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THE MARTIAN | Oct 2, 2015 | Will compete as a comedy at the Golden Globes

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Moving the movie early is a sign of confidence (or not..) but Martian has to contend with London Has Fallen, a sequel to a surprise hit, and The Walk, which looks very interesting. Both of those movies may not be gigantic openers but they might give on-the-fence audience something else to choose. October is crowded with Pan, Steve Jobs, Crimson Peak, Bridge of Spies (Tom Hanks+ Spielberg). November is a  kill box with Spectre, Mockingly 2 & Good Dinosaur. Rings & Peanuts could be unexpected hits. Fall/Holiday is gonna be a bloodbath

 

Bridge of Spies I think is going to be a moderate hit unless it gets the award season legs (same with The Walk), thinking 55-75 domestic.  Pan is weird looking children's film, Crimson Peak is horror, so those two are going after different demos.  Steve Jobs.... Doesn't have Fincher, Leo, or Bale attached, don't think that will be a big hit unless it gets the award season legs like the aforementioned. 

 

Plus I think something opening on the same weekend with The Martian will move, London has Fallen should just move to next year, Feb. perhaps. 

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For all the complaints that October is way too crowded this year (which I won't disagree with), do any of these movies really scream "surefire blockbusters"? Sure, Bridge of Spies will likely do really well, but the sky is most certainly not the limit for a Spielberg/Hanks movie. This isn't 2002.

Edited by filmlover
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For all the complaints that October is way too crowded this year (which I won't disagree with), do any of these movies really scream "surefire blockbusters"? Sure, Bridge of Spies will likely do really well, but the sky is most certainly not the limit for a Spielberg/Hanks movie. This isn't 2002.

 

I should add that these other movies may not be on top of everybody's must-see lists but they clutter the marketplace. Guys looking for action would be split between Jason Bourne without a gun, and King Leonidas kicking ass. I know Martian is the more cerebral of the two but there are some audience overlap.

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Exodus had so many different groups of people hating on it.  There was the atheists that just can't enjoy a fictional story, then there were the bible thumpers who thought is was sacreligious and not accurate enough, then there was the people who thought the whole thing was racist because A the main characters were white or B the Egyptians weren't portrayed as black people. Plus the critics totally hated it.  That movie had nothing going for it except the visuals and Christian Bale I guess. 

Edited by Max De Costa
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Exodus had so many different groups of people hating on it.  There was the atheists that just can't enjoy a fictional story, then there were the bible thumpers who thought is was sacreligious and not accurate enough, then there was the people who thought the whole thing was racist because A the main characters were white or B the Egyptians weren't portrayed as black people. Plus the critics totally hated it.  That movie had nothing going for it except the visuals and Christian Bale I guess. 

 

The reason why Exodus failed is because it tried to please both the atheists & the bible folks and failed at both. Exodus can be about mass environmental damage due to excessive pride & ego of the pharaohs pushing the limits of constructing vanity projects & over-exploitation of labour and the natural resources. All is fine, rational and consistent until Scott includes the inexplicably supernatural scene where

children are magically killed by a .....giant shadow?

which is included solely to please the bible purists. The movie looks spectacular & the actors do well with the limited script but Scott's movie is seriously lacking in narrative drive, suspense & drama. They should take the core idea of Exodus story and choose a different setting, genre, period to set the story in. You can do a scifi, action thriller, post-apocalyptic adventures. For example,  James Cameron's Terminator has elements of Biblical narratives: the Big War, angels announcing the arrival of the chosen one, the idea of a messiah, John Connor= J.C. = Jesus Christ. 

Edited by zackzack
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For all the complaints that October is way too crowded this year (which I won't disagree with), do any of these movies really scream "surefire blockbusters"? Sure, Bridge of Spies will likely do really well, but the sky is most certainly not the limit for a Spielberg/Hanks movie. This isn't 2002.

It reminds me of 2003.

A lot of solid hits with everything doing decent

The Martian

The Walk

Steve Jobs

Pan

Bridge of Spies

Crimson Peak

Goosebumps

7 solid $70 million+ grossers with a few $25-45 millions to provide backup

The Martian, Pan, Bridge of Spies and Crimson Peak target a diverse enough range of demos where each could do $110 million+ DOM without hurting one another

Martian - teens/young adults/older adults

Pan - kids

Bridge of Spies - older adults

Crimson Peak - young adults/Del Toro fanatics/horror crowd

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