctant to give it." Maybe this is a practice some need to apply more. 

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Thats why i dislike adjusting Avatars run, no matter if for Inflation or exchange rate ot whatever. Fact is, it grossed 2,78B WW. That number stands and wont change and that is the number Endgame has to beat if it wants to dethrone Avatar.

Here is the main misunderstanding though:

I don't think anyone here would not acknowledge if Endgame defeats Avatar globally in unadjusted gross, if endgame grosses more than 2.78B, I will certainly acknowledge that it is the new highest grosser, and that endgame's record will be legitimate.

However, since we do not live in a vacuum, what is fun about box office is that we're living through a dynamic global environment, where huge market expansion and some level of global inflation are happening each year. So I think, as box office fanatics, we certainly have the right to gauge what a similar sized hit to Avatar or Titanic would have achieved today, and which of those historical runs are more impressive and harder to achieve.

These facts don't just go away:

1. Avatar set the previous Titanic worldwide record by increasing it by 50%

2. Avatar grosses 2.78B in a global market with significantly less capacity than 2019, thus significantly lower ceiling, due to markets like China, Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, India etc.....

3. Avatar almost tripled the next highest grossing film in 2009.

4. Avatar tripled the highest grossing film ever in China, at $200M, when the market was almost 10X smaller.

[NCsoft]

If someone has the information for total global box office yearly gross from 2010 to 2019, I would love to have that, it would just be so interesting to see, and to gauge what global ceiling for a single film may be. The globally ceiling for 2019 is certainly far far beyond 2.8B, that's for sure  

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I don't know how many tickets Avatar vs Endgame would have sold globally, but did you just claim Infinity War has a change to top Avatar in total global tickets sold? 

 

Yes, I said so. Endgame will easily beat Avatar in ticket sale, Its Infinity War that might be able to get similar numbers.

 

Reason being, the numbers Endgame did were more in the country with lower ticket prices while Avatar did majority business in Europe, Japan, Australia and North America which has world's highest ticket prices.

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I never said anything about what was bigger, jeez you Cameronites are always about what which movie it the biggest, are ya'll trying to compensate for something...?

 

I was talking about the pent up demand the movie built for almost 15 years.  

He's literally cornered the sequel into a position that a 700 DOM 2.5B WW is a disastrous failure.

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yes, I said so. Endgame will easily beat Avatar in ticket sale, Its Infinity War that might be able to get similar numbers.

 

Reason being, the numbers Endgame did were more in the country with lower ticket prices while Avatar did majority business in Europe, Japan, Australia and North America which has world's highest ticket prices.

End game with 2009 exchange rates does 3.5 billion even factoring ticket price inflation.

[Sheldon Cr]

29 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I don't know how many tickets Avatar vs Endgame would have sold globally, but did you just claim Infinity War has a chance to top Avatar in total global tickets sold? A 2.787 B worldwide grosser in 2009 fail to sell as many ticket as a 2.04B grosser in 2018, despite 9 years of global inflation and 740M box office differences? I can maybe believe endgame total global ticket sold would be similar to Avatar, but that just means global inflation and exchange rate differences cancels each other out... Which is fine, there's still market expansion to talk about 

 

What market expansion is arguing though, has nothing to do with how many ticket a film has originally sold, but has more to do with How many ticket it would have sold (had it remained a comparable sized hit), in the much more expanded global markets. For example, an Avatar sized hit in China would not have sold the same amount of tickets as back in 2009, there's like 8 times more tickets sold in China per year now compared to then. I bet the same situation applies in many other rapidly expanding countries, including India 

 

Basically, what is the true market ceiling globally for a single film in 2019? global total box office is much bigger than 2009. If a film can gross 2.787B in 2009 (still not the global ceiling, Avatar did not reach domestic ceiling), then what would be similar proportion gross in 2019? Certainly if a film barely passes Avatar in 2019 globally, that's not the same as as doing 2.787B in 2009.

I don't have the data to total global box office in 2009 vs 2018, do you have that data Charlie?

 

 

 

School em NC💪😉

[NCsoft]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yes, I said so. Endgame will easily beat Avatar in ticket sale, Its Infinity War that might be able to get similar numbers.

  

Reason being, the numbers Endgame did were more in the country with lower ticket prices while Avatar did majority business in Europe, Japan, Australia and North America which has world's highest ticket prices.

That's a lot of mathematical gymnastics, you'd have to adjust for $740M of differences + global inflation over the past 10 years for market that didn't deflate (which is a lot of market), for  perhaps easily a massive 900M+ inflation adjusted difference just to compensate for the price difference in advanced markets... 

 

However, even if that turns out to be true, and I only say that because it is you would made the claim. Global box office works in a different way, as you're aware, a ticket in Europe, will naturally add more to  box office total than a ticket in Vietnam or India, that's just how it is... So if Avatar is adjusted for global inflation, certainly global admission number won't be looked at the same way across different countries, inflation would be on a country by country basis, which means some Europe Market may not have inflation, some may be slightly deflated, but the impressive ticket sold by Avatar in Europe + Europe ticket prices still stands, there is inflation in Asian markets, there is inflation in North American market (domestically Avatar adjust to $870M+), all of those inflation come to  compensate exchange rate differences. Then the bigger juggernaut of global market expansion which is something you never discuss, if Avatar were in play in 2019, would it possibly have an admission disadvantage? Given the expansion in tickets sold in developing markets, especially China?

 

The more interesting question, is how much global box office ceiling has increased over the past few years, and how would something like Avatar could have benefited from it?

Knowing that global box office in 2019 and much bigger than 2009, knowing that where people loved Avatar the most, many Asian markets (especially China), has grown so much, with China about 10 times, and still make the argument that 2.8B in 2019 in potentially more impressive 2.787B in 2009, that requires a lot of mental gymnastics.

[Sheldon Cr]

18 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

End game with 2009 exchange rates does 3.5 billion even factoring ticket price inflation.

its obvious ticket sales are way beneath Avatar. Lol just look at the markets ans ticket prices. Lol 2009 and its 2019 where.movie prices domestically and increased  25-70% on average ontop of the obvious larger markets since 09.

 

Lets not even entertain that fanboy illogical nonsense all. When you see far bigger numbers than every other movie from Asia to Europe and it dwarfing what Avatar 09 made Os. Maybe that will wake up these E.g folks.  Bo mojo or any major site is not going to compare E.g. to Avatars run because there is no comparison. Avatar in the same situation would have hit 3.8-4.1b. E.g. for example can barely outmatch a 2009 movie and you have 300%-500% increase in so many markets and way more screens to play your film, your not about that Pandora life.

 

Avatar 2 will show what can be done in todays os market.

Expect 170-230mil from UK and 950-1.2bil from China for starters. Kal knows and watch the embarrassing gap of a JC film vs all the 1.5 to 2b grossers. We'll likely put a breaking of the domestic bench mark crown as well by a sizable gap knowing James Cameron supporters.

 

Just keep doing what you do JC. Terminate the pretenders

 

😉

Edited May 4, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

 End game with 2009 exchange rates does 3.5 billion even factoring ticket price inflation.

This is just ridiculous, what is the  global market capacity in 2009, is it even comparable to 2019?

According to your logic, endgame is this gigantic globally once in a century cinematic event, that was dragged down by poor 2019. 

Were it released in 2009, where the worldwide box office market is much smaller, where barely any film has even grossed more than 1B, and where most developing markets were tiny, where China (which is about to give endgame $630M) was 10 times smaller and had a highest grossing film of $67M, and  ignore 10 years of global inflation, endgame would somehow still churn out more than $650M in excess what it would have in 2019 globally.

God tier mental gymnastics if I've ever seen one.

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

Avatar in 2009 with 2019 foreign market growth and global inflation makes more than 2019 endgame with 2009 ER

 

I mean Avatar probably missed out on well over a billie from China

Edited May 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[NCsoft]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 End game with 2009 exchange rates does 3.5 billion even factoring ticket price inflation.

Ok, I'm stopping making fun of that post.

Even if taken at face value, you "calculation" is flawed, Endgame is selling massive amount of tickets in developing markets where inflation might be able to cancel out exchange rate differences, endgame is not selling that much tickets in Europe (where there's not much inflation), to compensate for domestic inflation (North America) and Asian inflation, and still leaving a giganic $650M in excess of its gross today....

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[NCsoft]

Why won't people look at Global box office total 2019 vs Global box office total in 2009, why won't market expansion be considered? Oh I know, it doesn't look very good, does it?

Oh, the god almighty 2009 with its massive exchange rate advantages, if films were only all released then, the massive exchange advantages would boost our films today so much.

Oh wait...

1	Avatar	Fox	$2,777.2	$749.8	27.0%	$2,027.5	73.0%
2	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$934.4	$302.0	32.3%	$632.5	67.7%
3	Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	Fox	$886.7	$196.6	22.2%	$690.1	77.8%
4	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$836.3	$402.1	48.1%	$434.2	51.9%
5	2012	Sony	$769.7	$166.1	21.6%	$603.6	78.4%
6	Up	BV	$735.1	$293.0	39.9%	$442.1	60.1%
7	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	Sum.	$709.7	$296.6	41.8%	$413.1	58.2%
8	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$524.0	$209.0	39.9%	$315.0	60.1%
9	Angels & Demons	Sony	$485.9	$133.4	27.4%	$352.6
10	The Hangover	WB	$467.5

 

Oh wait... 2017

1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$1,332.5	$620.2	46.5%	$712.4	53.5%
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$1,263.5	$504.0	39.9%	$759.5	60.1%
3	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$1,236.0	$226.0	18.3%	$1,010.0	81.7%
4	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$1,034.8	$264.6	25.6%	$770.2	74.4%
5	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$962.1	$404.5	42.0%	$557.6	58.0%
6	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$880.2	$334.2	38.0%	$546.0	62.0%
7	Wolf Warrior 2	HC	$870.3	$2.7	0.3%	$867.6	99.7%
8	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$863.8	$389.8	45.1%	$473.9	54.9%
9	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$854.0	$315.1	36.9%	$538.9	63.1%
10	Wonder Woman	WB	$821.8	$412.6	50.2%	$409.3	49.8%

 

Oh wait... 2018

1	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$2,048.4	$678.8	33.1%	$1,369.5	66.9%
2	Black Panther	BV	$1,346.9	$700.1	52.0%	$646.9	48.0%
3	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Uni.	$1,309.5	$417.7	31.9%	$891.8	68.1%
4	Incredibles 2	BV	$1,242.8	$608.6	49.0%	$634.2	51.0%
5	Aquaman	WB	$1,147.7	$335.1	29.2%	$812.6	70.8%
6	Bohemian Rhapsody	Fox	$902.6	$216.4	24.0%	$686.2	76.0%
7	Venom (2018)	Sony	$855.0	$213.5	25.0%	$641.5	75.0%
8	Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Par.	$791.1	$220.2	27.8%	$571.0	72.2%
9	Deadpool 2	Fox	$778.9	$318.5	40.9%	$460.5	59.1%
10	Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald	WB	$653.7	$159.6	24.4%	$494.1	75.6%

 

Wait, what happened to those exchange rate advantages

You know what the natural conclusion is?

Global inflation + market expansion >>>>>>>> whatever exchange rate advantage 2009 might have.

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

That's a lot of mathematical gymnastics, you'd have to adjust for $740M of differences + global inflation over the past 10 years for market that didn't deflate (which is a lot of market), for  perhaps easily a massive 900M+ inflation adjusted difference just to compensate for the price difference in advanced markets... 

 

However, even if that turns out to be true, and I only say that because it is you would made the claim. Global box office works in a different way, as you're aware, a ticket in Europe, will naturally add more to  box office total than a ticket in Vietnam or India,

That's the entire point. That's reason why Infinity War will be close/or top Avatar. Let Endgame end its run, I will surely do compile the most watched films worldwide.

 

#WhateverItTakes

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's the entire point. That's reason why Infinity War will be close/or top Avatar. Let Endgame end its run, I will surely do compile the most watched films worldwide.

 

#WhateverItTakes

wasn't endgame meant to make 45m yesterday!

#numberscan'tbebiased

Edited May 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[cdsacken]

11 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is just ridiculous, what is the  global market capacity in 2009, is it even comparable to 2019?

According to your logic, endgame is this gigantic globally once in a century cinematic event, that was dragged down by poor 2019. 

Were it released in 2009, where the worldwide box office market is much smaller, where barely any film has even grossed more than 1B, and where most developing markets are tiny, where China (which is about to give endgame $630M) was 10 times smaller and had a highest grossing film of $67M, and also ignore 10 years of global inflation, endgame would somehow churn out more than $650M than what it would have in 2019.

God tier mental gymnastics if I've ever seen one.

 

I never said if released in 2009

Don't be dumb. I said with 2009 currency rates but factoring in ticket price adjustments.  Thanks 

Edited May 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

wasn't endgame meant to make 45m yesterday!

#numberscan'tbebiased

Yeah that was the number required to get 174mn weekend (~+100mn Avatar OW), sadly now it will only make +80mn Avatar OW.

 

Never mind, it still made enough to cross Avatar Domestic total in 17/18 days and Titanic worldwide numbers in 12 days.

 

If that's not enough, its still 12mn more than highest single day of Avatar.

Edited May 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder