Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

I never said anything about what was bigger, jeez you Cameronites are always about what which movie it the biggest, are ya'll trying to compensate for something...?

 

I was talking about the pent up demand the movie built for almost 15 years.  

"I feel like there was a pent up demand for the movie over the last 15 years"

 

was there?

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

"I feel like there was a pent up demand for the movie over the last 15 years"

 

was there?

Can confirm, even when in School people talked about wanting a Incredibles 2 purely because of the Jack Jack cliffhanger of #1

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Stewart said:

Can confirm, even when in School people talked about wanting a Incredibles 2 purely because of the Jack Jack cliffhanger of #1

Uhhh my buddy bobby fucking brown told me he never heard of The Incredibles when I asked him if he wanted to go to see the sequel

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

"I feel like there was a pent up demand for the movie over the last 15 years"

 

was there?

 

How else do you explain it's opening weekend??  It absolutely decimated Dory's record.

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Uhhh my buddy bobby fucking brown told me he never heard of The Incredibles when I asked him if he wanted to go to see the sequel

So you found a counter example? 

 

Cool.

 

Never said everybody. Move along little Jimbo

[salvador-232]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I don't feel too sure about it, may be @salvador-232 will give better idea, but Argentina is heading for lc$800mn, today that will be just $18mn approx. At 2009 ER, that is $220mn

Inflation in Argentina until 2018 was greater than the fall in ER. 

 

Toy Story 3 did 16m USD with 3,5m admissions in 2010. Coco did 17,9m USD with 3,1m admissions just before the big devaluation last year. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, salvador-232 said:

Inflation in Argentina until 2018 was greater than the fall in ER. 

 

Toy Story 3 did 16m USD with 3,5m admissions in 2010. Coco did 17,9m USD with 3,1m admissions just before the big devaluation last year. 

If I am not wrong, Avatar had 1.7mn admissions and 15mn Gross. How much is Endgame gonna do.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

How else do you explain it's opening weekend??  It absolutely decimated Dory's record.

So to measure pent up demand you have to look at the opening weekend.

 

How does this help without feeling out Avatar 2's weekend?

[salvador-232]

10 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Very well everywhere. The visuals. The music, sounds all come together that make these Avatar events something special. What is your low and max predict for China, Sk and Japan btw?

 

 

-----I 👀 you

Will be crushed without mercy by Minions 2 in Latin America. 

Edit: sorry, confused

Edited May 4, 2019 by salvador-232

[charlie Jatinder]

13 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Avatar if not for snow storms would have had a160-180 m ow and a 7x multi or better in 2009.

 

ffs Avatar barely had 70mn admissions in full run with all that hype and WoM.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2667&p=.htm

 

 

[salvador-232]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

If I am not wrong, Avatar had 1.7mn admissions and 15mn Gross. How much is Endgame gonna do.

Avatar did 2,8m admission and did like 13-14m USD (Fun fact, Avatar didn't even won the year in Argentina) 

 

Endgame is locked to pass 3m admission. Ticket price was 5,7 in OW but is bound to fall (normal is more like 4 dollars) so could do 17m USD plus maybe? 

 

It would be much more with 2017 tickets prices, but since last year inflation hasn't been able to catch the ER

[Pure Spirit]

6 hours ago, NCsoft said:

If early signs of somewhat weaker domestic legs hold true, and that demand has already burnt off too much, several things need to simultaneously happen for Avatar to keep the crown.

1. China needs to stop at around $630M and does not develop some miracle post holiday legs (probably realistic).

2. Domestic does 850M or so (any lower than that probably way too pessimistic).

3. International late legs turns out to be subpar and yield a total of less than 1.3B

Even in this situation, it would still be extremely close, and Disney will try to fudge/ drag it over anyway. Chance is not on our side, but hope is not all lost I suppose.

 

Either way, culmination of 22 films and 11 years, 10 years of global inflation, massive market expansion (China 10 times etc..), and much more available theater counts globally including premium showings, much higher global ceiling for a single film ==Barely inch over an original film from 10 years ago? It's not erasing Avatar's legacy, regardless of outcome.

Disney will try to fudge it, but I’m sure they’re fudging it already, so I wouldn’t worry about it sprouting huge legs at the end. How much “marketing money” can feasibly be spent to pushback Endgame over Avatar if it comes to that? $10M? Maybe. $100M? Highly doubt it. Keeping it in theaters forever won’t work either, hardcore fans have already seen it 5+ times, and we’ve been blitzed with advertising. Besides if it comes to it, Avatar could retake the crown on a re-release shortly before Avatar 2 if Endgame pushes slightly past Avatar.

[Pure Spirit]

4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Just to tell, how ER has fucked other films, for this case Endgame and favoured Avatar.

 

Its not only, that Avatar will gross less today but Endgame has lost a lot. E.g.

 

Endgame will gross lc$325mn Approx in Brazil, today that's just about $75mn, back in 2009 rates, that will be $200mn.

 

Similarly India will gross ₹425-450cr, today's that's just $62-65mn, back in Avatar days, that will be $100mn.

 

Same goes for Mexico, Russia, Canada, Australia.

 

I don't feel too sure about it, may be @salvador-232 will give better idea, but Argentina is heading for lc$800mn, today that will be just $18mn approx. At 2009 ER, that is $220mn. 

If you’re gonna bring up ER, then bringing up ticket price inflation and foreign market expansion is fair game, and Endgame isn’t likely to touch that.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

If you’re gonna bring up ER, then bringing up ticket price inflation and foreign market expansion is fair game, and Endgame isn’t likely to touch that.

Endgame will have 24mn admissions in India, Avatar was barely 11mn.

 

JFYI, in European countries ticket prices are down as Avatar peaked in 3D phase. China Avatar had ~¥45 ATP which is barely 10% less than Endgame. 

 

USA it had some 70mn admits, Endgame will be finalling at 80mn Approx if gross $900mn which seems like the lower limit at the moment.

 

If we are down to simply comparing how many people actually watched Avatar, even Infinity War will have a chance to top it.

Edited May 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame will have 24mn admissions in India, Avatar was barely 11mn.

Oh but of course you're aware that market expansion is by definition "expansion in admission". 

That's why we keep it separate from just ticket inflation, afterall, the 10X growth of Chinese market over the past 10 years is not ticket pricing growing by 10X, India is much open to Hollywood films in 2019 than 2009, isn't it?

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame will have 24mn admissions in India, Avatar was barely 11mn.

 

JFYI, in European countries ticket prices are down as Avatar peaked in 3D phase. China Avatar had ~¥45 ATP which is barely 10% less than Endgame. 

 

USA it had some 70mn admits, Endgame will be finalling at 80mn Approx if gross $900mn which seems like the lower limit at the moment.

 

If we are down to simply comparing how many people actually watched Avatar, even Infinity War will have a chance to top it.

What did other Hollywood films have at this time?

[NCsoft]

9 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

If you’re gonna bring up ER, then bringing up ticket price inflation and foreign market expansion is fair game, and Endgame isn’t likely to touch that.

I have noticed that Charlie does love to talk about ER, but often neglect to discuss ticket inflation and market expansion! I think that there is a reason for that. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What did other Hollywood films have at this time?

Titanic is 24mn. If that satisfy you.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I have noticed that Charlie does love to talk about ER, but often neglect to discuss ticket inflation and market expansion! I think that there is a reason for that. 

Nope, I am all for it. But as @peludo explained the other day, in markets except China, Avatar did bonkers business, the inflation has actually been reducing and they all were mature markets back when Avatar released and now on decline.

 

As I mentioned, I am all in for a comparison on the total admissions for the films.

[tawasal]

I don't really like the fanboyism of James Cameron fans in this forum. But I feel like the people supporting or want AEG to outgross Avatar will pull everything they perceive to be an advantage for Avatar and try to claim that it's run was less impressive than what AEG is achieving, to be biased towards AEG, when they don't do the same for AEG. 

 

They don't consider the time difference between the two releases and the state of each market now and then. You are only pointing to one thing (ER) to say Avatar's perfomance is less than that of AEG, without considering everything else that might point to Avatar's box office run in positive light. I feel like we are not seeing are fair assessment of both movies performances.