Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Haven't posted in god knows how long. Just wanted to come and share my pain that Avatar will be beaten by End Game. Still in 10 years, only one film beat AVATAR, and that was a SW film, and arguably the most anticipated film of all time!.

Been watching all the Marvel films, in order the past couple of weeks, and well i'm not keen on a lot of them. I hate the Avengers films the most funnily enough. Black Panther was probably my fave so far (I'm up to Thor Ragnarok).

I still think Endgame is going to see some big drops after this weekend. TFA is safe domestic imo (thanks god), and i also think AVATAR will hold onto the worldwide crown. I pray to god anyway. I keep hearing about Endgames stellar wom, but thats not what i'm reading on none fanboy forums.

Hail AVATAR, and hail AVATAR 2 to put magic back at the top of the box ofice, and not this nerdy throw away shite!.😀

Cinemas score is a sham so I wouldn't trust that WOM.

 

I think its got enough juice to beat Avatar but I remember thinking the same thing for IW and TItanic then it fell over a 100m short.

[Sheldon Cr]

36 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Cinemas score is a sham so I wouldn't trust that WOM.

 

I think its got enough juice to beat Avatar but I remember thinking the same thing for IW and TItanic then it fell over a 100m short.

Indeed. Avatar hasn't yielded yet Jimbo and Stuart.  We may just hang on to the crown after all.

 

---" Outstanding!"

[IronJimbo]

7 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It's not going to open over $200m and still get a 5x.  I'll put money on that right now.

Round 2?

 

Terms are

over 200m and over 5x for me

Over 200m and under 5x for you

Under 200m bet is void

 

I will say if it over 250m that 5x becomes difficult but I'll stick with it

 

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[Sheldon Cr]

44 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Round 2?

 

Terms are

over 200m and over 5x for me

Over 200m and under 5x for you

Under 200m bet is void

 

I will say if it over 250m that 5x becomes difficult but I'll stick with it

 

 

Agreed if Avatar 2 exceeds 250m Ow its a challenge for a 5x, but its definitely possible for this legend in the making.

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, stuart360 said:

Haven't posted in god knows how long. Just wanted to come and share my pain that Avatar will be beaten by End Game. Still in 10 years, only one film beat AVATAR, and that was a SW film, and arguably the most anticipated film of all time!.

 Been watching all the Marvel films, in order the past couple of weeks, and well i'm not keen on a lot of them. I hate the Avengers films the most funnily enough. Black Panther was probably my fave so far (I'm up to Thor Ragnarok).

 I still think Endgame is going to see some big drops after this weekend. TFA is safe domestic imo (thanks god), and i also think AVATAR will hold onto the worldwide crown. I pray to god anyway. I keep hearing about Endgames stellar wom, but thats not what i'm reading on none fanboy forums.

 Hail AVATAR, and hail AVATAR 2 to put magic back at the top of the box ofice, and not this nerdy throw away shite!.😀

If early signs of somewhat weaker domestic legs hold true, and that demand has already burnt off too much, several things need to simultaneously happen for Avatar to keep the crown.

1. China needs to stop at around $630M and does not develop some miracle post holiday legs (probably realistic).

2. Domestic does 850M or so (any lower than that probably way too pessimistic).

3. International late legs turns out to be subpar and yield a total of less than 1.3B

Even in this situation, it would still be extremely close, and Disney will try to fudge/ drag it over anyway. Chance is not on our side, but hope is not all lost I suppose.

 

Either way, culmination of 22 films and 11 years, 10 years of global inflation, massive market expansion (China 10 times etc..), and much more available theater counts globally including premium showings, much higher global ceiling for a single film ==Barely inch over an original film from 10 years ago? It's not erasing Avatar's legacy, regardless of outcome.

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[KP1025]

Endgame seems to be slowing down a bit, but I agree it will most likely take the WW crown still. That said, Avatar 2 can still be the first film to pass the $1 billion DOM and $3 billion WW milestones. 

[stuart360]

Even if End Game does beat AVATAR worldwide, AVATAR still has a very good chance at keeping its $2.027BIL internatonal record, a very good chance. So AVATAR could well still hold onto one of the 3 big records.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Even if End Game does beat AVATAR worldwide, AVATAR still has a very good chance at keeping its $2.027BIL internatonal record, a very good chance. So AVATAR could well still hold onto one of the 3 big records.

10 year anniversary re-release could push to 3b (this year)

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 Cinemas score is a sham so I wouldn't trust that WOM.

  

I think its got enough juice to beat Avatar but I remember thinking the same thing for IW and TItanic then it fell over a 100m short.

I actually held a personal prayer session for Titanic last year 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

10 year anniversary re-release could push to 3b (this year)

I dont know about this year, but i think they might re-release it 1 or 2 months before AVATAR 2, and if they do, 3bil must be in with a shot, especially as hype will be building by then.

[IronJimbo]

Remember Jim talked of being able to re-release Avatar with improvements to the visuals. That combined with all the dolby screens, we may be able to see what Jim saw in the editing room 10 years ago.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I dont know about this year, but i think they might re-release it 1 or 2 months before AVATAR 2, and if they do, 3bil must be in with a shot, especially as hype will be building by then.

I can see that. Would make sense.

 

My thought process behind that not happening is that Avatar 2 will be a giant improvement since Avatar in visuals. Releasing it so close to a wide audience could be damaging.

 

This December if a wide release.

 

Next October for Dolby and imax only re release

Edited May 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Remember Jim talked of being able to re-release Avatar with improvements to the visuals. That combined with all the dolby screens, we may be able to see what Jim saw in the editing room 10 years ago.

I watched AVATAR at 4k the other week, its amazing how good the film still looks. There are parts of it that still look better than anything released since. I can only imagine how good the sequels are going to look.

[IronJimbo]

I think adjusted Jurassic World should be the opening weekend target for Avatar 2.

 

So about $220m.

 

People need to realise that the WOM is going to be deadly, best theatre experience since Titanic, or perhaps ever?

Edited May 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[JimiQ]

26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I think adjusted Jurassic World should be the opening weekend target for Avatar 2.

 

So about $220m.

 

People need to realise that the WOM is going to be deadly, best theatre experience since Titanic, or perhaps ever?

Are you actually predicting smaller OW for A2 than me? 😮 I am thinking around TFA

[charlie Jatinder]

Just to tell, how ER has fucked other films, for this case Endgame and favoured Avatar.

 

Its not only, that Avatar will gross less today but Endgame has lost a lot. E.g.

 

Endgame will gross lc$325mn Approx in Brazil, today that's just about $75mn, back in 2009 rates, that will be $200mn.

 

Similarly India will gross ₹425-450cr, today's that's just $62-65mn, back in Avatar days, that will be $100mn.

 

Same goes for Mexico, Russia, Canada, Australia.

 

I don't feel too sure about it, may be @salvador-232 will give better idea, but Argentina is heading for lc$800mn, today that will be just $18mn approx. At 2009 ER, that is $220mn. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JimiQ said:

Are you actually predicting smaller OW for A2 than me? 😮 I am thinking around TFA

I misworded it.

 

That's the floor, there's no way less people go to see it than Jurassic World on opening weekend.

 

Also Incredibles 2 made $185m aswell.

 

I'll go with $240m for now.

[Deep Wang]

5 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Round 2?

 

Terms are

over 200m and over 5x for me

Over 200m and under 5x for you

Under 200m bet is void

 

I will say if it over 250m that 5x becomes difficult but I'll stick with it

 

 

Of course!

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I misworded it.

 

That's the floor, there's no way less people go to see it than Jurassic World on opening weekend.

 

Also Incredibles 2 made $185m aswell.

 

I'll go with $240m for now.

 

So because an animated movie that people had been dying for(the only Pixar movie people wanted a sequel to) for 15 years made that much, Avatar is guaranteed to make more than that?

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Of course!

 

So because an animated movie that people had been dying for(the only Pixar movie people wanted a sequel to) for 15 years made that much, Avatar is guaranteed to make more than that?

Yes.

 

Avatar was far bigger and one the greatest cinema exeperiences of all time, it was like dreaming with your eyes wide open and revolutionary on many levels.

 

 

 

 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Yes.

 

Avatar was far bigger and one the greatest cinema exeperiences of all time, it was like dreaming with your eyes wide open and revolutionary on many levels.

 

 

I never said anything about what was bigger, jeez you Cameronites are always about what which movie it the biggest, are ya'll trying to compensate for something...?

 

I was talking about the pent up demand the movie built for almost 15 years.